Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis

Urbanisation is a dynamic complex phenomenon involving large scale changes in the land uses at local levels. Analyses of changes in land uses in urban environments provide a historical perspective of land use and give an opportunity to assess the spatial patterns, correlation, trends, rate and impacts of the change, which would help in better regional planning and good governance of the region. Main objective of this research is to quantify the urban dynamics using temporal remote sensing data with the help of well-established landscape metrics. Bangalore being one of the rapidly urbanising landscapes in India has been chosen for this investigation. Complex process of urban sprawl was modelled using spatio temporal analysis. Land use analyses show 584% growth in built-up area during the last four decades with the decline of vegetation by 66% and water bodies by 74%. Analyses of the temporal data reveals an increase in urban built up area of 342.83% (during 1973-1992), 129.56% (during 1992-1999), 106.7% (1999-2002), 114.51% (2002-2006) and 126.19% from 2006 to 2010. The Study area was divided into four zones and each zone is further divided into 17 concentric circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand the patterns and extent of the urbanisation at local levels. The urban density gradient illustrates radial pattern of urbanisation for the period 1973-2010. Bangalore grew radially from 1973 to 2010 indicating that the urbanisation is intensifying from the central core and has reached the periphery of the Greater Bangalore. Shannon's entropy, alpha and beta population densities were computed to understand the level of urbanisation at local levels. Shannon's entropy values of recent time confirms dispersed haphazard urban growth in the city, particularly in the outskirts of the city. This also illustrates the extent of influence of drivers of urbanisation in various directions. Landscape metrics provided in depth knowledge about the sprawl. Principal component analysis helped in prioritizing the metrics for detailed analyses. The results clearly indicates that whole landscape is aggregating to a large patch in 2010 as compared to earlier years which was dominated by several small patches. The large scale conversion of small patches to large single patch can be seen from 2006 to 2010. In the year 2010 patches are maximally aggregated indicating that the city is becoming more compact and more urbanised in recent years. Bangalore was the most sought after destination for its climatic condition and the availability of various facilities (land availability, economy, political factors) compared to other cities. The growth into a single urban patch can be attributed to rapid urbanisation coupled with the industrialisation. Monitoring of growth through landscape metrics helps to maintain and manage the natural resources. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A relational contract for water demand management

For necessary goods like water, under supply constraints, fairness considerations lead to negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to design an infinite horizon contract or relational contract (a type of long-term contract) that ensures self-enforcing (instead of court-enforced) behaviour by the agents to mitigate the externality due to fairness issues. In this contract, the consumer is induced to consume at firm-supply level using the threat of higher fair price for future time periods. The pricing mechanism, computed in this paper, internalizes the externality and is shown to be economically efficient and provides revenue sufficiency.

Modeling the vulnerability of an urban groundwater system due to the combined impacts of climate change and management scenarios

Climate change impact on a groundwater-dependent small urban town has been investigated in the semiarid hard rock aquifer in southern India. A distributed groundwater model was used to simulate the groundwater levels in the study region for the projected future rainfall (2012-32) obtained from a general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater system. Management practices were based on the human-induced changes on the urban infrastructure such as reduced recharge from the lakes, reduced recharge from water and wastewater utility due to an operational and functioning underground drainage system, and additional water extracted by the water utility for domestic purposes. An assessment of impacts on the groundwater levels was carried out by calibrating a groundwater model using comprehensive data gathered during the period 2008-11 and then simulating the future groundwater level changes using rainfall from six GCMs Institute of Numerical Mathematics Coupled Model, version 3.0 (INM-CM. 3.0); L'Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4); Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 3.2 (MIROC3.2); ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G); Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3); and Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)] that were found to show good correlation to the historical rainfall in the study area. The model results for the present condition indicate that the annual average discharge (sum of pumping and natural groundwater outflow) was marginally or moderately higher at various locations than the recharge and further the recharge is aided from the recharge from the lakes. Model simulations showed that groundwater levels were vulnerable to the GCM rainfall and a scenario of moderate reduction in recharge from lakes. Hence, it is important to sustain the induced recharge from lakes by ensuring that sufficient runoff water flows to these lakes.

Analytical model for stress-strain response of plastic waste mixed soil

Recycling plastic water bottles has become one of the major challenges world wide. The present study provides an approach for the use of plastic waste as reinforcement material in soil, which can be used for ground improvement, subbases, and subgrade preparation in road construction. The experimental results are presented in the form of stress-strain-pore water pressure response and compression paths. On the basis of experimental test results, it is observed that the strength of soil is improved and compressibility reduced significantly with the addition of a small percentage of plastic waste to the soil. In this paper, an analytical model is proposed to evaluate the response of plastic waste mixed soil. It is noted that the model captures the stress-strain and pore water pressure response of all percentages of plastic waste adequately. The paper also provides a comparative study of failure stress obtained from different published models and the proposed model, which are compared with experimental results. The improvement in strength attributable to the inclusion of plastic waste can be advantageously used in ground improvement projects.

Modeling Equitable Distribution of Water: Dynamic Inversion-Based Controller Approach

It is a well-known fact that most of the developing countries have intermittent water supply and the quantity of water supplied from the source is also not distributed equitably among the consumers. Aged pipelines, pump failures, and improper management of water resources are some of the main reasons for it. This study presents the application of a nonlinear control technique to overcome this problem in different zones in the city of Bangalore. The water is pumped to the city from a large distance of approximately 100km over a very high elevation of approximately 400m. The city has large undulating terrain among different zones, which leads to unequal distribution of water. The Bangalore, inflow water-distribution system (WDS) has been modeled. A dynamic inversion (DI) nonlinear controller with proportional integral derivative (PID) features (DI-PID) is used for valve throttling to achieve the target flows to different zones of the city. This novel approach of equitable water distribution using DI-PID controllers that can be used as a decision support system is discussed in this paper.

Treatment of gray water using anaerobic biofilms created on synthetic and natural fibers

Gray water treatment and reuse is an immediate option to counter the upcoming water shortages in various parts of world, especially urban areas. Anaerobic treatment of gray water in houses is an alternative low cost, low energy and low sludge generating option that can meet this challenge. Typical problems of fluctuating VFA, low pH and sludge washout at low loading rates with gray water feedstock was overcome in two chambered anaerobic biofilm reactors using natural fibers as the biofilm support. The long term performance of using natural fiber based biofilms at moderate and low organic loading rates (OLR) have been examined. Biofilms raised on natural fibers (coir, ridge-gourd) were similar to that of synthetic media (PVC, polyethylene) at lower OLR when operated in pulse fed mode without effluent recirculation and achieved 80-90% COD removal at HRT of 2 d showing a small variability during start-up. Confocal microscopy of the biofilms on natural fibers indicated thinner biofilms, dense cell architecture and low extra cellular polymeric substances (EPS) compared to synthetic supports and this is believed to be key factor in high performance at low OLR and low strength gray water. Natural fibers are thus shown to be an effective biofilm support that withstand fluctuating characteristic of domestic gray water. (C) 2013 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GHG footprint of major cities in India

Concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere has been increasing rapidly during the last century due to ever increasing anthropogenic activities resulting in significant increases in the temperature of the Earth causing global warming. Major sources of GHG are forests (due to human induced land cover changes leading to deforestation), power generation (burning of fossil fuels), transportation (burning fossil fuel), agriculture (livestock, farming, rice cultivation and burning of crop residues), water bodies (wetlands), industry and urban activities (building, construction, transport, solid and liquid waste). Aggregation of GHG (CO2 and non-CO2 gases), in terms of Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e), indicate the GHG footprint. GHG footprint is thus a measure of the impact of human activities on the environment in terms of the amount of greenhouse gases produced. This study focuses on accounting of the amount of three important greenhouses gases namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and thereby developing GHG footprint of the major cities in India. National GHG inventories have been used for quantification of sector-wise greenhouse gas emissions. Country specific emission factors are used where all the emission factors are available. Default emission factors from IPCC guidelines are used when there are no country specific emission factors. Emission of each greenhouse gas is estimated by multiplying fuel consumption by the corresponding emission factor. The current study estimates GHG footprint or GHG emissions (in terms of CO2 equivalent) for Indian major cities and explores the linkages with the population and GDP. GHG footprint (Aggregation of Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of GHG's) of Delhi, Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Greater Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad are found to be 38,633.2 Gg, 22,783.08 Gg, 14,812.10 Gg, 22,090.55 Gg, 19,796.5 Gg, 13,734.59 Gg and 91,24.45 Gg CO2 eq., respectively. The major contributors sectors are transportation sector (contributing 32%, 17.4%, 13.3%, 19.5%, 43.5%, 56.86% and 25%), domestic sector (contributing 30.26%, 37.2%, 42.78%, 39%, 21.6%, 17.05% and 27.9%) and industrial sector (contributing 7.9%, 7.9%, 17.66%, 20.25%, 1231%, 11.38% and 22.41%) of the total emissions in Delhi, Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Greater Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad, respectively. Chennai emits 4.79 t of CO2 equivalent emissions per capita, the highest among all the cities followed by Kolkata which emits 3.29 t of CO2 equivalent emissions per capita. Also Chennai emits the highest CO2 equivalent emissions per GDP (2.55 t CO2 eq./Lakh Rs.) followed by Greater Bangalore which emits 2.18 t CO2 eq./Lakh Rs. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability Assessment of a Storm Water Drain Network

Most of the cities in India are undergoing rapid development in recent decades, and many rural localities are undergoing transformation to urban hotspots. These developments have associated land use/land cover (LULC) change that effects runoff response from catchments, which is often evident in the form of increase in runoff peaks, volume and velocity in drain network. Often most of the existing storm water drains are in dilapidated stage owing to improper maintenance or inadequate design. The drains are conventionally designed using procedures that are based on some anticipated future conditions. Further, values of parameters/variables associated with design of the network are traditionally considered to be deterministic. However, in reality, the parameters/variables have uncertainty due to natural and/or inherent randomness. There is a need to consider the uncertainties for designing a storm water drain network that can effectively convey the discharge. The present study evaluates performance of an existing storm water drain network in Bangalore, India, through reliability analysis by Advance First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method. In the reliability analysis, parameters that are considered to be random variables are roughness coefficient, slope and conduit dimensions. Performance of the existing network is evaluated considering three failure modes. The first failure mode occurs when runoff exceeds capacity of the storm water drain network, while the second failure mode occurs when the actual flow velocity in the storm water drain network exceeds the maximum allowable velocity for erosion control, whereas the third failure mode occurs when the minimum flow velocity is less than the minimum allowable velocity for deposition control. In the analysis, runoff generated from subcatchments of the study area and flow velocity in storm water drains are estimated using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Results from the study are presented and discussed. The reliability values are low under the three failure modes, indicating a need to redesign several of the conduits to improve their reliability. This study finds use in devising plans for expansion of the Bangalore storm water drain system. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.