Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Region-of-interest diffuse optical tomography system

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) using near-infrared light is a promising tool for non-invasive imaging of deep tissue. This technique is capable of quantitative reconstruction of absorption (mu(a)) and scattering coefficient (mu(s)) inhomogeneities in the tissue. The rationale for reconstructing the optical property map is that the absorption coefficient variation provides diagnostic information about metabolic and disease states of the tissue. The aim of DOT is to reconstruct the internal tissue cross section with good spatial resolution and contrast from noisy measurements non-invasively. We develop a region-of-interest scanning system based on DOT principles. Modulated light is injected into the phantom/tissue through one of the four light emitting diode sources. The light traversing through the tissue gets partially absorbed and scattered multiple times. The intensity and phase of the exiting light are measured using a set of photodetectors. The light transport through a tissue is diffusive in nature and is modeled using radiative transfer equation. However, a simplified model based on diffusion equation (DE) can be used if the system satisfies following conditions: (a) the optical parameter of the inhomogeneity is close to the optical property of the background, and (b) mu(s) of the medium is much greater than mu(a) (mu(s) >> mu(a)). The light transport through a highly scattering tissue satisfies both of these conditions. A discrete version of DE based on finite element method is used for solving the inverse problem. The depth of probing light inside the tissue depends on the wavelength of light, absorption, and scattering coefficients of the medium and the separation between the source and detector locations. Extensive simulation studies have been carried out and the results are validated using two sets of experimental measurements. The utility of the system can be further improved by using multiple wavelength light sources. In such a scheme, the spectroscopic variation of absorption coefficient in the tissue can be used to arrive at the oxygenation changes in the tissue. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Multistation study of nighttime scintillations in low latitudes: Evidence of control by equatorial F region irregularities

VHF nighttime scintillations, recorded during a high solar activity period at a meridian chain of stations covering a magnetic latitude belt of 3°–21°N (420 km subionospheric points) are analyzed to investigate the influence of equatorial spread F irregularities on the occurrence of scintillation at latitudes away from the equator. Observations show that saturated amplitude scintillations start abruptly about one and a half hours after ground sunset and their onset is almost simultaneous at stations whose subionospheric points are within 12°N latitude of the magnetic equator, but is delayed at a station whose subionospheric point is at 21°N magnetic latitude by 15 min to 4 hours. In addition, the occurrence of postsunset scintillations at all the stations is found to be conditional on their prior occurrence at the equatorial station. If no postsunset scintillation activity is seen at the equatorial station, no scintillations are seen at other stations also. The occurrence of scintillations is explained as caused by rising plasma bubbles and associated irregularities over the magnetic equator and the subsequent mapping of these irregularities down the magnetic field lines to the F region of higher latitudes through some instantaneous mechanism; and hence an equatorial control is established on the generation of postsunset scintillation-producing irregularities in the entire low-latitude belt.

The Linker Region in Receptor Guanylyl Cyclases Is a Key Regulatory Module MUTATIONAL ANALYSIS OF GUANYLYL CYCLASE C

Receptor guanylyl cyclases are multidomain proteins, and ligand binding to the extracellular domain increases the levels of intracellular cGMP. The intracellular domain of these receptors is composed of a kinase homology domain (KHD), a linker of similar to 70 amino acids, followed by the C-terminal guanylyl cyclase domain. Mechanisms by which these receptors are allosterically regulated by ligand binding to the extracellular domain and ATP binding to the KHD are not completely understood. Here we examine the role of the linker region in receptor guanylyl cyclases by a series of point mutations in receptor guanylyl cyclase C. The linker region is predicted to adopt a coiled coil structure and aid in dimerization, but we find that the effects of mutations neither follow a pattern predicted for a coiled coil peptide nor abrogate dimerization. Importantly, this region is critical for repressing the guanylyl cyclase activity of the receptor in the absence of ligand and permitting ligand-mediated activation of the cyclase domain. Mutant receptors with high basal guanylyl cyclase activity show no further activation in the presence of non-ionic detergents, suggesting that hydrophobic interactions in the basal and inactive conformation of the guanylyl cyclase domain are disrupted by mutation. Equivalent mutations in the linker region of guanylyl cyclase A also elevated the basal activity and abolished ligand-and detergent-mediated activation. We, therefore, have defined a key regulatory role for the linker region of receptor guanylyl cyclases which serves as a transducer of information from the extracellular domain via the KHD to the catalytic domain.

Analysis of stability of earthen dams in kachchh region, Gujarat, India

The Kachchh region of Gujarat, India bore the brunt of a disastrous earthquake of magnitude M-w=7.6 that occurred on January 26, 2001. The major cause of failure of various structures including earthen dams was noted to be the presence of liquefiable alluvium in the foundation soil. Results of back-analysis of failures of Chang, Tappar, Kaswati and Rudramata earth dams using pseudo-static limit equilibrium approach presented in this paper confirm that the presence of liquefiable layer contributed to lesser factors of safety leading to a base type of failure that was also observed in the field. Following the earthquake, earth dams have been rehabilitated by the concerned authority and it is imperative that the reconstructed sections of earth dams be reanalyzed. It is also increasingly realized that risk assessment of dams in view of the large-scale investment made and probabilistic analysis is necessary. In this study, it is demonstrated that the probabilistic approach when used in conjunction with deterministic approach helps in providing a rational solution for quantification of safety of the dam and in the estimation of risk associated with the dam construction. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of disorder on the exponent in the coherence region in high temperature superconductors

Effect of disorder on the electrical resistance near the superconducting transition temperature in the paracoherence region of high temperature YBa2CU3O7-delta (YBCO) thin film superconductor is reported. For this, c-axis oriented YBa2Cu3O7-delta thin films having superconducting transition width varying between 0.27 K and 6 K were deposited using laser ablation and high pressure oxygen sputtering techniques. Disorder in these films was further created by using 100 MeV oxygen and 200 MeV silver ions with varying fluences. It is observed that the critical exponent in the paracoherence region for films with high transition temperature and small transition width is in agreement with the theoretically predicted value (gamma = 1.33) and is not affected by disorder, while for films with lower transition temperature and larger transition width the value of exponent is much larger as compared to that theoretically predicted and it varies from sample to sample and usually changes with disorder induced by radiation. This difference in the behaviour of the exponent has been explained on the basis of differences in the strength of weak links and the transition between temperatures T. and T, is interpreted as a percolation like transition with disorder. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic characterization of Indian type O FMD virus 3A region in context with host cell preference

The 3A region of foot-and-mouth disease virus has been implicated in host range and virulence. For example, amino acid deletions in the porcinophilic strain (O/TAW/97) at 93-102 aa of the 153 codons long 3A protein have been recognized as the determinant of species specificity. In the present study, 18 type 0 FMDV isolates from India were adapted in different cell culture systems and the 3A sequence was analyzed. These isolates had complete 3A coding sequence (153 aa) and did not exhibit growth restriction in cells based on species of origin. The 3A region was found to be highly conserved at N-terminal half (1-75 aa) but exhibited variability or substitutions towards C-terminal region (80-153). Moreover the amino acid substitutions were more frequent in recent Indian buffalo isolates but none of the Indian isolates showed deletion in 3A protein, which may be the reason for the absence of host specificity in vitro. Further inclusive analysis of 3A region will reveal interesting facts about the variability of FMD virus 3A region in an endemic environment. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total risk rating and stability analysis of embankment dams in the Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India

A method for total risk analysis of embankment dams under earthquake conditions is discussed and applied to the selected embankment dams, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati located in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India, to obtain the seismic hazard rating of the dam site and the risk rating of the structures. Based on the results of the total risk analysis of the dams, coupled non-linear dynamic numerical analyses of the dam sections are performed using acceleration time history record of the Bhuj (India) earthquake as well as five other major earthquakes recorded worldwide. The objective of doing so is to perform the numerical analysis of the dams for the range of amplitude, frequency content and time duration of input motions. The deformations calculated from the numerical analyses are also compared with other approaches available in literature, viz, Makdisi and Seed (1978) approach, Jansen's approach (1990), Swaisgood's method (1995), Bureau's method (1997). Singh et al. approach (2007), and Saygili and Rathje approach (2008) and the results are utilized to foresee the stability of dams in future earthquake scenario. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of three methods for downscaling daily precipitation in the Punjab region

Many downscaling techniques have been developed in the past few years for projection of station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change. This article compares the performances of three downscaling methods, viz. conditional random field (CRF), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) methods in downscaling precipitation in the Punjab region of India, belonging to the monsoon regime. The CRF model is a recently developed method for downscaling hydrological variables in a probabilistic framework, while the SVM model is a popular machine learning tool useful in terms of its ability to generalize and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and predictand. The KNN model is an analogue-type method that queries days similar to a given feature vector from the training data and classifies future days by random sampling from a weighted set of K closest training examples. The models are applied for downscaling monsoon (June to September) daily precipitation at six locations in Punjab. Model performances with respect to reproduction of various statistics such as dry and wet spell length distributions, daily rainfall distribution, and intersite correlations are examined. It is found that the CRF and KNN models perform slightly better than the SVM model in reproducing most daily rainfall statistics. These models are then used to project future precipitation at the six locations. Output from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM3) GCM for three scenarios, viz. A1B, A2, and B1 is used for projection of future precipitation. The projections show a change in probability density functions of daily rainfall amount and changes in the wet and dry spell distributions of daily precipitation. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ultrasound-modulated optical tomography: recovery of amplitude of vibration in the insonified region from boundary measurement of light correlation

We address a certain inverse problem in ultrasound-modulated optical tomography: the recovery of the amplitude of vibration of scatterers [p(r)] in the ultrasound focal volume in a diffusive object from boundary measurement of the modulation depth (M) of the amplitude autocorrelation of light [phi(r, tau)] traversing through it. Since M is dependent on the stiffness of the material, this is the precursor to elasticity imaging. The propagation of phi(r, tau) is described by a diffusion equation from which we have derived a nonlinear perturbation equation connecting p(r) and refractive index modulation [Delta n(r)] in the region of interest to M measured on the boundary. The nonlinear perturbation equation and its approximate linear counterpart are solved for the recovery of p(r). The numerical results reveal regions of different stiffness, proving that the present method recovers p(r) with reasonable quantitative accuracy and spatial resolution. (C) 2011 Optical Society of America

Ultrasound modulated optical tomography: Young's modulus of the insonified region from measurement of natural frequency of vibration

We demonstrate a method to recover the Young's modulus (E) of a tissue-mimicking phantom from measurements of ultrasound modulated optical tomography (UMOT). The object is insonified by a dualbeam, confocal ultrasound transducer (US) oscillating at frequencies f(0) and f(0) + Delta f and the variation of modulation depth (M) in the autocorrelation of light traversed through the focal region of the US transducer against Delta f is measured. From the dominant peaks observed in the above variation, the natural frequencies of the insonified region associated with the vibration along the US transducer axis are deduced. A consequence of the above resonance is that the speckle fluctuation at the resonance frequency has a higher signal-to-noise to ratio (SNR). From these natural frequencies and the associated eigenspectrum of the oscillating object, Young's modulus (E) of the material in the focal region is recovered. The working of this method is confirmed by recovering E in the case of three tissue-mimicking phantoms of different elastic modulus values. (C) 2011 Optical Society of America

Ultrasound Assisted Optical Tomography: Estimation of phase Shift experienced by photon on transit through US insonified region for detection of breast tumor

A Monte Carlo model of ultrasound modulation of multiply scattered coherent light in a highly scattering media has been carried out for estimating the phase shift experienced by a photon beam on its transit through US insonified region. The phase shift is related to the tissue stiffness, thereby opening an avenue for possible breast tumor detection. When the scattering centers in the tissue medium is exposed to a deterministic forcing with the help of a focused ultrasound (US) beam, due to the fact that US-induced oscillation is almost along particular direction, the direction defined by the transducer axis, the scattering events increase, thereby increasing the phase shift experienced by light that traverses through the medium. The phase shift is found to increase with increase in anisotropy g of the medium. However, as the size of the focused region which is the region of interest (ROI) increases, a large number of scattering events take place within the ROI, the ensemble average of the phase shift (Delta phi) becomes very close to zero. The phase of the individual photon is randomly distributed over 2 pi when the scattered photon path crosses a large number of ultrasound wavelengths in the focused region. This is true at high ultrasound frequency (1 MHz) when mean free path length of photon l(s) is comparable to wavelength of US beam. However, at much lower US frequencies (100 Hz), the wavelength of sound is orders of magnitude larger than l(s), and with a high value of g (g 0.9), there is a distinct measurable phase difference for the photon that traverses through the insonified region. Experiments are carried out for validation of simulation results.

Wafer scale fabrication of porous three-dimensional plasmonic metamaterials for the visible region: chiral and beyond

We report on a wafer scale fabrication method of a three-dimensional plasmonic metamaterial with strong chiroptical response in the visible region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The system was comprised of metallic nanoparticles arranged in a helical fashion, with high degree of flexibility over the choice of the underlying material, as well as their geometrical parameters. This resulted in exquisite control over the chiroptical properties, most importantly the spectral signature of the circular dichroism. In spite of the large variability in the arrangement, as well as the size and shape of the constituent nanoparticles, the average chiro-optical response of the material remained uniform across the wafer, thus confirming the suitability of this system as a large area chiral metamaterial. By simply heating the substrate for a few minutes, the geometrical properties of the nanoparticles could be altered, thus providing an additional handle towards tailoring the spectral response of this novel material.

Co-evolution of specific amino acid in sigma 1.2 region and nucleotide base in the discriminator to act as sensors of small molecule effectors of transcription initiation in mycobacteria

The transcription from rrn and a number of other promoters is regulated by initiating ribonucleotides (iNTPs) and guanosine tetra/penta phosphate (p)ppGpp], either by strengthening or by weakening of the RNA polymerase (RNAP)-promoter interactions during initiation. Studies in Escherichia coli revealed the importance of a sequence termed discriminator, located between -10 and the transcription start site of the responsive promoters in this mode of regulation. Instability of the open complex at these promoters is attributed to the lack of stabilizing interactions between the suboptimal discriminator and the 1.2 region of sigma 70 (Sig70) in RNAP holoenzyme. We demonstrate a different pattern of interaction between the promoters and sigma A (SigA) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis to execute similar regulation. Instead of cytosine and methionine, thymine at three nucleotides downstream to -10 element and leucine 232 in SigA are found to be essential for iNTPs and pppGpp mediated response at the rrn and gyr promoters of the organism. The specificity of the interaction is substantiated by mutational replacements, either in the discriminator or in SigA, which abolish the nucleotide mediated regulation in vitro or in vivo. Specific yet distinct bases and the amino acids appear to have co-evolved' to retain the discriminator-sigma 1.2 region regulatory switch operated by iNTPs/pppGpp during the transcription initiation in different bacteria.