Some Methods for Summarizing Survivorship Data in Nonstandard Situations

One difficulty in summarising biological survivorship data is that the hazard rates are often neither constant nor increasing with time or decreasing with time in the entire life span. The promising Weibull model does not work here. The paper demonstrates how bath tub shaped quadratic models may be used in such a case. Further, sometimes due to a paucity of data actual lifetimes are not as certainable. It is shown how a concept from queuing theory namely first in first out (FIFO) can be profitably used here. Another nonstandard situation considered is one in which lifespan of the individual entity is too long compared to duration of the experiment. This situation is dealt with, by using ancilliary information. In each case the methodology is illustrated with numerical examples.

Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach

In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0 degrees N-20 degrees N; 72 degrees E-88 degrees E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing theseismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x0.1 degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.

Clinical and immunological studies on persons exposed toParthenium hysterophorus L

Studies on 300 persons subjected by occupational hazard to the allergenic weed, Parthenium hysterophorus L. for periods ranging from 3 to 12 months revealed that 4% of them developed contact dermatitis of the exposed parts of the body, while 56% of them got sensitized to the weed without apparently exhibiting any dermatitis. None of them suffered from allergic manifestations like rhinitis or bronchial asthma during the period of study which extended for 2 years.

Seismic Microzonation: A Tool for Disaster Mitigation Planning

Seismic microzonation has generally been recognized as the most accepted tool in seismic hazard assessment and risk evaluation. In general, risk reduction can be done by reducing the hazard, the vulnerability or the value at risk. Since the earthquake hazard can not be reduced, one has to concentrate on vulnerability and value at risk. The vulnerability of an urban area / municipalities depends on the vulnerability of infrastructure and redundancies within the infrastructure. The earthquake risk is the damage to buildings along with number of people that are killed / hurt and the economic losses during the event due to an earthquake with a return period corresponding to this time period. The principal approaches one can follow to reduce these losses are to avoid, if possible, high hazard areas for the siting of buildings and infrastructure, and further ensure that the buildings and infrastructure are designed and constructed to resist expected earthquake loads. This can be done if one can assess the hazard at local scales. Seismic microzonation maps provide the basis for scientifically based decision-making to reduce earthquake risk for Govt./public agencies, private owners and the general public. Further, seismic microzonation carried out on an appropriate scale provides a valuable tool for disaster mitigation planning and emergency response planning for urban centers / municipalities. It provides the basis for the identification of the areas of the city / municipality which are most likely to experience serious damage in the event of an earthquake.

Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study

Mapping the shear wave velocity profile is an important part in seismic hazard and microzonation studies. The shear wave velocity of soil in the city of Bangalore was mapped using the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) technique. An empirical relationship was found between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) corrected N value ((N1)60cs) and measured shear wave velocity (Vs). The survey points were selected in such a way that the results represent the entire Bangalore region, covering an area of 220 km2. Fifty-eight 1-D and 20 2-D MASW surveys were performed and their velocity profiles determined. The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils was evaluated for depths of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m, 25 m and 30 m. The sub-soil classification was made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30-m depth (Vs30) of sites using the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW closely matches with the soil layers identified in SPT bore holes. Estimation of local site effects for an earthquake requires knowledge of the dynamic properties of soil, which is usually expressed in terms of shear wave velocity. Hence, to make use of abundant SPT data available on many geotechnical projects in Bangalore, an attempt was made to develop a relationship between Vs (m/s) and (N1)60cs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes was used to generate the correlation between the corrected N values and shear wave velocity. A power fit model correlation was developed with a regression coefficient (R2) of 0.84. This relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected SPT N values correlates well with the Japan Road Association equations.

Probabilistic evaluation of seismic soil liquefaction potential based on SPT data

The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach.

Total risk rating and stability analysis of embankment dams in the Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India

A method for total risk analysis of embankment dams under earthquake conditions is discussed and applied to the selected embankment dams, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati located in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India, to obtain the seismic hazard rating of the dam site and the risk rating of the structures. Based on the results of the total risk analysis of the dams, coupled non-linear dynamic numerical analyses of the dam sections are performed using acceleration time history record of the Bhuj (India) earthquake as well as five other major earthquakes recorded worldwide. The objective of doing so is to perform the numerical analysis of the dams for the range of amplitude, frequency content and time duration of input motions. The deformations calculated from the numerical analyses are also compared with other approaches available in literature, viz, Makdisi and Seed (1978) approach, Jansen's approach (1990), Swaisgood's method (1995), Bureau's method (1997). Singh et al. approach (2007), and Saygili and Rathje approach (2008) and the results are utilized to foresee the stability of dams in future earthquake scenario. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAN) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Ten-microRNA Expression Signature Predicts Survival in Glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive primary brain tumor with very poor patient median survival. To identify a microRNA (miRNA) expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival, we analyzed the miRNA expression data of GBM patients (n = 222) derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. We divided the patients randomly into training and testing sets with equal number in each group. We identified 10 significant miRNAs using Cox regression analysis on the training set and formulated a risk score based on the expression signature of these miRNAs that segregated the patients into high and low risk groups with significantly different survival times (hazard ratio HR] = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-3.8; p < 0.0001). Of these 10 miRNAs, 7 were found to be risky miRNAs and 3 were found to be protective. This signature was independently validated in the testing set (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.8; p = 0.002). GBM patients with high risk scores had overall poor survival compared to the patients with low risk scores. Overall survival among the entire patient set was 35.0% at 2 years, 21.5% at 3 years, 18.5% at 4 years and 11.8% at 5 years in the low risk group, versus 11.0%, 5.5%, 0.0 and 0.0% respectively in the high risk group (HR = 2.0; 95% CI = 1.4-2.8; p < 0.0001). Cox multivariate analysis with patient age as a covariate on the entire patient set identified risk score based on the 10 miRNA expression signature to be an independent predictor of patient survival (HR = 1.120; 95% CI = 1.04-1.20; p = 0.003). Thus we have identified a miRNA expression signature that can predict GBM patient survival. These findings may have implications in the understanding of gliomagenesis, development of targeted therapy and selection of high risk cancer patients for adjuvant therapy.

Seismic Microzonation: Principles,Practices and Experiments

This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.

Seismic Microzonation of Bangalore - Preliminary Maps

This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.

Evaluation of spatial variation of peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration for south India: a probabilistic approach

In this work, an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial variation of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at rock level for south India based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). These values were estimated by considering the uncertainties involved in magnitude, hypocentral distance and attenuation of seismic waves. Different models were used for the hazard evaluation, and they were combined together using a logic tree approach. For evaluating the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1A degrees A xA 0.1A degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 km. Rock level PHA values and SA at 1 s corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were evaluated for all the grid points. Maps showing the spatial variation of rock level PHA values and SA at 1 s for the entire south India are presented in this paper. To compare the seismic hazard for some of the important cities, the seismic hazard curves and the uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are also presented in this work.

A Model for the Temperature Distribution in Resin Impregnated Paper Bushings

Resin impregnated paper (RIP) is a relatively new insulation system recommended for the use in transformer bushings. In the recent past, RIP has acquired prominence as insulation in bushings, over conventional oil impregnated paper (OIP), in view of its overwhelming advantages the more important among them being low dielectric loss and possibility for positioning the bushing at any desired angle over the transformer. In addition, the fact that such systems do not pose problems of fire hazard is counted as a very important consideration. The disadvantage of RIP compared to OIP, however, is its much higher cost and involved manufacturing process. The temperature rise in RIP bushings under normal operating conditions is seen to be a difficult parameter to control in view of the limited options for effective cooling. It is therefore essential to take serious note of this aspect, to arrest rapid deterioration of bushing. The degradation of dry-type insulation such as RIP is often due to thermal stress. The long time performance thereof, depends strongly, on the maximum operating temperature. With this in view, the Authors have developed a theoretical model and computational method to study the temperature distribution in the body of insulation. The Authors consider that the basis for the model as being the temperature and electric stress aided AC conductivity. The ensuing heat balance (continuity) equations in 2-D cylindrical geometry are treated as a Dirichelet-Neumann boundary value problem.

Review of Geohazard Warning Systems toward Development of a Popular Usage Geohazard Warning Communication System

The advent and evolution of geohazard warning systems is a very interesting study. The two broad fields that are immediately visible are that of geohazard evaluation and subsequent warning dissemination. Evidently, the latter field lacks any systematic study or standards. Arbitrarily organized and vague data and information on warning techniques create confusion and indecision. The purpose of this review is to try and systematize the available bulk of information on warning systems so that meaningful insights can be derived through decidable flowcharts, and a developmental process can be undertaken. Hence, the methods and technologies for numerous geohazard warning systems have been assessed by putting them into suitable categories for better understanding of possible ways to analyze their efficacy as well as shortcomings. By establishing a classification scheme based on extent, control, time period, and advancements in technology, the geohazard warning systems available in any literature could be comprehensively analyzed and evaluated. Although major advancements have taken place in geohazard warning systems in recent times, they have been lacking a complete purpose. Some systems just assess the hazard and wait for other means to communicate, and some are designed only for communication and wait for the hazard information to be provided, which usually is after the mishap. Primarily, systems are left at the mercy of administrators and service providers and are not in real time. An integrated hazard evaluation and warning dissemination system could solve this problem. Warning systems have also suffered from complexity of nature, requirement of expert-level monitoring, extensive and dedicated infrastructural setups, and so on. The user community, which would greatly appreciate having a convenient, fast, and generalized warning methodology, is surveyed in this review. The review concludes with the future scope of research in the field of hazard warning systems and some suggestions for developing an efficient mechanism toward the development of an automated integrated geohazard warning system. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000078. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Method for Seismic Microzonation with Geotechnical Aspects

This study presents an overview of seismic microzonation and existing methodologies with a newly proposed methodology covering all aspects. Earlier seismic microzonation methods focused on parameters that affect the structure or foundation related problems. But seismic microzonation has generally been recognized as an important component of urban planning and disaster management. So seismic microzonation should evaluate all possible hazards due to earthquake and represent the same by spatial distribution. This paper presents a new methodology for seismic microzonation which has been generated based on location of study area and possible associated hazards. This new method consists of seven important steps with defined output for each step and these steps are linked with each other. Addressing one step and respective result may not be seismic microzonation, which is practiced widely. This paper also presents importance of geotechnical aspects in seismic microzonation and how geotechnical aspects affect the final map. For the case study, seismic hazard values at rock level are estimated considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Surface level hazard values are estimated considering site specific study and local site effects based on site classification/characterization. The liquefaction hazard is estimated using standard penetration test data. These hazard parameters are integrated in Geographical Information System (GIS) using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and used to estimate hazard index. Hazard index is arrived by following a multi-criteria evaluation technique - AHP, in which each theme and features have been assigned weights and then ranked respectively according to a consensus opinion about their relative significance to the seismic hazard. The hazard values are integrated through spatial union to obtain the deterministic microzonation map and probabilistic microzonation map for a specific return period. Seismological parameters are widely used for microzonation rather than geotechnical parameters. But studies show that the hazard index values are based on site specific geotechnical parameters.