Bayesian parameter identification in dynamic state space models using modified measurement equations

When Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are used in problems of system parameter identification, one would face computational difficulties in dealing with large amount of measurement data and (or) low levels of measurement noise. Such exigencies are likely to occur in problems of parameter identification in dynamical systems when amount of vibratory measurement data and number of parameters to be identified could be large. In such cases, the posterior probability density function of the system parameters tends to have regions of narrow supports and a finite length MCMC chain is unlikely to cover pertinent regions. The present study proposes strategies based on modification of measurement equations and subsequent corrections, to alleviate this difficulty. This involves artificial enhancement of measurement noise, assimilation of transformed packets of measurements, and a global iteration strategy to improve the choice of prior models. Illustrative examples cover laboratory studies on a time variant dynamical system and a bending-torsion coupled, geometrically non-linear building frame under earthquake support motions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Girsanov Transformation-Based Reliability Modeling and Testing of Actively Controlled Structures

The problem of estimation of the time-variant reliability of actively controlled structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitations is considered. Monte Carlo simulations, reinforced with Girsanov transformation-based sampling variance reduction, are used to tackle the problem. In this approach, the external excitations are biased by an additional artificial control force. The conflicting objectives of the two control forces-one designed to reduce structural responses and the other to promote limit-state violations (but to reduce sampling variance)-are noted. The control for variance reduction is fashioned after design-point oscillations based on a first-order reliability method. It is shown that for structures that are amenable to laboratory testing, the reliability can be estimated experimentally with reduced testing times by devising a procedure based on the ideas of the Girsanov transformation. Illustrative examples include studies on a building frame with a magnetorheologic damper-based isolation system subject to nonstationary random earthquake excitations. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Global Response Sensitivity Analysis of Randomly Excited Dynamic Structures

The response of structural dynamical systems excited by multiple random excitations is considered. Two new procedures for evaluating global response sensitivity measures with respect to the excitation components are proposed. The first procedure is valid for stationary response of linear systems under stationary random excitations and is based on the notion of Hellinger's metric of distance between two power spectral density functions. The second procedure is more generally valid and is based on the l2 norm based distance measure between two probability density functions. Specific cases which admit exact solutions are presented, and solution procedures based on Monte Carlo simulations for more general class of problems are outlined. Illustrations include studies on a parametrically excited linear system and a nonlinear random vibration problem involving moving oscillator-beam system that considers excitations attributable to random support motions and guide-way unevenness. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A global convergence criterion for discrete-time multivariable adaptive systems

The paper deals with the basic problem of adjusting a matrix gain in a discrete-time linear multivariable system. The object is to obtain a global convergence criterion, i.e. conditions under which a specified error signal asymptotically approaches zero and other signals in the system remain bounded for arbitrary initial conditions and for any bounded input to the system. It is shown that for a class of up-dating algorithms for the adjustable gain matrix, global convergence is crucially dependent on a transfer matrix G(z) which has a simple block diagram interpretation. When w(z)G(z) is strictly discrete positive real for a scalar w(z) such that w-1(z) is strictly proper with poles and zeros within the unit circle, an augmented error scheme is suggested and is proved to result in global convergence. The solution avoids feeding back a quadratic term as recommended in other schemes for single-input single-output systems.

L_{2}- stability of a class of nonstationary feedback systems with dynamical nonlinear subsystems

A class of feedback systems, consisting of dynamical non-linear subsystems which arise in many diverse control applications, is analyzed for L2-stability. It is shown that, although a transformation of these systems to the familiar Lur'e configuration does not seem to be possible, a one-to-one correspondence may be effected between the stability properties of these and the Lur'e systems. Interesting stability criteria are developed by exploiting this characteristic.

Nonlinear structural dynamical system identification using adaptive particle filters

The problem of identifying parameters of nonlinear vibrating systems using spatially incomplete, noisy, time-domain measurements is considered. The problem is formulated within the framework of dynamic state estimation formalisms that employ particle filters. The parameters of the system, which are to be identified, are treated as a set of random variables with finite number of discrete states. The study develops a procedure that combines a bank of self-learning particle filters with a global iteration strategy to estimate the probability distribution of the system parameters to be identified. Individual particle filters are based on the sequential importance sampling filter algorithm that is readily available in the existing literature. The paper develops the requisite recursive formulary for evaluating the evolution of weights associated with system parameter states. The correctness of the formulations developed is demonstrated first by applying the proposed procedure to a few linear vibrating systems for which an alternative solution using adaptive Kalman filter method is possible. Subsequently, illustrative examples on three nonlinear vibrating systems, using synthetic vibration data, are presented to reveal the correct functioning of the method. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamical cluster approximation: Nonlocal dynamics of correlated electron systems

We recently introduced the dynamical cluster approximation (DCA), a technique that includes short-ranged dynamical correlations in addition to the local dynamics of the dynamical mean-field approximation while preserving causality. The technique is based on an iterative self-consistency scheme on a finite-size periodic cluster. The dynamical mean-field approximation (exact result) is obtained by taking the cluster to a single site (the thermodynamic limit). Here, we provide details of our method, explicitly show that it is causal, systematic, Phi derivable, and that it becomes conserving as the cluster size increases. We demonstrate the DCA by applying it to a quantum Monte Carlo and exact enumeration study of the two-dimensional Falicov-Kimball model. The resulting spectral functions preserve causality, and the spectra and the charge-density-wave transition temperature converge quickly and systematically to the thermodynamic limit as the cluster size increases.

Class of linear time-varying discrete systems

A class of linear time-varying discrete systems is considered, and closed-form solutions are obtained in different cases. Some comments on stability are also included.

New Insights into Optimal Discrete Rate Adaptation for Average Power Constrained Single and Multi-Node Systems

The throughput-optimal discrete-rate adaptation policy, when nodes are subject to constraints on the average power and bit error rate, is governed by a power control parameter, for which a closed-form characterization has remained an open problem. The parameter is essential in determining the rate adaptation thresholds and the transmit rate and power at any time, and ensuring adherence to the power constraint. We derive novel insightful bounds and approximations that characterize the power control parameter and the throughput in closed-form. The results are comprehensive as they apply to the general class of Nakagami-m (m >= 1) fading channels, which includes Rayleigh fading, uncoded and coded modulation, and single and multi-node systems with selection. The results are appealing as they are provably tight in the asymptotic large average power regime, and are designed and verified to be accurate even for smaller average powers.

Interplay Between Optimal Selection Scheme, Selection Criterion, and Discrete Rate Adaptation in Opportunistic Wireless Systems

An opportunistic, rate-adaptive system exploits multi-user diversity by selecting the best node, which has the highest channel power gain, and adapting the data rate to selected node's channel gain. Since channel knowledge is local to a node, we propose using a distributed, low-feedback timer backoff scheme to select the best node. It uses a mapping that maps the channel gain, or, in general, a real-valued metric, to a timer value. The mapping is such that timers of nodes with higher metrics expire earlier. Our goal is to maximize the system throughput when rate adaptation is discrete, as is the case in practice. To improve throughput, we use a pragmatic selection policy, in which even a node other than the best node can be selected. We derive several novel, insightful results about the optimal mapping and develop an algorithm to compute it. These results bring out the inter-relationship between the discrete rate adaptation rule, optimal mapping, and selection policy. We also extensively benchmark the performance of the optimal mapping with several timer and opportunistic multiple access schemes considered in the literature, and demonstrate that the developed scheme is effective in many regimes of interest.

Discrete-Rate Adaptation and Selection in Energy Harvesting Wireless Systems

In a system with energy harvesting (EH) nodes, the design focus shifts from minimizing energy consumption by infrequently transmitting less information to making the best use of available energy to efficiently deliver data while adhering to the fundamental energy neutrality constraint. We address the problem of maximizing the throughput of a system consisting of rate-adaptive EH nodes that transmit to a destination. Unlike related literature, we focus on the practically important discrete-rate adaptation model. First, for a single EH node, we propose a discrete-rate adaptation rule and prove its optimality for a general class of stationary and ergodic EH and fading processes. We then study a general system with multiple EH nodes in which one is opportunistically selected to transmit. We first derive a novel and throughput-optimal joint selection and rate adaptation rule (TOJSRA) when the nodes are subject to a weaker average power constraint. We then propose a novel rule for a multi-EH node system that is based on TOJSRA, and we prove its optimality for stationary and ergodic EH and fading processes. We also model the various energy overheads of the EH nodes and characterize their effect on the adaptation policy and the system throughput.

Identification of dominant modes in random dynamical and aeroelastic systems

Identification of dominant modes is an important step in studying linearly vibrating systems, including flow-induced vibrations. In the presence of uncertainty, when some of the system parameters and the external excitation are modeled as random quantities, this step becomes more difficult. This work is aimed at giving a systematic treatment to this end. The ability to capture the time averaged kinetic energy is chosen as the primary criterion for selection of modes. Accordingly, a methodology is proposed based on the overlap of probability density functions (pdf) of the natural and excitation frequencies, proximity of the natural frequencies of the mean or baseline system, modal participation factor, and stochastic variation of mode shapes in terms of the modes of the baseline system - termed here as statistical modal overlapping. The probabilistic descriptors of the natural frequencies and mode shapes are found by solving a random eigenvalue problem. Three distinct vibration scenarios are considered: (i) undamped arid damped free vibrations of a bladed disk assembly, (ii) forced vibration of a building, and (iii) flutter of a bridge model. Through numerical studies, it is observed that the proposed methodology gives an accurate selection of modes. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Periodic oscillations in feedback systems with combined pulse modulation

This paper presents a systematic method of investigating the existence of limit cycle oscillations in feedback systems with combined integral pulse frequency-pulse width (IPF-P/V) modulation. The method is based on the non-linear discrete equivalence of the continuous feedback system containing the IPF-PW modulator.