Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

On the nature of power flow equations in security analysis

The power system network is assumed to be in steady-state even during low frequency transients. However, depending on generator dynamics, and toad and control characteristics, the system model and the nature of power flow equations can vary The nature of power flow equations describing the system during a contingency is investigated in detail. It is shown that under some mild assumptions on load-voltage characteristics, the power flow equations can be decoupled in an exact manner. When the generator dynamics are considered, the solutions for the load voltages are exact if load nodes are not directly connected to each other

Optimal hydrothermal load flow: Formulation and a successive approximation solution for fixed head systems

This paper deals with the optimal load flow problem in a fixed-head hydrothermal electric power system. Equality constraints on the volume of water available for active power generation at the hydro plants as well as inequality constraints on the reactive power generation at the voltage controlled buses are imposed. Conditions for optimal load flow are derived and a successive approximation algorithm for solving the optimal generation schedule is developed. Computer implementation of the algorithm is discussed, and the results obtained from the computer solution of test systems are presented.

Design of a Near Optimum Regulator for a Power Plant

For systems which can be decomposed into slow and fast subsystems, a near optimum linear state regulator consisting of two subsystem regulators can be developed. Depending upon the desired criteria, either a short term (fast controller) or a long term controller (slow controller) can be easily designed with minimum computational costs. Using this approach an example of a power system supplying a cyclic load is studied and the performance of the different controllers are compared.

Ranking of Prospective New Generation Location for a Power Network in a Deregulated System

In developing countries high rate of growth in demand of electric energy is felt, and so the addition of new generating units becomes necessary. In deregulated power systems private generating stations are encouraged to add new generations. Finding the appropriate location of new generator to be installed can be obtained by running repeated power flows, carrying system studies like analyzing the voltage profile, voltage stability, loss analysis etc. In this paper a new methodology is proposed which will mainly consider the existing network topology into account. A concept of T-index is introduced in this paper, which considers the electrical distances between generator and load nodes.This index is used for ranking significant new generation expansion locations and also indicates the amount of permissible generations that can be installed at these new locations. This concept facilitates for the medium and long term planning of power generation expansions within the available transmission corridors. Studies carried out on a sample 7-bus system, EHV equivalent 24-bus system and IEEE 39 bus system are presented for illustration purpose.

Negative sequence compensation within fundamental positive sequence reference frame for a stiff micro-grid generation in a wind power system using slip ring induction machine

An isolated wind power generation scheme using slip ring induction machine (SRIM) is proposed. The proposed scheme maintains constant load voltage and frequency irrespective of the wind speed or load variation. The power circuit consists of two back-to-back connected inverters with a common dc link, where one inverter is directly connected to the rotor side of SRIM and the other inverter is connected to the stator side of the SRIM through LC filter. Developing a negative sequence compensation method to ensure that, even under the presence of unbalanced load, the generator experiences almost balanced three-phase current and most of the unbalanced current is directed through the stator side converter is the focus here. The SRIM controller varies the speed of the generator with variation in the wind speed to extract maximum power. The difference of the generated power and the load power is either stored in or extracted from a battery bank, which is interfaced to the common dc link through a multiphase bidirectional fly-back dc-dc converter. The SRIM control scheme, maximum power point extraction algorithm and the fly-back converter topology are incorporated from available literature. The proposed scheme is both simulated and experimentally verified.

Concepts of Static Var System Control For Enhancing Power Transfer in Long Transmission Lines

This paper is concerned with the influence of different levels of complexity in modelling various constituent subsystems on the dynamic stability of power systems compensated by static var systems (SVS) operating on pure voltage control. The system components investigated include thyristor controlled reactor (TCR) transients, SVS delays, network transients, the synchronous generator and automatic voltage regulator (AVR). An overall model is proposed which adequately describes the system performance for small signal perturbations. The SVS performance is validated through detailed nonlinear simulation on a physical simulator.

Analysis of Torsional Interactions with Power System Stabilizer

Torsional interactions can occur due to the speed input Power System Stabilizer (PSS) that are primarily used to damp low frequency oscillations. The solution to this problem can be either in the form of providing a torsional filter or developing an alternate signal for the PSS. This paper deals with the formulation of a linearized state space model of the system and study of the interactions using eigenvalue analysis. The effects of the parameters of PSS and control signals on the damping of torsional modes are investigated.

A structure-preserving energy function for stability analysis of AC/DC systems

Direct stability analysis ofAC/DC power systems using a structure-preserving energy function (SPEF) is proposed in this paper. The system model considered retains the load buses thereby enabling the representation of nonlinear voltage dependent loads. TheHVDC system is represented with the same degree of detail as is normally done in transient stability simulation. The converter controllers can be represented by simplified or detailed models. Two or multi-terminalDC systems can be considered. The stability analysis is illustrated with a 3-machine system example and encouraging results have been obtained.

Critical earthquake input power spectral density function models for engineering structures

The problem of determining optimal power spectral density models for earthquake excitation which satisfy constraints on total average power, zero crossing rate and which produce the highest response variance in a given linear system is considered. The solution to this problem is obtained using linear programming methods. The resulting solutions are shown to display a highly deterministic structure and, therefore, fail to capture the stochastic nature of the input. A modification to the definition of critical excitation is proposed which takes into account the entropy rate as a measure of uncertainty in the earthquake loads. The resulting problem is solved using calculus of variations and also within linear programming framework. Illustrative examples on specifying seismic inputs for a nuclear power plant and a tall earth dam are considered and the resulting solutions are shown to be realistic.

Power Flow Analysis in MTDC-AC System—A New Approach

This paper presents a new approach to the power flow analysis in steady state for multiterminal DC-AC systems. A flexible and practical choice of per unit system is used to formulate the DC network and converter equations. A converter is represented by Norton's equivalent of a current source in parallel with the commutation resistance. Unlike in previous literature, the DC network equations are used to derive the controller equations for the DC system using a subset of specifications. The specifications considered are current or power at all terminals except the slack terminal where the DC voltage is specified. The control equations are solved by Newton's method, using the current injections at the converter terminals as state variables. Further, a systematic approach to the handling of constraints is proposed by identifying the priorities in rescheduling of the specified variables. The methodology is illustrated by example of a 5 terminal DC system.

Integrated Reservoir Operation Modeling for Irrigation Systems - A Multi-Objective Approach

An integrated reservoir operation model is presented for developing effective operational policies for irrigation water management. In arid and semi-arid climates, owing to dynamic changes in the hydroclimatic conditions within a season, the fixed cropping pattern with conventional operating policies, may have considerable impact on the performance of the irrigation system and may affect the economics of the farming community. For optimal allocation of irrigation water in a season, development of effective mathematical models may guide the water managers in proper decision making and consequently help in reducing the adverse effects of water shortage and crop failure problems. This paper presents a multi-objective integrated reservoir operation model for multi-crop irrigation system. To solve the multi-objective model, a recent swarm intelligence technique, namely elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (EM-MOPSO) has been used and applied to a case study in India. The method evolves effective strategies for irrigation crop planning and operation policies for a reservoir system, and thereby helps farming community in improving crop benefits and water resource usage in the reservoir command area.

Fault-Diagnostic System using Support Vector Machines for Power Transmission Systems

This paper presents an approach for identifying the faulted line section and fault location on transmission systems using support vector machines (SVMs) for diagnosis/post-fault analysis purpose. Power system disturbances are often caused by faults on transmission lines. When fault occurs on a transmission system, the protective relay detects the fault and initiates the tripping operation, which isolates the affected part from the rest of the power system. Based on the fault section identified, rapid and corrective restoration procedures can thus be taken to minimize the power interruption and limit the impact of outage on the system. The approach is particularly important for post-fault diagnosis of any mal-operation of relays following a disturbance in the neighboring line connected to the same substation. This may help in improving the fault monitoring/diagnosis process, thus assuring secure operation of the power systems. In this paper we compare SVMs with radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) in data sets corresponding to different faults on a transmission system. Classification and regression accuracy is reported for both strategies. Studies on a practical 24-Bus equivalent EHV transmission system of the Indian Southern region is presented for indicating the improved generalization with the large margin classifiers in enhancing the efficacy of the chosen model.

Magnetic arm-switch-based three-phase series-shunt compensated quality AC power supply

This study presents a novel magnetic arm-switch-based integrated magnetic circuit for a three-phase series-shunt compensated uninterruptible power supply (UPS). The magnetic circuit acts as a common interacting field for a number of energy ports, viz., series inverter, shunt inverter, grid and load. The magnetic arm-switching technique ensures equivalent series or shunt connection between the inverters. In normal grid mode (stabiliser mode), the series inverter is used for series voltage correction and the shunt one for current correction. The inverters and the load are effectively connected in parallel when the grid power is not available. These inverters are then used to share the load power. The operation of the inverters in parallel is ensured by the magnetic arm-switching technique. This study also includes modelling of the magnetic circuit. A graphical technique called bond graph is used to model the system. In this model, the magnetic circuit is represented in terms of gyrator-capacitors. Therefore the model is also termed as gyrator-capacitor model. The model is used to extract the dynamic equations that are used to simulate the system using MATLAB/SIMULINK. This study also discusses a synchronously rotating reference frame-based control technique that is used for the control of the series and shunt inverters in different operating modes. Finally, the gyrator-capacitor model is validated by comparing the simulated and experimental results.