How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

On existence of periodic solutions for stable interval plants with odd, sector type nonlinearities

In several systems, the physical parameters of the system vary over time or operating points. A popular way of representing such plants with structured or parametric uncertainties is by means of interval polynomials. However, ensuring the stability of such systems is a robust control problem. Fortunately, Kharitonov's theorem enables the analysis of such interval plants and also provides tools for design of robust controllers in such cases. The present paper considers one such case, where the interval plant is connected with a timeinvariant, static, odd, sector type nonlinearity in its feedback path. This paper provides necessary conditions for the existence of self sustaining periodic oscillations in such interval plants, and indicates a possible design algorithm to avoid such periodic solutions or limit cycles. The describing function technique is used to approximate the nonlinearity and subsequently arrive at the results. Furthermore, the value set approach, along with Mikhailov conditions, are resorted to in providing graphical techniques for the derivation of the conditions and subsequent design algorithm of the controller.

Off-site impacts of agricultural composting: role of terrestrially derived organic matter in structuring aquatic microbial communities and their metabolic potential

While considered as sustainable and low-cost agricultural amendments, the impacts of organic fertilizers on downstream aquatic microbial communities remain poorly documented. We investigated the quantity and quality of the dissolved organic matter leaching from agricultural soil amended with compost, vermicompost or biochar and assessed their effects on lake microbial communities, in terms of viral and bacterial abundances, community structure and metabolic potential. The addition of compost and vermicompost significantly increased the amount of dissolved organic carbon in the leachate compared with soil alone. Leachates from these additions, either with or without biochar, were highly bioavailable to aquatic microbial communities, although reducing the metabolic potential of the community and harbouring more specific communities. Although not affecting bacterial richness or taxonomic distributions, the specific addition of biochar affected the original lake bacterial communities, resulting in a strongly different community. This could be partly explained by viral burst and converging bacterial abundances throughout the samples. These results underline the necessity to include off-site impacts of agricultural amendments when considering their cascading effect on downstream aquatic ecosystems.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Status of the MSSM Higgs sector using global analysis and direct search bounds, and future prospects at the High Luminosity LHC

In this paper, we search for the regions of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM) parameter space where one can expect to have moderate Higgs mixing angle (alpha) with relatively light (up to 600 GeV) additional Higgses after satisfying the current LHC data. We perform a global fit analysis using most updated data (till December 2014) from the LHC and Tevatron experiments. The constraints coming from the precision measurements of the rare b-decays B-s -> mu(+)mu(-) and b -> s gamma are also considered. We find that low M-A(less than or similar to 350) and high tan beta(greater than or similar to 25) regions are disfavored by the combined effect of the global analysis and flavor data. However, regions with Higgs mixing angle alpha similar to 0.1-0.8 are still allowed by the current data. We then study the existing direct search bounds on the heavy scalar/pseudoscalar (H/A) and charged Higgs boson (H-+/-) masses and branchings at the LHC. It has been found that regions with low to moderate values of tan beta with light additional Higgses (mass <= 600 GeV) are unconstrained by the data, while the regions with tan beta > 20 are excluded considering the direct search bounds by the LHC-8 data. The possibility to probe the region with tan beta <= 20 at the high luminosity run of LHC are also discussed, giving special attention to the H -> hh, H/A -> t (t) over bar and H/A -> tau(+)tau(-) decay modes.