Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Long-term effects of Macroternies termites, herbivores and annual early fire on woody undergrowth community in Sudanian woodland, Burkina Faso

Termites, herbivores and fire are recognized as major guilds that structure woody plant communities in African savanna and woodland ecosystems. An understanding of their interaction is crucial to design appropriate management regimes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term impacts of herbivore, fire and termite activities on regeneration of trees. Permanent experimental quadrats were established in 1992 in the Sudanian woodland of Burkina Faso subjected to grazing by livestock and annual early fire and the control. Within the treatment quadrats, an inventory of the woody undergrowth community was conducted on termitaria occupied by Macrotermes subhyalinus, extended termitosphere (within 5 m radius from the mound base) and adjacent area (beyond 5 m from the mound base). Hierarchical analysis was performed to determine significant differences in species richness, abundance and diversity indices among vegetation patches within fire and herbivory treatments. Grazed quadrats had significantly (P < 0.001) more species and stem density of woody undergrowth than non-grazed quadrats but maintained similar level of species richness and stem density of woody undergrowth on termitaria. There were not significant differences (P>0.05) in species richness and stem density between burnt and unburnt quadrats. Termitaria supported a highly diverse woody undergrowth with higher stem density than either the extended termitosphere or rest of quadrats. The density of woody undergrowth was significantly related with mature trees of selected species on termitaria (R-2 = 0.593; P<0.001) than that on the extended termitosphere (R-2 = 0.333; P<0.001) and adjacent area (R-2 = 0.197; P<0.001). It can be concluded that termites facilitate the regeneration of woody species while grazing and annual early fire play a minor role in the regeneration of woody species. The current policy that prohibits grazing should be revised to accommodate the interests of livestock herders. (C) 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Medieval pulse of great earthquakes in the central Himalaya: Viewing past activities on the frontal thrust

The Himalaya has experienced three great earthquakes during the last century1934 Nepal-Bihar, 1950 Upper Assam, and arguably the 1905 Kangra. Focus here is on the central Himalayan segment between the 1905 and the 1934 ruptures, where previous studies have identified a great earthquake between thirteenth and sixteenth centuries. Historical data suggest damaging earthquakes in A.D. 1255, 1344, 1505, 1803, and 1833, although their sources and magnitudes remain debated. We present new evidence for a great earthquake from a trench across the base of a 13m high scarp near Ramnagar at the Himalayan Frontal Thrust. The section exposed four south verging fault strands and a backthrust offsetting a broad spectrum of lithounits, including colluvial deposits. Age data suggest that the last great earthquake in the central Himalaya most likely occurred between A.D. 1259 and 1433. While evidence for this rupture is unmistakable, the stratigraphic clues imply an earlier event, which can most tentatively be placed between A.D. 1050 and 1250. The postulated existence of this earlier event, however, requires further validation. If the two-earthquake scenario is realistic, then the successive ruptures may have occurred in close intervals and were sourced on adjacent segments that overlapped at the trench site. Rupture(s) identified in the trench closely correlate with two damaging earthquakes of 1255 and 1344 reported from Nepal. The present study suggests that the frontal thrust in central Himalaya may have remained seismically inactive during the last similar to 700years. Considering this long elapsed time, a great earthquake may be due in the region.

Early postnatal exposure to lithium in vitro induces changes in AMPAR mEPSCs and vesicular recycling at hippocampal glutamatergic synapses

Lithium is an effective mood stabilizer but its use is associated with many side effects. Electrophysiological recordings of miniature excitatory postsynaptic currents (mEPSCs) mediated by glutamate receptor AMPA-subtype (AMPARs) in hippocampal pyramidal neurons revealed that CLi (therapeutic concentration of 1 mM lithium, from days in vitro 4-10) decreased the mean amplitude and mean rectification index (RI) of AMPAR mEPSCs. Lowered mean RI indicate that contribution of Ca2+-permeable AMPARs in synaptic events is higher in CLi neurons (supported by experiments sensitive to Ca2+-permeable AMPAR modulation). Co-inhibiting PKA, GSK-3 beta and glutamate reuptake was necessary to bring about changes in AMPAR mEPSCs similar to that seen in CLi neurons. FM1-43 experiments revealed that recycling pool size was affected in CLi cultures. Results from minimum loading, chlorpromazine treatment and hyperosmotic treatment experiments indicate that endocytosis in CLi is affected while not much difference is seen in modes of exocytosis. CLi cultures did not show the high KCl associated presynaptic potentiation observed in control cultures. This study, by calling attention to long-term lithium-exposure-induced synaptic changes, might have implications in understanding the side effects such as CNS complications occurring in perinatally exposed babies and cognitive dulling seen in patients on lithium treatment.

A Comparative Study of Early Afterdepolarization-Mediated Fibrillation in Two Mathematical Models for Human Ventricular Cells

Early afterdepolarizations (EADs), which are abnormal oscillations of the membrane potential at the plateau phase of an action potential, are implicated in the development of cardiac arrhythmias like Torsade de Pointes. We carry out extensive numerical simulations of the TP06 and ORd mathematical models for human ventricular cells with EADs. We investigate the different regimes in both these models, namely, the parameter regimes where they exhibit (1) a normal action potential (AP) with no EADs, (2) an AP with EADs, and (3) an AP with EADs that does not go back to the resting potential. We also study the dependence of EADs on the rate of at which we pace a cell, with the specific goal of elucidating EADs that are induced by slow or fast rate pacing. In our simulations in two-and three-dimensional domains, in the presence of EADs, we find the following wave types: (A) waves driven by the fast sodium current and the L-type calcium current (Na-Ca-mediated waves); (B) waves driven only by the L-type calcium current (Ca-mediated waves); (C) phase waves, which are pseudo-travelling waves. Furthermore, we compare the wave patterns of the various wave-types (Na-Ca-mediated, Ca-mediated, and phase waves) in both these models. We find that the two models produce qualitatively similar results in terms of exhibiting Na-Ca-mediated wave patterns that are more chaotic than those for the Ca-mediated and phase waves. However, there are quantitative differences in the wave patterns of each wave type. The Na-Ca-mediated waves in the ORd model show short-lived spirals but the TP06 model does not. The TP06 model supports more Ca-mediated spirals than those in the ORd model, and the TP06 model exhibits more phase-wave patterns than does the ORd model.

A Computational Study of the Factors Influencing the PVC-Triggering Ability of a Cluster of Early Afterdepolarization-Capable Myocytes

Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs), which are abnormal impulse propagations in cardiac tissue, can develop because of various reasons including early afterdepolarizations (EADs). We show how a cluster of EAD-generating cells (EAD clump) can lead to PVCs in a model of cardiac tissue, and also investigate the factors that assist such clumps in triggering PVCs. In particular, we study, through computer simulations, the effects of the following factors on the PVC-triggering ability of an EAD clump: (1) the repolarization reserve (RR) of the EAD cells; (2) the size of the EAD clump; (3) the coupling strength between the EAD cells in the clump; and (4) the presence of fibroblasts in the EAD clump. We find that, although a low value of RR is necessary to generate EADs and hence PVCs, a very low value of RR leads to low-amplitude EAD oscillations that decay with time and do not lead to PVCs. We demonstrate that a certain threshold size of the EAD clump, or a reduction in the coupling strength between the EAD cells, in the clump, is required to trigger PVCs. We illustrate how randomly distributed inexcitable obstacles, which we use to model collagen deposits, affect PVC-triggering by an EAD clump. We show that the gap-junctional coupling of fibroblasts with myocytes can either assist or impede the PVC-triggering ability of an EAD clump, depending on the resting membrane potential of the fibroblasts and the coupling strength between the myocyte and fibroblasts. We also find that the triggering of PVCs by an EAD clump depends sensitively on factors like the pacing cycle length and the distribution pattern of the fibroblasts.