A macroeconomic analysis of adaptation to climate change impacts on forests in India

We examine the potential for adaptation to climate change in Indian forests, and derive the macroeconomic implications of forest impacts and adaptation in India. The study is conducted by integrating results from the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS and the computable general equilibrium model GRACE-IN, which estimates macroeconomic implications for six zones of India. By comparing a reference scenario without climate change with a climate impact scenario based on the IPCC A2-scenario, we find major variations in the pattern of change across zones. Biomass stock increases in all zones but the Central zone. The increase in biomass growth is smaller, and declines in one more zone, South zone, despite higher stock. In the four zones with increases in biomass growth, harvest increases by only approximately 1/3 of the change in biomass growth. This is due to two market effects of increased biomass growth. One is that an increase in biomass growth encourages more harvest given other things being equal. The other is that more harvest leads to higher supply of timber, which lowers market prices. As a result, also the rent on forested land decreases. The lower prices and rent discourage more harvest even though they may induce higher demand, which increases the pressure on harvest. In a less perfect world than the model describes these two effects may contribute to an increase in the risk of deforestation because of higher biomass growth. Furthermore, higher harvest demands more labor and capital input in the forestry sector. Given total supply of labor and capital, this increases the cost of production in all the other sectors, although very little indeed. Forestry dependent communities with declining biomass growth may, however, experience local unemployment as a result.

Integrated modelling approaches to analysis of climate change impacts on forests and forest management

This paper reviews integrated economic and ecological models that address impacts and adaptation to climate change in the forest sector. Early economic model studies considered forests as one out of many possible impacts of climate change, while ecological model studies tended to limit the economic impacts to fixed price-assumptions. More recent studies include broader representations of both systems, but there are still few studies which can be regarded fully integrated. Full integration of ecological and economic models is needed to address forest management under climate change appropriately. The conclusion so far is that there are vast uncertainties about how climate change affects forests. This is partly due to the limited knowledge about the global implications of the social and economical adaptation to the effects of climate change on forests.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Growing pseudo-eigenmodes and positive logarithmic norms in rotating shear flows

Rotating shear flows, when angular momentum increases and angular velocity decreases as functions of radiation coordinate, are hydrodynamically stable under linear perturbation. The Keplerian flow is an example of such a system, which appears in an astrophysical context. Although decaying eigenmodes exhibit large transient energy growth of perturbation which could govern nonlinearity in the system, the feedback of inherent instability to generate turbulence seems questionable. We show that such systems exhibiting growing pseudo-eigenmodes easily reach an upper bound of growth rate in terms of the logarithmic norm of the involved non-normal operators, thus exhibiting feedback of inherent instability. This supports the existence of turbulence of hydrodynamic origin in the Keplerian accretion disc in astrophysics. Hence, this answers the question of the mismatch between the linear theory and experimental/observed data and helps in resolving the outstanding question of the origin of turbulence therein.

Influence of Bi 3+ ions in enhancing the magnitude of positive temperature coefficients of resistance in n-BaTiO3 ceramics

Bi3+ ions substituting at Ba-sites in a limited concentration range with another donor dopant occupying the Ti-sites in polycrystalline BaTiO3 enhanced the positive temperature coefficient of resistance (PTCR) by over seven orders of magnitude. These ceramics did not require normal post sinter annealing or a change to an oxygen atmosphere during annealing. These ceramics had low porosities coupled with better stabilities to large applied electric fields and chemically reducing atmospheres. Bi3+ ions limited the grain growth to less than 8 mum in size, they enhanced the concentration of acceptor-type trap centres at the grain-boundary-layer regions and maintained complete tetragonality at low grain sizes in BaTiO3 ceramics.

Climate change and agricultrue-An Indian perspective

In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.

On the performance of stabilized ?-nickel hydroxide as a nickel-positive electrode in alkaline storage batteries

The internal resistance of a stabilized alpha-nickel hydroxide electrode is found to be lower than that of a beta-nickel hydroxide electrode as shown from studies of the open-circuit potential-time transients at all states-of-charge. Nevertheless, the self-discharge rates of the former is higher. Gasometric studies reveal that the charging efficiency of the alpha-nickel hydroxide electrode is higher than that of the beta-nickel hydroxide electrode.

The two-step positive temperature coefficient in resistance characteristics of n-(Ba,Pb)TiO3 ceramics created through inclusion of grain boundary modifier additives

Donor-doped n-(Ba,Pb)TiO3 polycrystalline ceramics exhibit distinctly two-step positive temperature coefficient of resistance (PTCR) characteristics when formulated with suitable combinations of B2O3 and Al2O3 as grain boundary modifiers by heterogeneous addition. B2O3 or Al2O3 when added singularly resulted in either steep or broad PTCR jumps respectively across the phase transition. The two-step PTCR is attributed to the activation of the acceptor states, created through B2O3 and Al2O3, for various temperature regimes above the Curie point (T-c). The changing pattern of trap states is evident from the presence of Ti4+-O--Al3+ type hole centres in the grain boundary layer regions, identified in the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectra. That charge redistribution occurs among the inter-band gap defect states on crossing the Curie temperature is substantiated by the temperature coefficient in the EPR results. Capacitance-voltage results clearly show that there is an increase in the density of trap states with the addition of B2O3 and Al2O3. The spread in energy values of these trap states is evident from the large change in barrier height (phi similar or equal to 0.25-0.6 eV) between 500 and 650 K.

Advantage of the ether linkage between the positive charge and the cholesteryl skeleton in cholesterol-based amphiphiles as vectors for gene delivery

Twelve novel cationic cholesterol derivatives with different linkage types between the cationic headgroup and the cholesteryl backbone have been developed. These have been tested for their efficacies as gene transfer agents as mixtures with dioleoyl phosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE). A pronounced improvement in transfection efficiency was observed when the cationic center was linked to the steroid backbone using an ether type bond. Among these, cholest-5-en-3b-oxyethane-N, N,N-trimethylammonium bromide (2a) and cholest-5-en-3b-oxyethane-N, N-dimethyl-N-2-hydroxyethylammonium bromide (3d) showed transfection efficiencies considerably greater than commercially available reagents such as Lipofectin or Lipofectamine. To achieve transfection, 3d did not require DOPE. Increasing hydration at the headgroup level for both ester- and ether-linked amphiphiles resulted in progressive loss of transfection efficiency. Transfection efficiency was also greatly reduced when a 'disorder'-inducing chain like an oleyl (cis-9-octadecenyl) segment was added to these cholesteryl amphiphiles. Importantly, the transfection ability of 2a with DOPE in the presence of serum was significantly greater than for a commercially available reagent, Lipofectamine. This suggests that these novel cholesterol-based amphiphiles might prove promising in applications involving liposome-mediated gene transfection. This investigation demonstrates the importance of structural features at the molecular level for the design of cholesterol-based gene delivery reagents that would aid the development of newer, more efficient formulations based on this class of molecules.

Aerosol radiative forcing over land: effect of surface and cloud reflection

It is now clearly understood that atmospheric aerosols have a significant impact on climate due to their important role in modifying the incoming solar and outgoing infrared radiation. The question of whether aerosol cools (negative forcing) or warms (positive forcing) the planet depends on the relative dominance of absorbing aerosols. Recent investigations over the tropical Indian Ocean have shown that, irrespective of the comparatively small percentage contribution in optical depth (similar to11%), soot has an important role in the overall radiative forcing. However, when the amount of absorbing aerosols such as soot are significant, aerosol optical depth and chemical composition are not the only determinants of aerosol climate effects, but the altitude of the aerosol layer and the altitude and type of clouds are also important. In this paper, the aerosol forcing in the presence of clouds and the effect of different surface types (ocean, soil, vegetation, and different combinations of soil and vegetation) are examined based on model simulations, demonstrating that aerosol forcing changes sign from negative (cooling) to positive (warming) when reflection from below (either due to land or clouds) is high.

Tracking and erosion resistance of silicone rubber nanocomposites under positive and negative dc voltages

ASTM D2303 standard provides a method for evaluating the tracking and erosion resistance of polymeric insulators under ac voltages. In this paper, the above method has been extended for evaluating the performance of the insulators under dc stresses. Tests were conducted on polymeric silicone rubber (SR) insulators under positive and negative dc stresses. Micron sized Alumina trihydrate (uATH) and nano sized Alumina (nALU) were used as fillers in SR matrix to improve the resistance to tracking and erosion. Results suggest that SR composites perform better under negative dc than under positive dc voltages. Eroded mass and leakage current data support the above result. Samples with low concentration of nano alumina fillers performed on par with the samples with large loadings of uATH.

Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Electrochemically deposited crystalline thin film of polyaniline on nickel for redox reactions at positive potentials

Redox reactions which occur at positive potentials such as ferrous/ferric, hydroquinone/quinone, ferrocyanide/ferricyanide etc. in aqueous acidic electrolytes cannot be studied on non-platinum metals, for example, a Ni electrode. On the contrary, these reactions occur on polyaniline (PANI) modified Ni electrodes, as evidenced from cyclic voltammetry, amperometry and steady-state polarization experiments. Under identical experimental conditions of scan rate (v) and concentration (C), the peak current density (i(p)) values of Fe2+/Fe3+ redox reaction are greater on the PANI modified Ni than on Pt. Additionally, the peak potential separation (DeltaE(p)) of the voltammogram is lesser on the PANI modified Ni. With an increase in thickness of the PANI, DeltaE(p) increases suggesting that the redox reactions tend to depart from the reversibility. Scanning electron micrographs reveal the presence of a crystalline deposit of PANI on Ni when the thickness of PANI is about 0.08 mum. However, the PANI becomes amorphous and porous at higher thickness values. Raman spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction studies corroborate the observations made out of scanning electron microscopy. Higher catalytic activity of PANI is attributed to crystalline nature of PANI on Ni. Exchange current density and standard rate constant of Fe2+/Fe(3+)redox reaction are evaluated. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.