Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Region-of-interest diffuse optical tomography system

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) using near-infrared light is a promising tool for non-invasive imaging of deep tissue. This technique is capable of quantitative reconstruction of absorption (mu(a)) and scattering coefficient (mu(s)) inhomogeneities in the tissue. The rationale for reconstructing the optical property map is that the absorption coefficient variation provides diagnostic information about metabolic and disease states of the tissue. The aim of DOT is to reconstruct the internal tissue cross section with good spatial resolution and contrast from noisy measurements non-invasively. We develop a region-of-interest scanning system based on DOT principles. Modulated light is injected into the phantom/tissue through one of the four light emitting diode sources. The light traversing through the tissue gets partially absorbed and scattered multiple times. The intensity and phase of the exiting light are measured using a set of photodetectors. The light transport through a tissue is diffusive in nature and is modeled using radiative transfer equation. However, a simplified model based on diffusion equation (DE) can be used if the system satisfies following conditions: (a) the optical parameter of the inhomogeneity is close to the optical property of the background, and (b) mu(s) of the medium is much greater than mu(a) (mu(s) >> mu(a)). The light transport through a highly scattering tissue satisfies both of these conditions. A discrete version of DE based on finite element method is used for solving the inverse problem. The depth of probing light inside the tissue depends on the wavelength of light, absorption, and scattering coefficients of the medium and the separation between the source and detector locations. Extensive simulation studies have been carried out and the results are validated using two sets of experimental measurements. The utility of the system can be further improved by using multiple wavelength light sources. In such a scheme, the spectroscopic variation of absorption coefficient in the tissue can be used to arrive at the oxygenation changes in the tissue. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

On the origin of the inflectional instability of a laminar separation bubble

This is an experimental and theoretical Study of a laminar separation bubble and the associated linear stability mechanisms. Experiments were performed over a flat plate kept in a wind tunnel, with an imposed pressure gradient typical of an aerofoil that would involve a laminar separation bubble. The separation bubble was characterized by measurement of surface-pressure distribution and streamwise velocity using hot-wire anemometry. Single component hot-wire anemometry was also used for a detailed study of the transition dynamics. It was foundthat the so-called dead-air region in the front portion of the bubble corresponded to a region of small disturbance amplitudes, with the amplitude reaching a maximum value close to the reattachment point. An exponential growth rate of the disturbance was seen in the region upstream of the mean maximum height of the bubble, and this was indicative of a linear instability mechanism at work. An infinitesimal disturbance was impulsively introduced into the boundary layer upstream of separation location, and the wave packet was tracked (in an ensemble-averaged sense) while it was getting advected downstream. The disturbance was found to be convective in nature. Linear stability analyses (both the Orr-Sommerfeld and Rayleigh calculations) were performed for mean velocity profiles, starting from an attached adverse-pressure-gradient boundary layer all the way up to the front portion of the separation-bubble region (i.e. up to the end of the dead-air region in which linear evolution of the disturbance could be expected). The conclusion from the present work is that the primary instability mechanism in a separation bubble is inflectional in nature, and its origin can be traced back to upstream of the separation location. In other words, the inviscid inflectional instability of the separated shear layer should be logically seen as an extension of the instability of the upstream attached adverse-pressure-gradient boundary layer. This modifies the traditional view that pegs the origin of the instability in a separation bubble to the detached shear layer Outside the bubble, with its associated Kelvin-Helmholtz mechanism. We contendthat only when the separated shear layer has moved considerably away from the wall (and this happens near the maximum-height location of the mean bubble), a description by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability paradigm, with its associated scaling principles, Could become relevant. We also propose a new scaling for the most amplified frequency for a wall-bounded shear layer in terms of the inflection-point height and the vorticity thickness and show it to be universal.

Genetic characterization of Indian type O FMD virus 3A region in context with host cell preference

The 3A region of foot-and-mouth disease virus has been implicated in host range and virulence. For example, amino acid deletions in the porcinophilic strain (O/TAW/97) at 93-102 aa of the 153 codons long 3A protein have been recognized as the determinant of species specificity. In the present study, 18 type 0 FMDV isolates from India were adapted in different cell culture systems and the 3A sequence was analyzed. These isolates had complete 3A coding sequence (153 aa) and did not exhibit growth restriction in cells based on species of origin. The 3A region was found to be highly conserved at N-terminal half (1-75 aa) but exhibited variability or substitutions towards C-terminal region (80-153). Moreover the amino acid substitutions were more frequent in recent Indian buffalo isolates but none of the Indian isolates showed deletion in 3A protein, which may be the reason for the absence of host specificity in vitro. Further inclusive analysis of 3A region will reveal interesting facts about the variability of FMD virus 3A region in an endemic environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.