113 resultados para WINTER RAINFALL ZONE
Resumo:
New methods involving the manipulation of fundamental wavefronts (e.g., plane and spherical) with simple optical components such as pinholes and spherical lenses have been developed for the fabrication of elliptic, hyperbolic and conical holographic zone plates. Also parabolic zone plates by holographic techniques have been obtained for the first time. The performance behaviour of these zone plates has been studied. Further a phenomenological explanation is offered for the observed improved fringe contrast obtained with a spherical reference wave.
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The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.
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The radiative impact of aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate perturbations. Here we have used independent ground-based radiometer measurements made simultaneously with comprehensive measurements of aerosol microphysical and optical properties at a highly populated urban site, Bangalore (13.02 degrees N, 77.6 degrees E) in southern India during a dedicated campaign during winter of 2004 and summer and pre-monsoon season of 2005. We have also used longer term measurements carried out at this site to present general features of aerosols over this region. The aerosol radiative impact assessments were made from direct measurements of ground reaching irradiance as well as by incorporating measured aerosol properties into a radiative transfer model. Large discrepancies were observed between measured and modeled (using radiative transfer models, which employed measured aerosol properties) radiative impacts. It appears that the presence of elevated aerosol layers and (or) inappropriate description of aerosol state of mixing are (is) responsible for the discrepancies. On a monthly scale reduction of surface irradiance due to the presence of aerosols (estimated using radiative flux measurements) varies from 30 to 65 W m(-2). The lowest values in surface radiative impact were observed during June when there is large reduction in aerosol as a consequence of monsoon rainfall. Large increase in aerosol-induced surface radiative impact was observed from winter to summer. Our investigations re-iterate the inadequacy of aerosol measurements at the surface alone and importance of representing column properties (using vertical profiles) accurately in order to assess aerosol-induced climate changes accurately. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The influence of the pedogenic and climatic contexts on the formation and preservation of pedogenic carbonates in a climosequence in the Western Ghats (Karnataka Plateau, South West India) has been studied. Along the climosequence, the current mean annual rainfall (MAR) varies within a 80 km transect from 6000 mm at the edge of the Plateau to 500 mm inland. Pedogenic carbonates occur in the MAR range of 500-1200 mm. In the semi-arid zone (MAR: 500-900 mm), carbonates occur (i) as rhick hardpan calcretes on pediment slopes and (ii) as nodular horizons in polygenic black soils (i.e. vertisols). In the sub-humid zone (MAR: 900-1500 mm), pedogenic carbonates are disseminated in the black soil matrices either as loose, irregular and friable nodules of millimetric size or as indurated botryoidal nodules of centimetric to pluricentimetric size. They also occur at the top layers of the saprolite either as disseminated pluricentimetric indurated nodules or carbonate-cemented lumps of centimetric to decimetric size. Chemical and isotopic (Sr-87/Sr-86) compositions of the carbonate fraction were determined after leaching with 0.25 N HCl. The corresponding residual fractions containing both primary minerals and authigenic clays were digested separately and analyzed. The trend defined by the Sr-87/Sr-86 signatures of both labile carbonate fractions and corresponding residual fractions indicates that a part of the labile carbonate fraction is genetically linked to the local soil composition. Considering the residual fraction of each sample as the most likely lithogenic source of Ca in carbonates, it is estimated that from 24% to 82% (55% on average) of Ca is derived from local bedrock weathering, leading to a consumption of an equivalent proportion of atmospheric CO2. These values indicate that climatic conditions were humid enough to allow silicate weathering: MAR at the time of carbonate formation likely ranged from 400 to 700 mm, which is 2- to 3-fold less than the current MAR at these locations. The Sr, U and Mg contents and the (U-234/U-238) activity ratio in the labile carbonate fraction help to understand the conditions of carbonate formation. The relatively high concentrations of Sr, U and Mg in black soil carbonates may indicate fast growth and accumulation compared to carbonates in saprolite, possibly due to a better confinement of the pore waters which is supported by their high (U-234/U-238) signatures, and/or to higher content of dissolved carbonates in the pore waters. The occurrence of Ce, Mn and Fe oxides in the cracks of carbonate reflects the existence of relatively humid periods after carbonate formation. The carbonate ages determined by the U-Th method range from 1.33 +/- 0.84 kyr to 7.5 +/- 2.7 kyr and to a cluster of five ages around 20 kyr, i.e. the Last Glacial Maximum period. The young occurrences are only located in the black soils, which therefore constitute sensitive environments for trapping and retaining atmospheric CO2 even on short time scales. The maximum age of carbonates depends on their location in the climatic gradient: from about 20 kyr for centimetric nodules at Mule Hole (MAR = 1100 mm/yr) to 200 kyr for the calcrete at Gundlupet (MAR = 700 mm/yr, Durand et al., 2007). The intensity of rainfall during wet periods would indeed control the lifetime of pedogenic carbonates and thus the duration of inorganic carbon storage in soils. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Working under the hypothesis that magnetic flux in the sun is generated at the bottom of the convection zone, Choudhuri and Gilman (1987; Astrophys. J. 316, 788) found that a magnetic flux tube symmetric around the rotation axis, when released at the bottom of the convection zone, gets deflected by the Coriolis force and tends to move parallel to the rotation axis as it rises in the convection zone. As a result, all the flux emerges at rather high latitudes and the flux observed at the typical sunspot latitudes remains unexplained. Choudhuri (1989; Solar Physics, in press) finds that non-axisymmetric perturbations too cannot subdue the Coriolis force. In this paper, we no longer treat the convection zone to be passive as in the previous papers, but we consider the role of turbulence in the convection zone in inhibiting the Coriolis force. The interaction of the flux tubes with the turbulence is treated in a phenomenological way as follows: (1) Large scale turbulence on the scale of giant cells can physically drag the tubes outwards, thus pulling the flux towards lower latitudes by dominating over the Coriolis force. (2) Small scale turbulence of the size of the tubes can exchange angular momentum with the tube, thus suppressing the growth of the Coriolis force and making the tubes emerge at lower latitudes. Numerical simulations show that the giant cells can drag the tubes and make them emerge at lower latitufes only if the velocities within the giant cells are unrealistically large of if the radii of the flux tubes are as small as 10 km. However, small scale turbulence can successfully suppress the growth of the Coriolis force if the tubes have radii smaller than about 300 km which may not be unreasonable. Such flux tubes can then emerge at low latitudes where sunspots are seen.
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A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.
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Scaled Particle Theory (SPT) has been applied to predict the total free energies of micellization of ionic as well as nonionic micellar systems containing an aryl ring. A modification of the previously developed model has been made, proposing a two-zone model of micellar core which corroborates with the structural information available for such systems. The results are in good agreement with experimental data and also confirm the dictating role of cavity forming free energies for such systems
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The paper presents the importance of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer in driving the diurnal variability of the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio at ground level from an urban station in India. Our observations are the first of their kind from this region. The atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio and the carbon isotopic ratio were measured for both the morning (05:30-07:30 IST) and afternoon time (16:00-18:00 IST) air samples at 5 m above ground level in Bangalore city, Karnataka State (12 degrees 58' N, 77 degrees 38' E, masl = 920 m) for a 10 day period during the winter of 2008. We observed a change of similar to 7% the in CO2 mixing ratio between the morning and afternoon time air samples. A stable isotope analysis of CO2 from morning samples showed a depletion in the carbon isotope ratio by similar to 2 parts per thousand compared to the afternoon samples. Along with the ground-based measurement of air samples, data of radiosonde measurements were also obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department to identify the vertical atmospheric structure at different time in a day. We proposed the presence or absence of the NBL as a controlling factor for the observed variability in the mixing ratio as well as its isotopic composition. Here we used the Keeling model approach to find out the carbon isotope ratio for the local sources. The local sources have further been characterized as anthropogenic and biological respiration (in %) using a two-component mixing model. We also used a vertical mixing model based on the concept of the mixing of isotopically depleted (carbon isotope) ``polluted air'' (PA) with isotopically enriched ``free atmospheric air'' (FA) above. Using this modeling approach, the contribution of FA at ground level is being estimated for both the morning and afternoon time air samples.
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The importance of long-range prediction of rainfall pattern for devising and planning agricultural strategies cannot be overemphasized. However, the prediction of rainfall pattern remains a difficult problem and the desired level of accuracy has not been reached. The conventional methods for prediction of rainfall use either dynamical or statistical modelling. In this article we report the results of a new modelling technique using artificial neural networks. Artificial neural networks are especially useful where the dynamical processes and their interrelations for a given phenomenon are not known with sufficient accuracy. Since conventional neural networks were found to be unsuitable for simulating and predicting rainfall patterns, a generalized structure of a neural network was then explored and found to provide consistent prediction (hindcast) of all-India annual mean rainfall with good accuracy. Performance and consistency of this network are evaluated and compared with those of other (conventional) neural networks. It is shown that the generalized network can make consistently good prediction of annual mean rainfall. Immediate application and potential of such a prediction system are discussed.
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Within the summer monsoon, the circulation and rainfall over the Indian region exhibit large variations over the synoptic scale of 3-7 days and the supersynoptic scales of 10 days and longer. In this paper we discuss some facets of intraseasonal variation on the supersynoptic scale on the basis of existing observational studies and some new analysis. The major variation of the summer monsoon rainfall on this scale is the active-break cycle. The deep convection over the Indian region on a typical day in the active phase is organized over thousands of kilometers in the zonal direction and is associated with a tropical convergence zone (TCZ). The intraseasonal variations on the supersynoptic scale are also coherent on these scales and are related to the space-time variation of the large-scale TCZ. The latitudinal distribution of the occurrence of the TCZ is bimodal with the primary mode over the heated continent and a secondary mode over the ocean. The variation of the continental TCZ is generally out of phase with that of the oceanic TCZ. During the active spells, the TCZ persists over the continent in the monsoon zone. The revival from breaks occurs either by northward propagation of the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean or by genesis of a disturbance in the monsoon zone (often as a result of westward propagations from W. Pacific). The mechanisms governing the fluctuation between active spells and breaks, the interphase transition and the complex interactions of the TCZ over the Indian subcontinent with the TCZ over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the W. Pacific, have yet to be completely understood.
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Phenological observations on tree species in tropical moist forest of Uttara Kannada district (13ℴ55′ to 15ℴ31′ N lat; 74ℴ9′ to 75ℴ10′ E long) during the years 1983–1985 revealed that there exists a strong seasonality for leaf flush, leaf drop and reproduction. Young leaves were produced in the pre-monsoon dry period with a peak in February, followed by the expansion of leaves which was completed in March. Abscission of leaves occurred in the post-monsoon winter period with a peak in December. There were two peaks for flowering (December and March), while fruit ripening had a single peak in May–June, preceding the monsoon rainfall. The duration of maturation of leaves was the shortest, while that of full ripening of fruits was the longest. Mature flowers of evergreen species lasted longer than those of deciduous species; in contrast the phenophase of ripe fruits of deciduous species was longer than that of evergreen species.