Quasi-periodic, global oscillations in sea level pressure on intraseasonal timescales

The sea level pressure (SLP) variability in 30-60 day intraseasonal timescales is investigated using 25 years of reanalysis data addressing two issues. The first concerns the non-zero zonal mean component of SLP near the equator and its meridional connections, and the second concerns the fast eastward propagation (EP) speed of SLP compared to that of zonal wind. It is shown that the entire globe resonates with high amplitude wave activity during some periods which may last for few to several months, followed by lull periods of varying duration. SLP variations in the tropical belt are highly coherent from 25A degrees S to 25A degrees N, uncorrelated with variations in mid latitudes and again significantly correlated but with opposite phase around 60A degrees S and 65A degrees N. Near the equator (8A degrees S-8A degrees N), the zonal mean contributes significantly to the total variance in SLP, and after its removal, SLP shows a dominant zonal wavenumber one structure having a periodicity of 40 days and EP speeds comparable to that of zonal winds in the Indian Ocean. SLP from many of the atmospheric and coupled general circulation models show similar behaviour in the meridional direction although their propagation characteristics in the tropical belt differ widely.

Climatic potential of delta O-18 of Abies spectabilis from the Nepal Himalaya

A 50-year tree-ring delta O-18 chronology of Abies spectabilis growing close to the tree line (3850 m asl) in the Nepal Himalaya is established to explore its dendroclimatic potential. Response function analysis with ambient climatic records revealed that tree-ring delta O-18 is primarily governed by rainfall during the monsoon season (June September), and the regression model accounts for 35% of the variance in rainfall. Extreme dry years identified in instrumental weather data are detected in the delta O-18 chronology. Further, tree-ring delta O-18 is much more sensitive to rainfall fluctuations than other tree-ring parameters such as width and density typically used in dendroclimatology. Correlation analyses with Nino 3.4 SST reveal time-dependent behavior of ENSO-monsoon relationships. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Effect of matrix cracking and material uncertainty on composite plates

A laminated composite plate model based on first order shear deformation theory is implemented using the finite element method.Matrix cracks are introduced into the finite element model by considering changes in the A, B and D matrices of composites. The effects of different boundary conditions, laminate types and ply angles on the behavior of composite plates with matrix cracks are studied.Finally, the effect of material property uncertainty, which is important for composite material on the composite plate, is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic estimates of damage detection reliability in composite plates are made for static and dynamic measurements. It is found that the effect of uncertainty must be considered for accurate damage detection in composite structures. The estimates of variance obtained for observable system properties due to uncertainty can be used for developing more robust damage detection algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal non-linear reinforcement schemes for stochastic automata

Two optimal non-linear reinforcement schemes—the Reward-Inaction and the Penalty-Inaction—for the two-state automaton functioning in a stationary random environment are considered. Very simple conditions of symmetry of the non-linear function figuring in the reinforcement scheme are shown to be necessary and sufficient for optimality. General expressions for the variance and rate of learning are derived. These schemes are compared with the already existing optimal linear schemes in the light of average variance and average rate of learning.

Nonlinear vibration analysis of composite laminated and sandwich plates with random material properties

Nonlinear vibration analysis is performed using a C-0 assumed strain interpolated finite element plate model based on Reddy's third order theory. An earlier model is modified to include the effect of transverse shear variation along the plate thickness and Von-Karman nonlinear strain terms. Monte Carlo Simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling technique is used to obtain the variance of linear and nonlinear natural frequencies of the plate due to randomness in its material properties. Numerical results are obtained for composite plates with different aspect ratio, stacking sequence and oscillation amplitude ratio. The numerical results are validated with the available literature. It is found that the nonlinear frequencies show increasing non-Gaussian probability density function with increasing amplitude of vibration and show dual peaks at high amplitude ratios. This chaotic nature of the dispersion of nonlinear eigenvalues is also r

Modified linear prediction method for directions of arrival estimation of narrow-band plane waves

A modified linear prediction (MLP) method is proposed in which the reference sensor is optimally located on the extended line of the array. The criterion of optimality is the minimization of the prediction error power, where the prediction error is defined as the difference between the reference sensor and the weighted array outputs. It is shown that the L2-norm of the least-squares array weights attains a minimum value for the optimum spacing of the reference sensor, subject to some soft constraint on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). How this minimum norm property can be used for finding the optimum spacing of the reference sensor is described. The performance of the MLP method is studied and compared with that of the linear prediction (LP) method using resolution, detection bias, and variance as the performance measures. The study reveals that the MLP method performs much better than the LP technique.

Random matrices: Universality of ESDs and the circular law

Given an n x n complex matrix A, let mu(A)(x, y) := 1/n vertical bar{1 <= i <= n, Re lambda(i) <= x, Im lambda(i) <= y}vertical bar be the empirical spectral distribution (ESD) of its eigenvalues lambda(i) is an element of C, i = l, ... , n. We consider the limiting distribution (both in probability and in the almost sure convergence sense) of the normalized ESD mu(1/root n An) of a random matrix A(n) = (a(ij))(1 <= i, j <= n), where the random variables a(ij) - E(a(ij)) are i.i.d. copies of a fixed random variable x with unit variance. We prove a universality principle for such ensembles, namely, that the limit distribution in question is independent of the actual choice of x. In particular, in order to compute this distribution, one can assume that x is real or complex Gaussian. As a related result, we show how laws for this ESD follow from laws for the singular value distribution of 1/root n A(n) - zI for complex z. As a corollary, we establish the circular law conjecture (both almost surely and in probability), which asserts that mu(1/root n An) converges to the uniform measure on the unit disc when the a(ij) have zero mean.

Molecular conformation of alamethicin in dimethylsulfoxide solution A two-dimensional n.m.r. study

The solution conformation of alamethicin, a 20-residue antibiotic peptide, has been investigated using two-dimensional n.m.r. spectroscopy. Complete proton resonance assignments of this peptide have been carried out using COSY, SUPERCOSY, RELAY COSY and NOESY two-dimensional spectroscopies. Observation of a large number of nuclear Overhauser effects between sequential backbone amide protons, between backbone amide protons and CβH protons of preceding residues and extensive intramolecular hydrogen bonding patterns of NH protons has established that this polypeptide is in a largely helical conformation. This result is in conformity with earlier reported solid state X-ray results and a recent n.m.r. study in methanol solution (Esposito et al. (1987) Biochemistry26, 1043-1050) but is at variance with an earlier study which favored an extended conformation for the C-terminal half of alamethicin (Bannerjee et al.

Voltage and Temperature Aware Statistical Leakage Analysis Framework Using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have shown great promise in modeling circuit parameters for computer aided design applications. Leakage currents, which depend on process parameters, supply voltage and temperature can be modeled accurately with ANNs. However, the complex nature of the ANN model, with the standard sigmoidal activation functions, does not allow analytical expressions for its mean and variance. We propose the use of a new activation function that allows us to derive an analytical expression for the mean and a semi-analytical expression for the variance of the ANN-based leakage model. To the best of our knowledge this is the first result in this direction. Our neural network model also includes the voltage and temperature as input parameters, thereby enabling voltage and temperature aware statistical leakage analysis (SLA). All existing SLA frameworks are closely tied to the exponential polynomial leakage model and hence fail to work with sophisticated ANN models. In this paper, we also set up an SLA framework that can efficiently work with these ANN models. Results show that the cumulative distribution function of leakage current of ISCAS'85 circuits can be predicted accurately with the error in mean and standard deviation, compared to Monte Carlo-based simulations, being less than 1% and 2% respectively across a range of voltage and temperature values.

The management of large mammals in relation to male strategies and conflict with people

Many large mammals such as elephant, rhino and tiger often come into conflict with people by destroying agricultural crops and even killing people, thus providing a deterrent to conservation efforts. The males of these polygynous species have a greater variance in reproductive success than females, leading to selection pressures favouring a ‘high risk-high gain’ strategy for promoting reproductive success. This brings them into greater conflict with people. For instance, adult male elephants are far more prone than a member of a female-led family herd to raid agricultural crops and to kill people. In polygynous species, the removal of a certain proportion of ‘surplus’ adult males is not likely to affect the fertility and growth rate of the population. Hence, this could be a management tool which would effectively reduce animal-human conflict, and at the same time maintain the viability of the population. Selective removal of males would result in a skewed sex ratio. This would reduce the ‘effective population size’ (as opposed to the total population or census number), increase the rate of genetic drift and, in small populations, lead to inbreeding depression. Plans for managing destructive mammals through the culling of males will have to ensure that the appropriate minimum size in the populations is being maintained.

Parametric instability of stochastic columns

Columns which have stochastically distributed Young's modulus and mass density and are subjected to deterministic periodic axial loadings are considered. The general case of a column supported on a Winkler elastic foundation of random stiffness and also on discrete elastic supports which are also random is considered. Material property fluctuations are modeled as independent one-dimensional univariate homogeneous real random fields in space. In addition to autocorrelation functions or their equivalent power spectral density functions, the input random fields are characterized by scale of fluctuations or variance functions for their second order properties. The foundation stiffness coefficient and the stiffnesses of discrete elastic supports are treated to constitute independent random variables. The system equations of boundary frequencies are obtained using Bolotin's method for deterministic systems. Stochastic FEM is used to obtain the discrete system with random as well as periodic coefficients. Statistical properties of boundary frequencies are derived in terms of input parameter statistics. A complete covariance structure is obtained. The equations developed are illustrated using a numerical example employing a practical correlation structure.

Nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages of central Western Ghats

Community diversity and the population abundance of a particular group of species are controlled by immediate environment, inter-and intra-species interactions, landscape conditions, historical events and evolutionary processes. Nestedness is a measure of order in an ecological system, referring to the order in which the number of species is related to area or other factors. In this study we have studied the nestedness pattern in stream diatom assemblages in 24 stream sites of central Western Ghats, and report 98 taxa from the streams of central Western Ghats region. The communities show highly significant nested pattern. The Mantel test of matrix revealed a strong relationship between species assemblages and environmental conditions at the sites. A significant relationship between species assemblage and environmental condition was observed. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that environmental conditions differed markedly across the sampling sites, with the first three components explaining 78% of variance. Species composition of diatoms is significantly correlated with environmental distance across geographical extent. The current pattern suggests that micro-environment at regional levels influences the species composition of epilithic diatoms in streams. The nestedness shown by the diatom community was highly significant, even though it had a high proportion of idiosyncratic species, characterized with high numbers of cosmopolitan species, whereas the nested species were dominated by endemic species. PCA identifies ionic parameters and nutrients as the major features which determine the characteristics of the sampling sites. Hence the local water quality parameters are the major factors in deciding the diatom species assemblages.

Data compression by linear prediction for storage and transmission of EEG signals

The EEG time series has been subjected to various formalisms of analysis to extract meaningful information regarding the underlying neural events. In this paper the linear prediction (LP) method has been used for analysis and presentation of spectral array data for the better visualisation of background EEG activity. It has also been used for signal generation, efficient data storage and transmission of EEG. The LP method is compared with the standard Fourier method of compressed spectral array (CSA) of the multichannel EEG data. The autocorrelation autoregressive (AR) technique is used for obtaining the LP coefficients with a model order of 15. While the Fourier method reduces the data only by half, the LP method just requires the storage of signal variance and LP coefficients. The signal generated using white Gaussian noise as the input to the LP filter has a high correlation coefficient of 0.97 with that of original signal, thus making LP as a useful tool for storage and transmission of EEG. The biological significance of Fourier method and the LP method in respect to the microstructure of neuronal events in the generation of EEG is discussed.

Performability of automated manufacturing systems with centralized material handling

We present a framework for performance evaluation of manufacturing systems subject to failure and repair. In particular, we determine the mean and variance of accumulated production over a specified time frame and show the usefulness of these results in system design and in evaluating operational policies for manufacturing systems. We extend this analysis for lead time as well. A detailed performability study is carried out for the generic model of a manufacturing system with centralized material handling. Several numerical results are presented, and the relevance of performability analysis in resolving system design issues is highlighted. Specific problems addressed include computing the distribution of total production over a shift period, determining the shift length necessary to deliver a given production target with a desired probability, and obtaining the distribution of Manufacturing Lead Time, all in the face of potential subsystem failures.

Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems

The problem of estimating the time-dependent statistical characteristics of a random dynamical system is studied under two different settings. In the first, the system dynamics is governed by a differential equation parameterized by a random parameter, while in the second, this is governed by a differential equation with an underlying parameter sequence characterized by a continuous time Markov chain. We propose, for the first time in the literature, stochastic approximation algorithms for estimating various time-dependent process characteristics of the system. In particular, we provide efficient estimators for quantities such as the mean, variance and distribution of the process at any given time as well as the joint distribution and the autocorrelation coefficient at different times. A novel aspect of our approach is that we assume that information on the parameter model (i.e., its distribution in the first case and transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the second) is not available in either case. This is unlike most other work in the literature that assumes availability of such information. Also, most of the prior work in the literature is geared towards analyzing the steady-state system behavior of the random dynamical system while our focus is on analyzing the time-dependent statistical characteristics which are in general difficult to obtain. We prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic approximation scheme in each case to the true value of the quantity being estimated. We provide a general class of strongly consistent estimators for the aforementioned statistical quantities with regular sample average estimators being a specific instance of these. We also present an application of the proposed scheme on a widely used model in population biology. Numerical experiments in this framework show that the time-dependent process characteristics as obtained using our algorithm in each case exhibit excellent agreement with exact results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.