Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Homomorphic Analysis and Modeling of ECG Signals

Homomorphic analysis and pole-zero modeling of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are presented in this paper. Four typical ECG signals are considered and deconvolved into their minimum and maximum phase components through cepstral filtering, with a view to study the possibility of more efficient feature selection from the component signals for diagnostic purposes. The complex cepstra of the signals are linearly filtered to extract the basic wavelet and the excitation function. The ECG signals are, in general, mixed phase and hence, exponential weighting is done to aid deconvolution of the signals. The basic wavelet for normal ECG approximates the action potential of the muscle fiber of the heart and the excitation function corresponds to the excitation pattern of the heart muscles during a cardiac cycle. The ECG signals and their components are pole-zero modeled and the pole-zero pattern of the models can give a clue to classify the normal and abnormal signals. Besides, storing only the parameters of the model can result in a data reduction of more than 3:1 for normal signals sampled at a moderate 128 samples/s

The scratch hardness and friction of a soft rigid-plastic solid

The paper describes an experimental and analytical study of the normal and scratch hardnesses of a model soft rigid-plastic solid. The material known as ‘Plasticine’, a mixture of dry particles and a mineral oil, has been deformed with a range of rigid conical indentors with included angles of between 30° and 170°. The sliding velocity dependence of the computed scratch hardness and friction has been examined in the velocity range 0.19 mm/s to 7.3 m/s. Data are also described for the time dependence of the normal hardness and also the estimated rate dependence of the intrinsic flow stress. The latter values were estimated from data obtained during the upsetting of right cylinders. Three major conclusions are drawn from these data and the associated analysis. (1) A first-order account of the scratching force may be provided by adopting a model which sums the computed plastic deformation and interfacial sliding contributions to the total sliding work. This is tantamount to the adoption of the two-term non-interacting model of friction. (2) For this system during sliding, at high sliding velocities at least, the interface shear stress which defines the boundary condition is not directly related to the bulk shear stress. The interface rheological characteristics indicate an appreciable dependence on the imposed strain or strain rate. In particular, the relative contributions of the slip and stick boundary conditions appear to be a function of the imposed sliding velocity. (3) The computed normal and scratch hardness values are not simply interrelated primarily because of the evolving boundary conditions which appear to exist in the scratching experiments.

Evaluation and improvement of generators reactive power margins in interconnected power systems

The amount of reactive power margin available in a system determines its proximity to voltage instability under normal and emergency conditions. More the reactive power margin, better is the systems security and vice-versa. A hypothetical way of improving the reactive margin of a synchronous generator is to reduce the real power generation within its mega volt-ampere (MVA) ratings. This real power generation reduction will affect its power contract agreements entered in the electricity market. Owing to this, the benefit that the generator foregoes will have to be compensated by paying them some lost opportunity cost. The objective of this study is three fold. Firstly, the reactive power margins of the generators are evaluated. Secondly, they are improved using a reactive power optimization technique and optimally placed unified power flow controllers. Thirdly, the reactive power capacity exchanges along the tie-lines are evaluated under base case and improved conditions. A detailed analysis of all the reactive power sources and sinks scattered throughout the network is carried out in the study. Studies are carried out on a real life, three zone, 72-bus equivalent Indian southern grid considering normal and contingency conditions with base case operating point and optimised results presented.

The Reaction of a Nitro-Capped Cobalt(III) Cage Complex With Base: the Crystal Structure of a Contracted Cage Complex, and the Mechanism of Its Formation

The synthesis, properties and crystal structure of the cage complex (1-hydroxy-8-methyl-3,6,10,13,15,18-hexaazabicyclo[6.6.5]nonadecane)cobalt(III) chloride hydrate ([Co(Me,OH-absar)] C13.H2O) are reported. The mechanism of the formation of this contracted cavity cage from a nitro-capped hexaazabicycloicosane type cage has been investigated. Treatment of (1-methyl-8-nitro-3,6,10,13,16,19-hexaazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane)cobalt(III) chloride ([Co(Me,NO2-sar)] 3+) with excess base in aqueous solution leads initially to rapid (t1/2 < 1 ms) and reversible deprotonation of one coordinated secondary amine. This species undergoes a retro-Mannich type reaction and imine hydrolysis (t1/2 almost-equal-to 90 s). Quenching the reaction with acid gives rise to a pair of isomeric intermediate species which have been isolated and characterized. They have a pendant arm macrocyclic structure, resulting from the loss of a methylene unit from one of the arms of the cap. Heating either isomer in aqueous solution gives the new cage compound with the contracted cap. It is postulated that this occurs through a Nef reaction, resulting in the formation of a ketone which then condenses with the coordinated primary amine. A comparison with the corresponding bicycloicosane analogue indicates a reduced chromophoric cavity size for the contracted cage. The reduction potential of the cobalt(III)/cobalt(II) couple is 170 mV more negative for the smaller cage, and, in the electronic spectrum of the cobalt(III) complex, the d-d transitions are both shifted to higher energy, corresponding to a stronger ligand field.

Wind loading over the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms

The variation of the drag force near the top portions of tall stacks with and without external landing platforms, and with the exit open and closed, has been examined by model studies in a wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers of about 10(5). Pressure measurements on three models of different height to diameter ratios have been supplemented by flow visualisation studies. Observations confirm that when there is no platform, significant load enhancement over the top three to four diameters occurs, due to the high suction caused by the sharp separation of the flow over the top from the rim, in the aft regions of the stack. The enhanced loading is found to be greater if the exit is closed. A platform at the top, of less than twice the exit diameter, further increases the drag force near the top, but a still larger platform at the top, of about three times the exit diameter, decreases the drag force to values less than those much further below, effectively nullifying the enhanced drag force. It was found that such a reduction of the enhanced drag force in the top regions can also be achieved by a smaller platform of 1.1 to 1.3 times the local diameter, located at about three to five diameters below the top.

Use of a specific aromatase inhibitor for determining whether there is a role for oestrogen in follicle/oocyte maturation, ovulation and preimplantation embryo development

The specific role of oestrogen in follicular maturation, ovulation and early embryonic development was investigated using Fadrozole (CGS 16949A), a non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor, to block oestrogen synthesis specifically and effectively in experimental animals. Induced and normal cyclical follicular maturation as well as normal and hCG/LH-induced ovulation were relatively unaffected by significantly depleting oestrogen in all animals (hamsters, rabbits, monkeys) studied other than rats. Fadrozole treatment significantly reduced the number of healthy antral follicles produced and the ovulatory response to exogenous hCG of immature rats primed with pregnant mares' serum gonadotrophin. The effect was specific, in that exogenously administered oestrogen reversed the blockade. Depletion of oestrogen, starting early in pro-oestrus in hamsters, had no effect on ovulation, oocyte maturation and fertilization, as normal implantation sites were seen on day 6 after coitus. In rabbits, oestrogen depletion during the periovulatory phase affected oviductal morphology and function. Although fertilization was not impaired, early embryo development did not appear to be normal. In monkeys, oestrogen depletion during the follicular phase did not lead to a block of follicular maturation or ovulation but resulted in a significant reduction in secretion of cervical mucus. Administration of either Fadrozole or Tamoxifen during the early luteal phase in cyclic monkeys that were allowed to mate prevented implantation and this appears to be due to impaired fertilization or faulty embryo development. These results suggest that, although there is a clear requirement for oestrogen to support the reproductive cycle in the female, the need for oestrogen in regulating specific events is species dependent.

Evaluation and improvement of total transfer capability - A case study

With deregulation, the total transfer capability (TTC) calculation, which is the basis for evaluating available transfer capability (ATC), has become very significant. TTC is an important index in power markets with large volume of inter-area power exchanges and wheeling transactions taking place on an hourly basis. Its computation helps to achieve a viable technical and commercial transmission operation. The aim of the paper is to evaluate TTC in the interconnections and also to improve it using reactive optimization technique and UPFC devices. Computations are carried out for normal and contingency cases such as single line, tie line and generator outages. Base and optimized results are presented, and the results show how reactive optimization and unified power flow controller help to improve the system conditions. In this paper repeated power flow method is used to calculate TTC due to its ease of implementation. A case study is carried out on a 205 bus equivalent system, a part of Indian Southern grid. Parameters like voltage magnitude, L-index, minimum singular value and MW losses are computed to analyze the system performance.

Potential and Electric Field Profiles for Transmission line Insulators

Transmission of bulk power at high voltages over very long distances has become very imperative. At present, throughout the globe, this task has been mostly performed by overhead transmission lines. The dual task of mechanically supporting and electrically isolating the live phase conductors from the support tower is performed by string insulators. Whether in clean condition or under polluted conditions, the electrical stress distribution along the insulators governs the possible flashover, which is quite detrimental to the system. However, a reliable data on stress distribution in commonly employed string insulators are rather scarce. Considering this, the present work has made an attempt to study accurately, the field distribution in 220 kV strings for six different types of porcelain/ceramic insulators (Normal and Antifog discs) used for high voltage transmission. The surface charge simulation method is employed for the required field computation. Voltage and electric stress distribution is deduced and compared across different types of discs. A comparison on normalised surface resistance, which is an indicator for the stress concentration under polluted condition, is also attempted.

Spatial Analysis and Characterisation of Lentic Ecosystems: A Case Study of Varthur Lake, Bangalore

Lentic ecosystems vital functions such as recycling of nutrients, purification of water, recharge of groundwater,augmenting and maintenance of stream flow and habitat provision for a wide variety of flora and fauna along with their recreation values necessitates their sustainable management through appropriate conservation mechanisms. Failure to restore these ecosystems will result in extinction of species or ecosystem types and cause permanent ecological damage. In Bangalore, lentic ecosystems (for example lakes) have played a prominent role serving the needs of agriculture and drinking water. But the burgeoning population accompanied by unplanned developmental activities has led to the drastic reduction in their numbers (from 262 in 1976 to 81). The existing water bodies are contaminated by residential, agricultural, commercial and industrial wastes/effluents. In order to restore the ecosystem, assessment of the level of contamination is crucial. This paper focuses on characterisation and restoration aspects of Varthur lake based on hydrological, morphometric, physical-chemical and socio-economic investigations for a period of six months covering post monsoon seasons. The results of the water quality analysis show that the lake is eutrophic with high concentrations of phosphorous and organic matter. The morphometric analysis indicates that the lake is shallow in relation to its surface area. Socio-economic analyses show dependence of local residents for irrigation, fodder, etc. These analyses highlight the need and urgency to restore the physical, chemical and biological integrity through viable restoration and sustainable watershed management strategies, which include pollution abatement, catchment treatment, desilting of the lake and educating all stakeholders on the conservation and restoration of lake ecosystems.

Modelling and classification of respiratory volume wavefourms

A technique is proposed for classifying respiratory volume waveforms(RVW) into normal and abnormal categories of respiratory pathways. The proposed method transforms the temporal sequence into frequency domain by using an orthogonal transform, namely discrete cosine transform (DCT) and the transformed signal is pole-zero modelled. A Bayes classifier using model pole angles as the feature vector performed satisfactorily when a limited number of RVWs recorded under deep and rapid (DR) manoeuvre are classified.

Aquatic Ecosystems: Conservation, Restoration and Management

Aquatic Ecosystems perform numerous valuable environmental functions. They recycle nutrients, purify water, recharge ground water, augment and maintain stream flow, and provide habitat for a wide variety of flora and fauna and recreation for people. A rapid population increase accompanied by unplanned developmental works has led to the pollution of surface waters due to residential, agricultural, commercial and industrial wastes/effluents and decline in the number of water bodies. Increased demands for drainage of wetlands have been accommodated by channelisation, resulting in further loss of stream habitat, which has led to aquatic organisms becoming extinct or imperiled in increasing numbers and to the impairment of many beneficial uses of water, including drinking, swimming and fishing. Various anthropogenic activities have altered the physical, chemical and biological processes within aquatic ecosystems. An integrated and accelerated effort toward environmental restoration and preservation is needed to stop further degradation of these fragile ecosystems. Failure to restore these ecosystems will result in sharply increased environmental costs later, in the extinction of species or ecosystem types, and in permanent ecological damage.

Reactive power optimization with different objectives in large power systems including HVDC systems and FACTS devices

Present day power systems are growing in size and complexity of operation with inter connections to neighboring systems, introduction of large generating units, EHV 400/765 kV AC transmission systems, HVDC systems and more sophisticated control devices such as FACTS. For planning and operational studies, it requires suitable modeling of all components in the power system, as the number of HVDC systems and FACTS devices of different type are incorporated in the system. This paper presents reactive power optimization with three objectives to minimize the sum of the squares of the voltage deviations (ve) of the load buses, minimization of sum of squares of voltage stability L-indices of load buses (¿L2), and also the system real power loss (Ploss) minimization. The proposed methods have been tested on typical sample system. Results for Indian 96-bus equivalent system including HVDC terminal and UPFC under normal and contingency conditions are presented.

Simulation of Potential and Electric Field Profiles for transmission line Insulators

Since the end of second world war, extra high voltage ac transmission has seen its development. The distances between generating and load centres as well as the amount of power to be handled increased tremendously for last 50 years. The highest commercial voltage has increased to 765 kV in India and 1,200 kV in many other countries. The bulk power transmission has been mostly performed by overhead transmission lines. The dual task of mechanically supporting and electrically isolating the live phase conductors from the support tower is performed by string insulators. Whether in clean condition or under polluted conditions, the electrical stress distribution along the insulators governs the possible flashover, which is quite detrimental to the system. Hence the present investigation aims to study accurately, the field distribution for various types of porcelain/ceramic insulators (Normal and Antifog discs) used for high-voltage transmission. The surface charge simulation method is employed for the field computation. A comparison on normalised surface resistance, which is an indicator for the stress concentration under polluted condition, is also attempted.