High Temperatures Result in Smaller Nurseries which Lower Reproduction of Pollinators and Parasites in a Brood Site Pollination Mutualism

In a nursery pollination mutualism, we asked whether environmental factors affected reproduction of mutualistic pollinators, non-mutualistic parasites and seed production via seasonal changes in plant traits such as inflorescence size and within-tree reproductive phenology. We examined seasonal variation in reproduction in Ficus racemosa community members that utilise enclosed inflorescences called syconia as nurseries. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall defined four seasons: winter; hot days, cold nights; summer and wet seasons. Syconium volumes were highest in winter and lowest in summer, and affected syconium contents positively across all seasons. Greater transpiration from the nurseries was possibly responsible for smaller syconia in summer. The 3-5 degrees C increase in mean temperatures between the cooler seasons and summer reduced fig wasp reproduction and increased seed production nearly two-fold. Yet, seed and pollinator progeny production were never negatively related in any season confirming the mutualistic fig-pollinator association across seasons. Non-pollinator parasites affected seed production negatively in some seasons, but had a surprisingly positive relationship with pollinators in most seasons. While within-tree reproductive phenology did not vary across seasons, its effect on syconium inhabitants varied with season. In all seasons, within-tree reproductive asynchrony affected parasite reproduction negatively, whereas it had a positive effect on pollinator reproduction in winter and a negative effect in summer. Seasonally variable syconium volumes probably caused the differential effect of within-tree reproductive phenology on pollinator reproduction. Within-tree reproductive asynchrony itself was positively affected by intra-tree variation in syconium contents and volume, creating a unique feedback loop which varied across seasons. Therefore, nursery size affected fig wasp reproduction, seed production and within-tree reproductive phenology via the feedback cycle in this system. Climatic factors affecting plant reproductive traits cause biotic relationships between plants, mutualists and parasites to vary seasonally and must be accorded greater attention, especially in the context of climate change.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols

The climatic effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) geoengineering have been often modeled by simply reducing the solar constant. This is most likely valid only for space sunshades and not for atmosphere and surface based SRM methods. In this study, a global climate model is used to evaluate the differences in the climate response to SRM by uniform solar constant reduction and stratospheric aerosols. Our analysis shows that when global mean warming from a doubling of CO2 is nearly cancelled by both these methods, they are similar when important surface and tropospheric climate variables are considered. However, a difference of 1 K in the global mean stratospheric (61-9.8 hPa) temperature is simulated between the two SRM methods. Further, while the global mean surface diffuse radiation increases by similar to 23 % and direct radiation decreases by about 9 % in the case of sulphate aerosol SRM method, both direct and diffuse radiation decrease by similar fractional amounts (similar to 1.0 %) when solar constant is reduced. When CO2 fertilization effects from elevated CO2 concentration levels are removed, the contribution from shaded leaves to gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 1.8 % in aerosol SRM because of increased diffuse light. However, this increase is almost offset by a 15.2 % decline in sunlit contribution due to reduced direct light. Overall both the SRM simulations show similar decrease in GPP (similar to 8 %) and net primary productivity (similar to 3 %). Based on our results we conclude that the climate states produced by a reduction in solar constant and addition of aerosols into the stratosphere can be considered almost similar except for two important aspects: stratospheric temperature change and the consequent implications for the dynamics and the chemistry of the stratosphere and the partitioning of direct versus diffuse radiation reaching the surface. Further, the likely dependence of global hydrological cycle response on aerosol particle size and the latitudinal and height distribution of aerosols is discussed.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Isotopic and geochemical characterization of invader tilapia fishes from water bodies of West Bengal and Karnataka, India

The otoliths (N = 12) of freshwater invasive species tilapia (Tilapia mossambicus) collected from two water bodies located at Kolkata and Bangalore, India, were analyzed for stable isotopes (delta 18O, delta 14C) and major and trace elements in order to assess the suitability of using otoliths as a tracer of aquatic environmental changes. The stable isotope analysis was done using the dual inlet system of a Finnigan-MAT 253 isotope ratio mass spectrometer (Thermo-Fisher, Bremen, Germany). Concentrations of major and trace elements were determined using a Thermo X-Series II quadrupole mass spectrometer. The stable isotope composition in tilapia otolith samples from Bangalore and Kolkata water bodies are quite good agreeing with that of the respective lake/pond and rain water. Elemental composition revealed in a pattern of Ca > Fe > Na > Sr > K > Ba > Cr > Mg > As > Mn > Zn > Co > Cu > Cd > Pb. The otoliths from Kolkata pond water are more enriched in Ba, Zn, Pb, Mn, Se, Cu, Zn, Cd, and Ni whereas Cr and As were found to be higher in otolith samples from Bangalore lake. The enrichment factor (EF) values of Cr were higher for both the sampling location in comparison with other metals, although all the studied metals exhibited EF values >1. The PCA shows clustering of metals in the otolith which are related either with the metabolic and physiological attributes or waterborne source. The study demonstrated the potential of stable isotope techniques to distinguish otolith specimens from varied climatic zone, while elemental composition recorded the quality of water at both the locations. The role of climate driving the quality of water can be understood by detailed and continuous monitoring of otolith specimens in the future. Future method allows reconstruction of climate and water quality from old specimens from field exposures or museum collection.

Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Embodied and operational energy of urban residential buildings in India

Globally, buildings consume nearly half of the total energy produced, and consequently responsible for a large share of CO2 emissions. A building's life cycle energy (LCE) comprises its embodied energy (EE) and operational energy (OE). The building design, prevalent climatic conditions and occupant behaviour primarily determines its LCE. Thus, for the identification of appropriate emission-reduction strategies, studies into building LCE are crucial. While OE reflects the energy utilized in operating a, EE comprises the initial capital energy involved in its construction (material and burden associated with material consumption in buildings. Assessment of EE and OE in buildings is crucial towards identifying appropriate design and operational strategies for reduction of the building's life cycle energy. This paper discusses EE and OE assessment of a few residential buildings in different climatic locations in India. The study shows that share of OE and EE in LCE greatly depends upon the types of materials used in construction and extent of space conditioning adopted. In some cases EE can exceed life cycle OE. Buildings with reinforced concrete frame and monolithic reinforced concrete walls have very high EE. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Of plants and pikas: evidence for a climate-mediated decline in forage and cache quality

Background: Animals that hoard food to mediate seasonal deficits in resource availability might be particularly vulnerable to climate-mediated reductions in the quality and accessibility of food during the caching season. Central-place foragers might be additionally impacted by climatic constraints on their already restricted foraging range. Aims: We sought evidence for these patterns in a study of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a territorial, central-place forager sensitive to climate. Methods: Pika food caches and available forage were re-sampled using historical methods at two long-term study sites, to quantify changes over two decades. Taxa that changed in availability or use were analysed for primary and secondary metabolites. Results: Both sites trended towards warmer summers, and snowmelt trended earlier at the lower latitude site. Graminoid cover increased at each site, and caching trends appeared to reflect available forage rather than primary metabolites. Pikas at the lower latitude site preferred species higher in secondary metabolites, known to provide higher-nutrient winter forage. However, caching of lower-nutrient graminoids increased in proportion with graminoid availability at that site. Conclusions: If our results represent trends in climate, cache quality and available forage, we predict that pikas at the lower latitude site will soon face nutritional deficiencies.

Disaggregation of LST over India: comparative analysis of different vegetation indices

The non-availability of high-spatial-resolution thermal data from satellites on a consistent basis led to the development of different models for sharpening coarse-spatial-resolution thermal data. Thermal sharpening models that are based on the relationship between land-surface temperature (LST) and a vegetation index (VI) such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) or fraction vegetation cover (FVC) have gained much attention due to their simplicity, physical basis, and operational capability. However, there are hardly any studies in the literature examining comprehensively various VIs apart from NDVI and FVC, which may be better suited for thermal sharpening over agricultural and natural landscapes. The aim of this study is to compare the relative performance of five different VIs, namely NDVI, FVC, the normalized difference water index (NDWI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and modified soil adjusted vegetation index (MSAVI), for thermal sharpening using the DisTrad thermal sharpening model over agricultural and natural landscapes in India. Multi-temporal LST data from Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors obtained over two different agro-climatic grids in India were disaggregated from 960 m to 120 m spatial resolution. The sharpened LST was compared with the reference LST estimated from the Landsat data at 120 m spatial resolution. In addition to this, MODIS LST was disaggregated from 960 m to 480 m and compared with ground measurements at five sites in India. It was found that NDVI and FVC performed better only under wet conditions, whereas under drier conditions, the performance of NDWI was superior to other indices and produced accurate results. SAVI and MSAVI always produced poorer results compared with NDVI/FVC and NDWI for wet and dry cases, respectively.