Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal threshold policies for admission control in communication networks via discrete parameter stochastic approximation

The problem of admission control of packets in communication networks is studied in the continuous time queueing framework under different classes of service and delayed information feedback. We develop and use a variant of a simulation based two timescale simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm for finding an optimal feedback policy within the class of threshold type policies. Even though SPSA has originally been designed for continuous parameter optimization, its variant for the discrete parameter case is seen to work well. We give a proof of the hypothesis needed to show convergence of the algorithm on our setting along with a sketch of the convergence analysis. Extensive numerical experiments with the algorithm are illustrated for different parameter specifications. In particular, we study the effect of feedback delays on the system performance.

Application of D transforms in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

The scope of application of Laplace transforms presently limited to the study of linear partial differential equations, is extended to the nonlinear domain by this study. This has been achieved by modifying the definition of D transforms, put forth recently for the study of classes of nonlinear lumped parameter systems. The appropriate properties of the new D transforms are presented to bring out their applicability in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

Equivalence conditions for classes of linear and non-linear distributed parameter systems

Equivalence of certain classes of second-order non-linear distributed parameter systems and corresponding linear third-order systems is established through a differential transformation technique. As linear systems are amenable to analysis through existing techniques, this study is expected to offer a method of tackling certain classes of non-linear problems which may otherwise prove to be formidable in nature.

Coherent rainfall zones: Case study for Karnataka

Generally average rainfall over meteorological subdivisions is used for assessment of the variability of monsoon rainfall. It is shown here that variations of seasonal rainfall over the meteorological subdivisions of interior Karnataka are not coherent. A methodology for delineating coherent rainfall zones is developed in this paper and applied to derive such zones for the State of Karnataka.

Thermodynamic consistency of the interaction parameter formalism

The apparent contradiction between the exact nature of the interaction parameter formalism as presented by Lupis and Elliott and the inconsistencies discussed recently by Pelton and Bale arise from the truncation of the Maclaurin series in the latter treatment. The truncation removes the exactness of the expression for the logarithm of the activity coefficient of a solute in a multi-component system. The integrals are therefore path dependent. Formulae for integration along paths of constant Xi,or X i/Xj are presented. The expression for In γsolvent given by Pelton and Bale is valid only in the limit that the mole fraction of solvent tends to one. The truncation also destroys the general relations between interaction parameters derived by Lupis and Elliott. For each specific choice of parameters special relationships are obtained between interaction parameters.

Sign Of The Order Parameter In Oriented Systems And Its Utility In The Study Of The Dynamic Properties Of Molecules

Novel one and two dimensional NMR techniques are proposed and utilized for the determination of the signs of the order parameters used for the study of the mobility of the fatty acid chains. The experiments designed to extract this information involve the use of the intensities of the side bands in the spectra of oriented systems spinning at the magic angle. Advantages of the two dimensional technique over the one dimensional method are discussed. The utility of the method in the study of the dynamic properties of membranes and model systems is pointed out.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Determination of the sign of the order parameter from MAS spectra of oriented molecules

The use of the intensities of the spinning sidebands in the magic-angle spinning spectra of oriented molecules is proposed for the determination of the signs of the order parameters. The method is demonstrated for benzene and chloroform oriented in nematic phases of liquid crystals. On the basis of the theoretical expressions derived for the various order sidebands, the applicability of the method for different experimental conditions is discussed.

Coherent rainfall zones of the Indian region

We have delineated rainfall zones for the Indian region that are coherent with respect to the variations of the summer monsoon rainfall. Within each zone, the time series of the summer monsoon rainfall at every pair of stations are significantly positively correlated, and the mean interseries correlation for each zone is high. The interseries correlation data set is analysed in order to delineate the rainfall zones, using an objective method specifically developed for the purpose. Each of the zonal averages are shown to be representative of the zone as a whole. We suggest that this regionalization is appropriate for study of the variation of the summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region on interannual and larger scales.

Kaon B parameter with Wilson fermions

We calculate the kaon B parameter in quenched lattice QCD at beta=6.0 using Wilson fermions at kappa=0.154 and 0.155. We use two kinds of nonlocal (''smeared'') sources for quark propagators to calculate the matrix elements between states of definite momentum. The use of smeared sources yields results with much smaller errors than obtained in previous calculations with Wilson fermions. By combining results for p=(0,0,0) and p=(0,0,1), we show that one can carry out the noperturbative subtraction necessary to remove the dominant lattice artifacts induced by the chiral-symmetry-breaking term in the Wilson action. Our final results are in good agreement with those obtained using staggered fermions. We also present results for B parameters of the DELTAI = 3/2 part of the electromagnetic penguin operators, and preliminary results for B(K) in the presence of two flavors of dynamical quarks.

Thermodynamics and phase equilibria in the system Ga---In using multi-parameter functions

A four and a five-parameter functions are used to analyse and interpret the high and low temperature thermodynamic data and phase equilibria in the Ga-In system.

Strong nonlocalization induced by small scale parameter on terahertz flexural wave dispersion characteristics of a monolayer graphene

This paper presents the strong nonlocal scale effect on the flexural wave propagation in a monolayer graphene sheet. The graphene is modeled as an isotropic plate of one atom thick. Nonlocal governing equation of motion is derived and wave propagation analysis is performed using spectral analysis. The present analysis shows that the flexural wave dispersion in graphene obtained by local and nonlocal elasticity theories is quite different. The nonlocal elasticity calculation shows that the wavenumber escapes to infinite at certain frequency and the corresponding wave velocity tends to zero at that frequency indicating localization and stationary behavior. This behavior is captured in the spectrum and dispersion curves. The cut-off frequency of flexural wave not only depend on the axial wavenumber but also on the nonlocal scaling parameter. The effect of axial wavenumber on the wave behavior in graphene is also discussed in the present manuscript. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.