133 resultados para range uncertainty


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We have compared the spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol fine mode fraction (AFMF) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with those of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) at Kanpur (26.45N, 80.35E), northern India for the pre-monsoon season (March to June, 2001-2005). We found that MODIS systematically overestimates AOD during pre-monsoon season (known to be influenced by dust transport from north-west of India). The errors in AOD were correlated with the MODIS top-of-atmosphere apparent surface reflectance in 2.1 mu m channel (rho*(2.1)). MODIS aerosol algorithm uses p*(2.1) to derive the surface reflectance in visible channels (rho(0.47), rho(0.66)) using an empirical mid IR-visible correlation (rho(0.47) = rho(2.1)/4, rho(0.66) = rho(2.1)/2). The large uncertainty in estimating surface reflectance in visible channels (Delta rho(0.66)+/- 0.04, Delta rho(0.47)+/- 0.02) at higher values of p*(2.1) (p*(2.1) > 0.18) leads to higher aerosol contribution in the total reflected radiance at top-of atmosphere to compensate for the reduced surface reflectance in visible channels and thus leads to overestimation of AOD. This was also reflected in the very low values of AFMF during pre-monsoon whose accuracy depends on the aerosol path radiance in 0.47 and 0.66 mu m channels and aerosol models. The errors in AOD were also high in the scattering angle range 110 degrees-140 degrees, where the effect of dust non-spherity on its optical properties is significant. The direct measurements of spectral surface reflectance are required over the Indo-Gangetic basin in order to validate the mid IR-visible relationship. MODIS aerosol models should also be modified to incorporate the effect of non-spherity of dust aerosols.

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The electrical capacitance and resistance of the binary liquid mixture cyclohexane + acetonitrile are measured in the one phase and two phase regions at spot frequencies between 5 kHz and 100 kHz. This sample has a very low gravity affected (∼0.6 mK) region. In one phase region the capacitance data show a sharp, ∼0.7% increase above background within 0.5 degrees of Tc whereas the resistance has a smooth increase of ∼1.5% above background in a (T−Tc) range of 4 degrees. Two phase values of capacitance and resistance from the coexisting phases are used to determine the critical parameters Tc (critical temperature), Rc (resistance at Tc) and Cc (capacitance at Tc). A precise knowledge of these parameters reduces the uncertainty on the critical exponent 0 for C and R. The one phase capacitance data fit to an (1 - α) exponent in a limited temperature range of 0.2 degrees. Resistance data strongly support an (1 - α) exponent over the entire 5 degree range.

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Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

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A simple apparatus to measure the absolute thermoelectric power of solids in the temperature range 4·2–300K is described. The cryostat and the associated instrumentation is simple to operate. Representative data of measurements on metallic wire and pressed pellets are given. An accuracy of better than 10% in absolute thermopower can be obtained in this apparatus.

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The authors have developed a simple continuous-cooling method to determine specific heat of liquids and solids in the temperature range 100-300 K. The technique employs very simple instrumentation and continuously records the sample temperature as it cools to the bath temperature through a calibrated heat link. They have obtained specific heat values which agree with the reported data to within 3% for the samples investigated. This method also facilitates easy detection of abrupt changes in specific heat, as demonstrated in the observation of glass transition in some organic glass-forming systems. The method is sensitive to the study of relaxing heat capacity in supercooled liquids.

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A two dimensional correlation experiment for the measurement of short and long range homo- and hetero- nuclear residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) from the broad and featureless proton NMR spectra including C-13 satellites is proposed. The method employs a single natural abundant C-13 spin as a spy nucleus to probe all the coupled protons and permits the determination of RDCs of negligible strengths. The technique has been demonstrated for the study of organic chiral molecules aligned in chiral liquid crystal, where additional challenge is to unravel the overlapped spectrum of enantiomers. The significant advantage of the method is demonstrated in better chiral discrimination using homonuclear RDCs as additional parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Some of the Bi-Ca-Sr-Cu-O compositions show indications of onset of superconductivity in the 200–300 K region, possibly due to the intergrowth of different layered sequences.

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When the size (L) of a one-dimensional metallic conductor is less than the correlation length λ-1 of the Gaussian random potential, one expects transport properties to show ballistic behaviour. Using an invariant imbedding method, we study the exact distribution of the resistance, of the phase θ of the reflection amplitude of an incident electron of wave number k0, and of dθ/dk0, for λL ll 1. The resistance is non-self-averaging and the n-th resistance moment varies periodically as (1 - cos 2k0L)n. The charge fluctuation noise, determined by the distribution of dθ/dk0, is constant at low frequencies.

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Life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to estimate a product's environmental impact. Using LCA during the earlier stages of design may produce erroneous results since information available on the product's lifecycle is typically incomplete at these stages. The resulting uncertainty must be accounted for in the decision-making process. This paper proposes a method for estimating the environmental impact of a product's life cycle and the associated degree of uncertainty of that impact using information generated during the design process. Total impact is estimated based on aggregation of individual product life cycle processes impacts. Uncertainty estimation is based on assessing the mismatch between the information required and the information available about the product life cycle in each uncertainty category, as well as their integration. The method is evaluated using pre-defined scenarios with varying uncertainty. DOI: 10.1115/1.4002163]

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This paper aims at describing a low‐temperature thermal sensor based on superconductor films which can be designed to have required variation of resistance with temperature through an appropriate geometry. Further, it has been shown that the temperature range can be varied to some extent by controlling the bias current.

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This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

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The long-range deuterium isotope effects on13C nuclear shielding are physically not yet completely understood. Two existing models for explaining these effects, vibrational and substituent, are compared here. The vibrational model is based on the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, but it can explain only one-bond deuterium effects. To the contrary, the substituent model may explain many long-range isotope effects, but it is controversial due to the assumption of some distinct electronic properties of isotopes. We explain how long-range deuterium isotope effects may be rationalized by the subtle electronic changes induced by isotope substitution, which does not violate the Born-Oppenheimer approximation.

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The short range interactions in He2, Ne2 and Ar2 have been studied in terms of the electronic forces as functions of their internuclear separations employing their single configuration SCF wave functions. The results show that the constituent molecular orbitals behave differently in terms of the forces they exert on the nuclei during the interaction process. The different behaviour of the orbitals is also reflected in the redistribution of charges.

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A procedure is offered for evaluating the forces between classical, charged solitons at large distances. This is employed for the solitons of a complex, scalar two-dimensional field theory with a U(1) symmetry, that leads to a conserved chargeQ. These forces are the analogues of the strong interaction forces. The potential,U(Q, R), is found to be attractive, of long range, and strong when the coupling constants in the theory are small. The dependence ofU(Q, R) onQ, the sum of the charges of the two interacting solitons (Q will refer to isospin in the SU(2) generalisation of the U(1) symmetric theory) is of importance in the theory of strong interactions; group theoretical considerations do not give such information. The interaction obtained here will be the leading term in the corresponding quantum field theory when the coupling-constants are small.