Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Estimates of site response based on spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations in the source zone of 2001 Bhuj earthquake

We investigated the site response characteristics of Kachchh rift basin over the meizoseismal area of the 2001, Mw 7.6, Bhuj (NW India) earthquake using the spectral ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations. Using the available knowledge on the regional geology of Kachchh and well documented ground responses from the earthquake, we evaluated the H/V curves pattern across sediment filled valleys and uplifted areas generally characterized by weathered sandstones. Although our HIV curves showed a largely fuzzy nature, we found that the hierarchical clustering method was useful for comparing large numbers of response curves and identifying the areas with similar responses. Broad and plateau shaped peaks of a cluster of curves within the valley region suggests the possibility of basin effects within valley. Fundamental resonance frequencies (f(0)) are found in the narrow range of 0.1-2.3 Hz and their spatial distribution demarcated the uplifted regions from the valleys. In contrary, low HIV peak amplitudes (A(0) = 2-4) were observed on the uplifted areas and varying values (2-9) were found within valleys. Compared to the amplification factors, the liquefaction indices (kg) were able to effectively indicate the areas which experienced severe liquefaction. The amplification ranges obtained in the current study were found to be comparable to those obtained from earthquake data for a limited number of seismic stations located on uplifted areas; however the values on the valley region may not reflect their true amplification potential due to basin effects. Our study highlights the practical usefulness as well as limitations of the HIV method to study complex geological settings as Kachchh. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The time finite element as a robust general scheme for solving nonlinear dynamic equations including chaotic systems

Schemes that can be proven to be unconditionally stable in the linear context can yield unstable solutions when used to solve nonlinear dynamical problems. Hence, the formulation of numerical strategies for nonlinear dynamical problems can be particularly challenging. In this work, we show that time finite element methods because of their inherent energy momentum conserving property (in the case of linear and nonlinear elastodynamics), provide a robust time-stepping method for nonlinear dynamic equations (including chaotic systems). We also show that most of the existing schemes that are known to be robust for parabolic or hyperbolic problems can be derived within the time finite element framework; thus, the time finite element provides a unification of time-stepping schemes used in diverse disciplines. We demonstrate the robust performance of the time finite element method on several challenging examples from the literature where the solution behavior is known to be chaotic. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The time finite element as a robust general scheme for solving nonlinear dynamic equations including chaotic systems

Schemes that can be proven to be unconditionally stable in the linear context can yield unstable solutions when used to solve nonlinear dynamical problems. Hence, the formulation of numerical strategies for nonlinear dynamical problems can be particularly challenging. In this work, we show that time finite element methods because of their inherent energy momentum conserving property (in the case of linear and nonlinear elastodynamics), provide a robust time-stepping method for nonlinear dynamic equations (including chaotic systems). We also show that most of the existing schemes that are known to be robust for parabolic or hyperbolic problems can be derived within the time finite element framework; thus, the time finite element provides a unification of time-stepping schemes used in diverse disciplines. We demonstrate the robust performance of the time finite element method on several challenging examples from the literature where the solution behavior is known to be chaotic. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Damage assessment of basaltic rock mass due to repeated blasting in a railway tunnelling project - A case study

The demand for tunnelling and underground space creation is rapidly growing due to the requirement of civil infrastructure projects and urbanisation. Blasting remains the most inexpensive method of underground excavations in hard rock. Unfortunately, there are no specific safety guidelines available for the blasted tunnels with regards to the threshold limits of vibrations caused by repeated blasting activity in the close proximity. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive study conducted to find out the effect of repeated blast loading on the damage experienced by jointed basaltic rock mass during tunnelling works. Conducting of multiple rounds of blasts for various civil excavations in a railway tunnel imparted repeated loading on rock mass of sidewall and roof of the tunnel. The blast induced damage was assessed by using vibration attenuation equations of charge weight scaling law and measured by borehole extensometers and borehole camera. Ground vibrations of each blasting round were also monitored by triaxial geophones installed near the borehole extensometers. The peak particle velocity (V-max) observations and plastic deformations from borehole extensometers were used to develop a site specific damage model. The study reveals that repeated dynamic loading imparted on the exposed tunnel from subsequent blasts, in the vicinity, resulted in rock mass damage at lesser vibration levels than the critical peak particle velocity (V-cr). It was found that, the repeated blast loading resulted in the near-field damage due to high frequency waves and far-field damage due to low frequency waves. The far field damage, after 45-50 occurrences of blast loading, was up to 55% of the near-field damage in basaltic rock mass. The findings of the study clearly indicate that the phenomena of repeated blasting with respect to number of cycles of loading should be taken into consideration for proper assessment of blast induced damage in underground excavations.

Hingeless-rotor aeromechanical stability in axial and forward flight with wake dynamics

A finite-state wake model is used to investigate aeromechanical stability of hingeless-rotor helicopters in the ground-contact, hover and trimmed-night conditions. The investigation covers three items: (1) the convergence of the damping with increasing number of wake harmonics for the lag regressing, and body pitch and roll modes; (2) a parametric study of the damping over a range of thrust level, advance ratio and number of blades; and (3) correlations, primarily with the damping and frequency measurements of these lag and body modes. The convergence and parametric studies are conducted in the hover and trimmed-flight conditions; they include predictions from the widely used dynamic inflow model. The correlations are conducted in the ground-contact conditions and include predictions from the dynamic inflow and vortex models; recently, this vortex model is proposed for the axial-flight conditions and is used to investigate the coupled free vibrations of rotor flapping and body modes. The convergence and parametric studies show that a finite-state wake model that goes well beyond the dynamic inflow model is required for fairly converged damping, Moreover, the correlations from the finite-state wake, dynamic inflow and vortex models are generally satisfactory.

Infrared Spectra and Conformation of N-Acetylthiourea

Infrared spectra of N-acetylthiourea (ATU) and its N,N,N′-trideuterated compound have been examined in the range 4000–50 cm−1. A complete vibrational assignment with a normal coordinate treatment based on a Urey-Bradley type intramolecular potential function supplemented with valence force function for the out of plane and torsional modes is proposed and the feature of the thioureido vibrations explained. A molecular orbital study by the CNDO/2 method of ATU and its oxygen analog is undertaken and the results are analyzed for a comparative study of the molecular electronic structure and conformation.

Analysis of an internally mountable accelerometer balance system for use with non-isotropic models in shock tunnels

Knowledge of drag force is an important design parameter in aerodynamics. Measurement of aerodynamic forces at hypersonic speed is a challenge and usually ground test facilities like shock tunnels are used to carry out such tests. Accelerometer based force balances are commonly employed for measuring aerodynamic drag around bodies in hypersonic shock tunnels. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of model material on the performance of an accelerometer balance used for measurement of drag in impulse facilities. From the experimental studies performed on models constructed out of Bakelite HYLEM and Aluminum, it is clear that the rigid body assumption does not hold good during the short testing duration available in shock tunnels. This is notwithstanding the fact that the rubber bush used for supporting the model allows unconstrained motion of the model during the short testing time available in the shock tunnel. The vibrations induced in the model on impact loading in the shock tunnel are damped out in metallic model, resulting in a smooth acceleration signal, while the signal become noisy and non-linear when we use non-isotropic materials like Bakelite HYLEM. This also implies that careful analysis and proper data reduction methodologies are necessary for measuring aerodynamic drag for non-metallic models in shock tunnels. The results from the drag measurements carried out using a 60 degrees half angle blunt cone is given in the present analysis.

Vibrational spectra of imidazoline-2-thione and imidazoline-2-one

Raman and infrared spectra of imidazoline-2-thione (IMZT) and imidazoline-2-one (IMZO) have been recorded. Normal coordinate analyses have been performed for all the fundamental vibrations of IMZT, IMZT-d2 and IMZO employing a Urey—Bradley potential function supplemented with valence type force constants for the out of plane modes. The results of the vibrational analyses are discussed in relation to the assignments in related molecules. The vibrational assignments for IMZT and IMZO have been compared with those in structurally similar molecules and the need to obtain more reliable band assignments for some of the molecules considered is emphasised.

Vibrational and 1H NMR spectra of N-(2-pyridyl)-thioformamide and N-(2-pyridyl)thioacetamide

The Raman and infrared spectra of N-(2-pyridyl) thioformamide and N-(2-pyridyl)-thioacetamide have been measured. The assignment of the bands is aided by the complete normal coordinate treatment for all the vibrations of N-(2-pyridyl)thioformamide and its N-deuterated molecule using a Urey—Bradley force function for the in-plane vibrations and a valence force function for the out of plane vibrations. Variable temperature 1H NMR study of the two pyridylthionamides has also been performed. It is inferred that while N-(2-pyridyl)thioformamide favours a cis —CSNH— group, the other compound favours a trans —CSNH— grouping at ambient temperature.