Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Climate change and forests in India: adaptation opportunities and challenges

Climate change is projected to lead to shift of forest types leading to irreversible damage to forests by rendering several species extinct and potentially affecting the livelihoods of local communities and the economy. Approximately 47% and 42% of tropical dry deciduous grids are projected to undergo shifts under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios respectively, as opposed to less than 16% grids comprising of tropical wet evergreen forests. Similarly, the tropical thorny scrub forest is projected to undergo shifts in majority of forested grids under A2 (more than 80%) as well as B2 scenarios (50% of grids). Thus the forest managers and policymakers need to adapt to the ecological as well as the socio-economic impacts of climate change. This requires formulation of effective forest management policies and practices, incorporating climate concerns into long-term forest policy and management plans. India has formulated a large number of innovative and progressive forest policies but a mechanism to ensure effective implementation of these policies is needed. Additional policies and practices may be needed to address the impacts of climate change. This paper discusses an approach and steps involved in the development of an adaptation framework as well as policies, strategies and practices needed for mainstreaming adaptation to cope with projected climate change. Further, the existing barriers which may affect proactive adaptation planning given the scale, accuracy and uncertainty associated with assessing climate change impacts are presented.

Forest policies and programs affecting vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

Due to large scale afforestation programs and forest conservation legislations, India's total forest area seems to have stabilized or even increased. In spite of such efforts, forest fragmentation and degradation continues, with forests being subject to increased pressure due to anthropogenic factors. Such fragmentation and degradation is leading to the forest cover to change from very dense to moderately dense and open forest and 253 km(2) of very dense forest has been converted to moderately dense forest, open forest, scrub and non-forest (during 2005-2007). Similarly, there has been a degradation of 4,120 km(2) of moderately dense forest to open forest, scrub and non-forest resulting in a net loss of 936 km(2) of moderately dense forest. Additionally, 4,335 km(2) of open forest have degraded to scrub and non-forest. Coupled with pressure due to anthropogenic factors, climate change is likely to be an added stress on forests. Forest sector programs and policies are major factors that determine the status of forests and potentially resilience to projected impacts of climate change. An attempt is made to review the forest policies and programs and their implications for the status of forests and for vulnerability of forests to projected climate change. The study concludes that forest conservation and development policies and programs need to be oriented to incorporate climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

Impact of climate change at species level: a case study of teak in India

In this study, we model the long-term effect of climate change on commercially important teak (Tectona grandis) and its productivity in India. This modelling assessment is based on climate projections of the regional climate model of the Hadley Center (HadRM3) and the dynamic vegetation model, IBIS. According to the model projections, 30% of teak grids in India are vulnerable to climate change under both A2 and B2 SRES scenarios because the future climate may not be optimal for teak at these grids. However, the net primary productivity and biomass are expected to increase because of elevated levels of CO2. Given these directions of likely impacts, it is crucial to further investigate the climate change impacts on teak and incorporate such findings into long-term teak plantation programs. This study also demonstrates the feasibility and limitations of assessing the impact of projected climate change at the species level in the tropics.

Implications of climate change on mitigation potential estimates for forest sector in India

Climate change is projected to impact forest ecosystems, including biodiversity and Net Primary Productivity (NPP). National level carbon forest sector mitigation potential estimates are available for India; however impacts of projected climate change are not included in the mitigation potential estimates. Change in NPP (in gC/m(2)/yr) is taken to represent the impacts of climate change. Long term impacts of climate change (2085) on the NPP of Indian forests are available; however no such regional estimates are available for short and medium terms. The present study based on GCM climatology scenarios projects the short, medium and long term impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems especially on NPP using BIOME4 vegetation model. We estimate that under A2 scenario by the year 2030 the NPP changes by (-5) to 40% across different agro-ecological zones (AEZ). By 2050 it increases by 15% to 59% and by 2070 it increases by 34 to 84%. However, under B2 scenario it increases only by 3 to 25%, 3.5 to 34% and (-2.5) to 38% respectively, in the same time periods. The cumulative mitigation potential is estimated to increase by up to 21% (by nearly 1 GtC) under A2 scenario between the years 2008 and 2108, whereas, under B2 the mitigation potential increases only by 14% (646 MtC). However, cumulative mitigation potential estimates obtained from IBIS-a dynamic global vegetation model suggest much smaller gains, where mitigation potential increases by only 6% and 5% during the period 2008 to 2108.

A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Optical properties change in amorphous (As2S3)(0.87)Sb-0.13 thin films by photo and thermal induced process

Exposure with above band gap light and thermal annealing at a temperature near to glass transition temperature, of thermally evaporated amorphous (As2S3)(0.87)Sb-0.13 thin films of 1 mu m thickness, were found to be accompanied by structural effects, which in turn, lead to changes in the optical properties. The optical properties of thin films induced by illumination and annealing were studied by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and Raman spectroscopy. Photo darkening or photo bleaching was observed in the film depending upon the conditions of the light exposure or annealing. These changes of the optical properties are assigned to the change of homopolar bond densities. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Structure evolution and phase change in Ag-5.1 at.% Bi alloy during mechanical alloying

In this paper we explore the enhancement of solubility in a mechanically driven immiscible system experimentally using a mixture of Ag and Bi powders corresponding to a composition of Ag-5.1 at.% Bi. Increase in solubility can be correlated with the combination of sizes of both Ag and Bi at the nanometric scale. It is shown that complete solid solution of Ag-5.1 at.% Bi forms when the respective sizes of :Bi and Ag exceed 13 and 8 nm respectively. We have carried out a thermodynamic analysis of the size- and strain-dependent free energy landscape and compared the results to the initial mixture of microsized particles to rationalize the evolution of Ag solid solution. The agreement indicates that the emerging driving force for the formation of solid solution is primarily due to size reduction rather than the enhanced kinetics of mass transport due to mechanical driving. (c) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of Acta Materialia Inc.

Climate change and agricultrue-An Indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

A Comparative Study of Electrical Switching Behavior of Certain Tellurium based Chalcogenide Thin Films for Phase Change Memory (PCM) Applications

This work describes the electrical switching behavior of three telluride based amorphous chalcogenide thin film samples, Al-Te, Ge-Se-Te and Ge-Te-Si. These amorphous thin films are made using bulk glassy ingots, prepared by conventional melt quenching technique, using flash evaporation technique; while Al-Te sample has been coated in coplanar electrode geometry, Ge-Se-Te and Ge-Te-Si samples have been deposited with sandwich electrodes. It is observed that all the three samples studied, exhibit memory switching behavior in thin film form, with Ge-Te-Si sample exhibiting a faster switching characteristic. The difference seen in the switching voltages of the three samples studied has been understood on the basis of difference in device geometry and thickness. Scanning electron microscopic image of switched region of a representative Ge15Te81Si4 sample shows a structural change and formation of crystallites in the electrode region, which is responsible for making a conducting channel between the two electrodes during switching.

Low electric field, easily reversible electrical set and reset processes in a Ge15Te83Si2 glass for phase change memory applications

We report here an easily reversible set-reset process in a new Ge15Te83Si2 glass that could be a promising candidate for phase change random access memory applications. The I-V characteristics of the studied sample show a comparatively low threshold electric field (E-th) of 7.3 kV/cm. Distinct differences in the type of switching behavior are achieved by means of controlling the on state current. It enables the observation of a threshold type for less than 0.7 mA beyond memory type (set) switching. The set and reset processes have been achieved with a similar magnitude of 1 mA, and with a triangular current pulse for the set process and a short duration rectangular pulse of 10 msec width for the reset operation. Further, a self-resetting effect is seen in this material upon excitation with a saw-tooth/square pulse, and their response of leading and trailing edges are discussed. About 6.5 x 10(4) set-reset cycles have been undertaken without any damage to the device. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. doi: 10.1063/1.3574659]

Laboratory studies on the volume change characteristics of kaolinite contaminated with sodium phosphate/sulfate

Reported distress to an industrial structure from phosphate/sulfate contamination of kaolinitic foundation soil at an industrial location in Southern India prompted this laboratory study. The study examines the short-term effect of sodium sulfate/phosphate contamination on the swell/compression characteristics of a commercial kaolinite. Experimental results showed that the unsaturated contaminated kaolinite specimens exhibited slightly higher swell potentials and lower compressions than the unsaturated uncontaminated kaolinite specimens. It is suggested that the larger double layer promoted by the increased exchangeable sodium ion concentration is responsible for the slightly higher swell potentials and lower compressions of the unsaturated contaminated kaolinite specimens.

Effect of Melt Convection on The Optimum Thermal Design Of Heat Sinks With Phase Change Material

In this paper, the role of melt convection on the performance of heat sinks with phase change material (PCM) is investigated numerically. The heat sink consists of aluminum plate fins embedded in PCM, and is subjected to heat flux supplied from the bottom. A single-domain enthalpy-based CFD model is developed, which is capable of simulating the phase change process and the associated melt convection. The CFD model is coupled with a genetic algorithm for carrying out the optimization. Two cases are considered, namely, one without melt convection (i.e., conduction heat transfer analysis), and the other with convection. It is found that the geometrical optimizations of heat sinks are different for the two cases, indicating the importance of melt convection in the design of heat sinks with PCMs. In the case of conduction analysis, the optimum width of half fin (i.e., sum of half pitch and half fin thickness) is a constant, which is in good agreement with results reported in the literature. On the other hand, if melt convection is considered, the optimum half fin width depends on the effective thermal diffusivity due to conduction and convection. With melt convection, the optimized design results in a significant improvement of operational time.

A Change in the 3(10)- to alpha-Helical Transition Point in the Heptapeptides Containing Sulfur and Selenium

Crystal structures of three heptapeptides Boc-Ala-Leu-Aib-XXX-Ala-Leu-Aib-OMe (where XXX = methionine in peptide A, selenomethionine in peptide B, and S-benzyl cysteine in peptide C) reveal mixed 3(10)-/alpha-helical conformations with R factors of 6.94, 5.79, and 5.98, respectively. All the structures were solved in the P2(1)2(1)2(1) space group. 3(10)- to a-helical transitions are observed in all of these peptides. The helices begin as a 3(10)-helical segment at the N-terminus and then transit for peptides A and C at residue Aib(3) carbonyl (O(3)), while for peptide B the transition occurs at residue Leu(2) carbonyl oxygen (O(2)). There are water molecules associated in the crystal of each of these peptides and they form different types of hydrogen bonding patterns in each crystal. The observations suggest that 3(10)- to alpha-helical transition is sequence dependent in these short heptapeptide sequences.