Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of fuel hydrogen fraction on syngas fueled SI engine: Fuel thermo-physical property analysis and in-cylinder experimental investigations

Hydrogen, either in pure form or as a gaseous fuel mixture specie enhances the fuel conversion efficiency and reduce emissions in an internal combustion engine. This is due to the reduction in combustion duration attributed to higher laminar flame speeds. Hydrogen is also expected to increase the engine convective heat flux, attributed (directly or indirectly) to parameters like higher adiabatic flame temperature, laminar flame speed, thermal conductivity and diffusivity and lower flame quenching distance. These factors (adversely) affect the thermo-kinematic response and offset some of the benefits. The current work addresses the influence of mixture hydrogen fraction in syngas on the engine energy balance and the thermo-kinematic response for close to stoichiometric operating conditions. Four different bio-derived syngas compositions with fuel calorific value varying from 3.14 MJ/kg to 7.55 MJ/kg and air fuel mixture hydrogen fraction varying from 7.1% to 14.2% by volume are used. The analysis comprises of (a) use of chemical kinetics simulation package CHEMKIN for quantifying the thermo-physical properties (b) 0-D model for engine in-cylinder analysis and (c) in-cylinder investigations on a two-cylinder engine in open loop cooling mode for quantifying the thermo-kinematic response and engine energy balance. With lower adiabatic flame temperature for Syngas, the in-cylinder heat transfer analysis suggests that temperature has little effect in terms of increasing the heat flux. For typical engine like conditions (700 K and 25 bar at CR of 10), the laminar flame speed for syngas exceeds that of methane (55.5 cm/s) beyond mixture hydrogen fraction of 11% and is attributed to the increase in H based radicals. This leads to a reduction in the effective Lewis number and laminar flame thickness, potentially inducing flame instability and cellularity. Use of a thermodynamic model to assess the isolated influence of thermal conductivity and diffusivity on heat flux suggests an increase in the peak heat flux between 2% and 15% for the lowest (0.420 MW/m(2)) and highest (0.480 MW/m(2)) hydrogen containing syngas over methane (0.415 MW/m(2)) fueled operation. Experimental investigations indicate the engine cooling load for syngas fueled engine is higher by about 7% and 12% as compared to methane fueled operation; the losses are seen to increase with increasing mixture hydrogen fraction. Increase in the gas to electricity efficiency is observed from 18% to 24% as the mixture hydrogen fraction increases from 7.1% to 9.5%. Further increase in mixture hydrogen fraction to 14.2% results in the reduction of efficiency to 23%; argued due to the changes in the initial and terminal stages of combustion. On doubling of mixture hydrogen fraction, the flame kernel development and fast burn phase duration decrease by about 7% and 10% respectively and the terminal combustion duration, corresponding to 90%-98% mass burn, increases by about 23%. This increase in combustion duration arises from the cooling of the near wall mixture in the boundary layer attributed to the presence of hydrogen. The enhancement in engine cooling load and subsequent reduction in the brake thermal efficiency with increasing hydrogen fraction is evident from the engine energy balance along with the cumulative heat release profiles. Copyright (C) 2015, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.