Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximum magnitude estimation considering the regional rupture character

The main objective of the paper is to develop a new method to estimate the maximum magnitude (M (max)) considering the regional rupture character. The proposed method has been explained in detail and examined for both intraplate and active regions. Seismotectonic data has been collected for both the regions, and seismic study area (SSA) map was generated for radii of 150, 300, and 500 km. The regional rupture character was established by considering percentage fault rupture (PFR), which is the ratio of subsurface rupture length (RLD) to total fault length (TFL). PFR is used to arrive RLD and is further used for the estimation of maximum magnitude for each seismic source. Maximum magnitude for both the regions was estimated and compared with the existing methods for determining M (max) values. The proposed method gives similar M (max) value irrespective of SSA radius and seismicity. Further seismicity parameters such as magnitude of completeness (M (c) ), ``a'' and ``aEuro parts per thousand b `` parameters and maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) were determined for each SSA and used to estimate M (max) by considering all the existing methods. It is observed from the study that existing deterministic and probabilistic M (max) estimation methods are sensitive to SSA radius, M (c) , a and b parameters and M (max) (obs) values. However, M (max) determined from the proposed method is a function of rupture character instead of the seismicity parameters. It was also observed that intraplate region has less PFR when compared to active seismic region.

Novel anti IGFBP2 single chain variable fragment inhibits glioma cell migration and invasion

Insulin like growth factor binding protein 2 (IGFBP2) is highly up regulated in glioblastoma (GBM) tissues and has been one of the prognostic indicators. There are compelling evidences suggesting important roles for IGFBP2 in glioma cell proliferation, migration and invasion. Extracellular IGFBP2 through its carboxy terminal arginine glycine aspartate (RGD) motif can bind to cell surface alpha 5 beta 1 integrins and activate pathways downstream to integrin signaling. This IGFBP2 activated integrin signaling is known to play a crucial role in IGFBP2 mediated invasion of glioma cells. Hence a molecular inhibitor of carboxy terminal domain of IGFBP2 which can inhibit IGFBP2-cell surface interaction is of great therapeutic importance. In an attempt to develop molecular inhibitors of IGFBP2, we screened single chain variable fragment (scFv) phage display libraries, Tomlinson I (Library size 1.47 x 10(8)) and Tomlinson J (Library size 1.37 x 10(8)) using human recombinant IGFBP2. After screening we obtained three IGFBP2 specific binders out of which one scFv B7J showed better binding to IGFBP2 at its carboxy terminal domain, blocked IGFBP2-cell surface association, reduced activity of matrix metalloprotease 2 in the conditioned medium of glioma cells and inhibited IGFBP2 induced migration and invasion of glioma cells. We demonstrate for the first time that in vitro inhibition of extracellular IGFBP2 activity by using human scFv results in significant reduction of glioma cell migration and invasion. Therefore, the inhibition of IGFBP2 can serve as a potential therapeutic strategy in the management of GBM.

On the ultrafast charge migration and subsequent charge directed reactivity in Cl center dot center dot center dot N halogen-bonded clusters following vertical ionization

In this article, we have presented ultrafast charge transfer dynamics through halogen bonds following vertical ionization of representative halogen bonded clusters. Subsequent hole directed reactivity of the radical cations of halogen bonded clusters is also discussed. Furthermore, we have examined effect of the halogen bond strength on the electron-electron correlation-and relaxation-driven charge migration in halogen bonded complexes. For this study, we have selected A-Cl (A represents F, OH, CN, NH2, CF3, and COOH substituents) molecules paired with NH3 (referred as ACl:NH3 complex): these complexes exhibit halogen bonds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on purely electron correlation-and relaxation-driven ultrafast (attosecond) charge migration dynamics through halogen bonds. Both density functional theory and complete active space self-consistent field theory with 6-31+G(d, p) basis set are employed for this work. Upon vertical ionization of NCCl center dot center dot center dot NH3 complex, the hole is predicted to migrate from the NH3-end to the ClCN-end of the NCCl center dot center dot center dot NH3 complex in approximately 0.5 fs on the D-0 cationic surface. This hole migration leads to structural rearrangement of the halogen bonded complex, yielding hydrogen bonding interaction stronger than the halogen bonding interaction on the same cationic surface. Other halogen bonded complexes, such as H2NCl:NH3, F3CCl:NH3, and HOOCCl:NH3, exhibit similar charge migration following vertical ionization. On the contrary, FCl:NH3 and HOCl:NH3 complexes do not exhibit any charge migration following vertical ionization to the D-0 cation state, pointing to interesting halogen bond strength-dependent charge migration. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

A recursive multi-scaling approach to regional flood frequency analysis

Scaling approaches are widely used by hydrologists for Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) of floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged site(s) in river basins. This paper proposes a Recursive Multi-scaling (RMS) approach to RFA that overcomes limitations of conventional simple- and multi-scaling approaches. The approach involves identification of a separate set of attributes corresponding to each of the sites (being considered in the study area/region) in a recursive manner according to their importance, and utilizing those attributes to construct effective regional regression relationships to estimate statistical raw moments (SMs) of peak flows. The SMs are then utilized to arrive at parameters of flood frequency distribution and quantile estimate(s) corresponding to target return period(s). Effectiveness of the RMS approach in arriving at flood quantile estimates for ungauged sites is demonstrated through leave-one-out cross-validation experiment on watersheds in Indiana State, USA. Results indicate that the approach outperforms index-flood based Region-of-Influence approach, simple- and multi-scaling approaches and a multiple linear regression method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Regional research priorities in brain and nervous system disorders

The characteristics of neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders in low-and middle-income countries are unique and the burden that they have will be different from country to country. Many of the differences are explained by the wide variation in population demographics and size, poverty, conflict, culture, land area and quality, and genetics. Neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders that result from, or are worsened by, a lack of adequate nutrition and infectious disease still afflict much of sub-Saharan Africa, although disorders related to increasing longevity, such as stroke, are on the rise. In the Middle East and North Africa, major depressive disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder are a primary concern because of the conflict-ridden environment. Consanguinity is a serious concern that leads to the high prevalence of recessive disorders in the Middle East and North Africa and possibly other regions. The burden of these disorders in Latin American and Asian countries largely surrounds stroke and vascular disease, dementia and lifestyle factors that are influenced by genetics. Although much knowledge has been gained over the past 10 years, the epidemiology of the conditions in low-and middle-income countries still needs more research. Prevention and treatments could be better informed with more longitudinal studies of risk factors. Challenges and opportunities for ameliorating nervous-system disorders can benefit from both local and regional research collaborations. The lack of resources and infrastructure for health-care and related research, both in terms of personnel and equipment, along with the stigma associated with the physical or behavioural manifestations of some disorders have hampered progress in understanding the disease burden and improving brain health. Individual countries, and regions within countries, have specific needs in terms of research priorities.

Tracking the migration of the Indian continent using the carbonate clumped isotope technique on Phanerozoic soil carbonates

Approximately 140 million years ago, the Indian plate separated from Gondwana and migrated by almost 90 degrees latitude to its current location, forming the Himalayan-Tibetan system. Large discrepancies exist in the rate of migration of Indian plate during Phanerozoic. Here we describe a new approach to paleo-latitudinal reconstruction based on simultaneous determination of carbonate formation temperature and delta O-18 of soil carbonates, constrained by the abundances of C-13-O-18 bonds in palaeosol carbonates. Assuming that the palaeosol carbonates have a strong relationship with the composition of the meteoric water, delta O-18 carbonate of palaeosol can constrain paleo-latitudinal position. Weighted mean annual rainfall delta O-18 water values measured at several stations across the southern latitudes are used to derive a polynomial equation: delta(18)Ow = -0.006 x (LAT)(2) - 0.294 x (LAT) - 5.29 which is used for latitudinal reconstruction. We use this approach to show the northward migration of the Indian plate from 46.8 +/- 5.8 degrees S during the Permian (269 M. y.) to 30 +/- 11 degrees S during the Triassic (248 M. y.), 14.7 +/- 8.7 degrees S during the early Cretaceous (135 M. y.), and 28 +/- 8.8 degrees S during the late Cretaceous ( 68 M. y.). Soil carbonate delta O-18 provides an alternative method for tracing the latitudinal position of Indian plate in the past and the estimates are consistent with the paleo-magnetic records which document the position of Indian plate prior to 135 +/- 3 M. y.

Repeat-Associated Fission Yeast-Like Regional Centromeres in the Ascomycetous Budding Yeast Candida tropicalis

The centromere, on which kinetochore proteins assemble, ensures precise chromosome segregation. Centromeres are largely specified by the histone H3 variant CENP-A (also known as Cse4 in yeasts). Structurally, centromere DNA sequences are highly diverse in nature. However, the evolutionary consequence of these structural diversities on de novo CENP-A chromatin formation remains elusive. Here, we report the identification of centromeres, as the binding sites of four evolutionarily conserved kinetochore proteins, in the human pathogenic budding yeast Candida tropicalis. Each of the seven centromeres comprises a 2 to 5 kb non-repetitive mid core flanked by 2 to 5 kb inverted repeats. The repeat-associated centromeres of C. tropicalis all share a high degree of sequence conservation with each other and are strikingly diverged from the unique and mostly non-repetitive centromeres of related Candida species-Candida albicans, Candida dubliniensis, and Candida lusitaniae. Using a plasmid-based assay, we further demonstrate that pericentric inverted repeats and the underlying DNA sequence provide a structural determinant in CENP-A recruitment in C. tropicalis, as opposed to epigenetically regulated CENP-A loading at centromeres in C. albicans. Thus, the centromere structure and its influence on de novo CENP-A recruitment has been significantly rewired in closely related Candida species. Strikingly, the centromere structural properties along with role of pericentric repeats in de novo CENP-A loading in C. tropicalis are more reminiscent to those of the distantly related fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Taken together, we demonstrate, for the first time, fission yeast-like repeat-associated centromeres in an ascomycetous budding yeast.