Prediction of Shallow Landslide prone regions in Undulating Terrains

Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with free and open source software (FOSS) - Open Modeller were used to model the probable landslide occurrence points. Environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index and precipitation have been used in modeling. Simulated output of these techniques is validated with the actual landslide occurrence points, which showed 92% (GARP) and 96% (SVM) accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest month and 91% and 94% accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.

Prediction of Ground Water Levels in the Uplands of a Tropical Coastal Riparian Wetland using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.

Influence of rock depth on seismic site classification for shallow bedrock regions

Seismic site classifications are used to represent site effects for estimating hazard parameters (response spectral ordinates) at the soil surface. Seismic site classifications have generally been carried out using average shear wave velocity and/or standard penetration test n-values of top 30-m soil layers, according to the recommendations of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) or the International Building Code (IBC). The site classification system in the NEHRP and the IBC is based on the studies carried out in the United States where soil layers extend up to several hundred meters before reaching any distinct soil-bedrock interface and may not be directly applicable to other regions, especially in regions having shallow geological deposits. This paper investigates the influence of rock depth on site classes based on the recommendations of the NEHRP and the IBC. For this study, soil sites having a wide range of average shear wave velocities (or standard penetration test n-values) have been collected from different parts of Australia, China, and India. Shear wave velocities of rock layers underneath soil layers have also been collected at depths from a few meters to 180 m. It is shown that a site classification system based on the top 30-m soil layers often represents stiffer site classes for soil sites having shallow rock depths (rock depths less than 25 m from the soil surface). A new site classification system based on average soil thickness up to engineering bedrock has been proposed herein, which is considered more representative for soil sites in shallow bedrock regions. It has been observed that response spectral ordinates, amplification factors, and site periods estimated using one-dimensional shear wave analysis considering the depth of engineering bedrock are different from those obtained considering top 30-m soil layers.

Sea-level changes and its impact on coastal archaeological monuments: seven pagodas of Mahabalipuram, a case study

The name `Seven Pagodas' has served as a nickname for the south Indian port of Mahabalipuram since the early European explorers used it as landmark for navigation as they could see summits of seven temples from the sea. There are many theories concerning the name Seven Pagodas. The present study has compared coastline and adjacent seven monuments illustrated in a 17th century Portolan Chart (maritime map) with recent remote sensing data. This analysis throws new light on the name ``Seven Pagodas'' for the city. This study has used DEM of the site to simulate the coastline which is similar to the one depicted in the old portolan chart. Through this, the then sea level and corresponding flooding extent according to topography of the area and their effect on monuments could be analyzed. Most importantly this work has in the process identified possibly the seven monuments that constituted the name Seven Pagodas and this provides an alternative explanation to one of the mysteries of history. This work has demonstrated unique method of studying coastal archaeological sites. As large numbers of heritage sites around the world are on coastlines, this methodology has potential to be very useful for coastal heritage preservation and management.

Narrowband signal detection techniques in shallow ocean by acoustic vector sensor array

This paper presents the formulation and performance analysis of four techniques for detection of a narrowband acoustic source in a shallow range-independent ocean using an acoustic vector sensor (AVS) array. The array signal vector is not known due to the unknown location of the source. Hence all detectors are based on a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) which involves estimation of the array signal vector. One non-parametric and three parametric (model-based) signal estimators are presented. It is shown that there is a strong correlation between the detector performance and the mean-square signal estimation error. Theoretical expressions for probability of false alarm and probability of detection are derived for all the detectors, and the theoretical predictions are compared with simulation results. It is shown that the detection performance of an AVS array with a certain number of sensors is equal to or slightly better than that of a conventional acoustic pressure sensor array with thrice as many sensors.

Development of a regional model for the North Indian Ocean

We have developed a one-way nested Indian Ocean regional model. The model combines the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Modular Ocean Model (MOM4p1) at global climate model resolution (nominally one degree), and a regional Indian Ocean MOM4p1 configuration with 25 km horizontal resolution and 1 m vertical resolution near the surface. Inter-annual global simulations with Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) surface forcing over years 1992-2005 provide surface boundary conditions. We show that relative to the global simulation, (i) biases in upper ocean temperature, salinity and mixed layer depth are reduced, (ii) sea surface height and upper ocean circulation are closer to observations, and (iii) improvements in model simulation can be attributed to refined resolution, more realistic topography and inclusion of seasonal river runoff. Notably, the surface salinity bias is reduced to less than 0.1 psu over the Bay of Bengal using relatively weak restoring to observations, and the model simulates the strong, shallow halocline often observed in the North Bay of Bengal. There is marked improvement in subsurface salinity and temperature, as well as mixed layer depth in the Bay of Bengal. Major seasonal signatures in observed sea surface height anomaly in the tropical Indian Ocean, including the coastal waveguide around the Indian peninsula, are simulated with great fidelity. The use of realistic topography and seasonal river runoff brings the three dimensional structure of the East India Coastal Current and West India Coastal Current much closer to observations. As a result, the incursion of low salinity Bay of Bengal water into the southeastern Arabian Sea is more realistic. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for predicting the consolidated undrained bearing capacity of shallow foundations

The effect of consolidation on the undrained bearing capacity of both rough and smooth strip and circular surface foundations is investigated, examining the influence of the magnitude and duration of an applied preload and the initial over-consolidation ratio of the deposit. The investigation comprised small strain finite-element analysis, with the soil response represented by Modified Cam Clay. The results are distilled into dimensionless and generalised forms, from which simple trends emerge. Based on these results, a simple method for predicting the consolidated undrained bearing capacity is proposed.

Hydrographical characteristics and oxygen isotopic signatures of water in a coastal environment (Mangalore) along the southeastern Arabian Sea

Coastal marine environments are important links between the continents and the open ocean. The coast off Mangalore forms part of the upwelling zone along the southeastern Arabian Sea. The temperature, salinity, density, dissolved oxygen and stable oxygen isotope ratio (delta O-18) of surface waters as well as those of bottom waters off coastal Mangalore were studied every month from October 2010 to May 2011. The coastal waters were stratified in October and November due to precipitation and runoff. The region was characterised by upwelled bottom waters in October, whereas the region exhibited a temperature inversion in November. The surface and bottom waters presented almost uniform properties from December until April. The coastal waters were observed to be most dense in January and May. Comparatively cold and poorly oxygenated bottom waters during the May sampling indicated the onset of upwelling along the region. delta O-18 of the coastal waters successfully documented the observed variations in the hydrographical characteristics of the Mangalore coast during the monthly sampling period. We also noted that the monthly variability in the properties of the coastal waters of Mangalore was related to the hydrographical characteristics of the adjacent open ocean inferred from satellite-derived surface winds, sea surface height anomaly data and sea surface temperatures.

Three-dimensional localization of multiple acoustic sources in shallow ocean with non-Gaussian noise

In this paper, a low-complexity algorithm SAGE-USL is presented for 3-dimensional (3-D) localization of multiple acoustic sources in a shallow ocean with non-Gaussian ambient noise, using a vertical and a horizontal linear array of sensors. In the proposed method, noise is modeled as a Gaussian mixture. Initial estimates of the unknown parameters (source coordinates, signal waveforms and noise parameters) are obtained by known/conventional methods, and a generalized expectation maximization algorithm is used to update the initial estimates iteratively. Simulation results indicate that convergence is reached in a small number of (<= 10) iterations. Initialization requires one 2-D search and one 1-D search, and the iterative updates require a sequence of 1-D searches. Therefore the computational complexity of the SAGE-USL algorithm is lower than that of conventional techniques such as 3-D MUSIC by several orders of magnitude. We also derive the Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) for 3-D localization of multiple sources in a range-independent ocean. Simulation results are presented to show that the root-mean-square localization errors of SAGE-USL are close to the corresponding CRBs and significantly lower than those of 3-D MUSIC. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A modeling study of the processes of surface salinity seasonal cycle in the Bay of Bengal

In response to the Indian Monsoon freshwater forcing, the Bay of Bengal exhibits a very strong seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS), especially near the mouths of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and along the east coast of India. In this paper, we use an eddy-permitting (similar to 25 km resolution) regional ocean general circulation model simulation to quantify the processes responsible for this SSS seasonal cycle. Despite the absence of relaxation toward observations, the model reproduces the main features of the observed SSS seasonal cycle, with freshest water in the northeastern Bay, particularly during and after the monsoon. The model also displays an intense and shallow freshening signal in a narrow (similar to 100 km wide) strip that hugs the east coast of India, from September to January, in good agreement with high-resolution measurements along two ships of opportunity lines. The mixed layer salt budget confirms that the strong freshening in the northern Bay during the monsoon results from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge and from precipitation over the ocean. From September onward, the East India Coastal Current transports this freshwater southward along the east coast of India, reaching the southern tip of India in November. The surface freshening results in an enhanced vertical salinity gradient that increases salinity of the surface layer by vertical processes. Our results reveal that the erosion of the freshwater tongue along the east coast of India is not driven by northward horizontal advection, but by vertical processes that eventually overcome the freshening by southward advection and restore SSS to its premonsoon values. The salinity-stratified barrier layer hence only acts as a ``barrier'' for vertical heat fluxes, but is associated with intense vertical salt fluxes in the Bay of Bengal.

Dense shallow granular flows

Simplified equations are derived for a granular flow in the `dense' limit where the volume fraction is close to that for dynamical arrest, and the `shallow' limit where the stream-wise length for flow development (L) is large compared with the cross-stream height (h). The mass and diameter of the particles are set equal to 1 in the analysis without loss of generality. In the dense limit, the equations are simplified by taking advantage of the power-law divergence of the pair distribution function chi proportional to (phi(ad) - phi)(-alpha), and a faster divergence of the derivativ rho(d chi/d rho) similar to (d chi/d phi), where rho and phi are the density and volume fraction, and phi(ad) is the volume fraction for arrested dynamics. When the height h is much larger than the conduction length, the energy equation reduces to an algebraic balance between the rates of production and dissipation of energy, and the stress is proportional to the square of the strain rate (Bagnold law). In the shallow limit, the stress reduces to a simplified Bagnold stress, where all components of the stress are proportional to (partial derivative u(x)/partial derivative y)(2), which is the cross-stream (y) derivative of the stream-wise (x) velocity. In the simplified equations for dense shallow flows, the inertial terms are neglected in the y momentum equation in the shallow limit because the are O(h/L) smaller than the divergence of the stress. The resulting model contains two equations, a mass conservation equations which reduces to a solenoidal condition on the velocity in the incompressible limit, and a stream-wise momentum equation which contains just one parameter B which is a combination of the Bagnold coefficients and their derivatives with respect to volume fraction. The leading-order dense shallow flow equations, as well as the first correction due to density variations, are analysed for two representative flows. The first is the development from a plug flow to a fully developed Bagnold profile for the flow down an inclined plane. The analysis shows that the flow development length is ((rho) over barh(3)/B) , where (rho) over bar is the mean density, and this length is numerically estimated from previous simulation results. The second example is the development of the boundary layer at the base of the flow when a plug flow (with a slip condition at the base) encounters a rough base, in the limit where the momentum boundary layer thickness is small compared with the flow height. Analytical solutions can be found only when the stream-wise velocity far from the surface varies as x(F), where x is the stream-wise distance from the start of the rough base and F is an exponent. The boundary layer thickness increases as (l(2)x)(1/3) for all values of F, where the length scale l = root 2B/(rho) over bar. The analysis reveals important differences between granular flows and the flows of Newtonian fluids. The Reynolds number (ratio of inertial and viscous terms) turns out to depend only on the layer height and Bagnold coefficients, and is independent of the flow velocity, because both the inertial terms in the conservation equations and the divergence of the stress depend on the square of the velocity/velocity gradients. The compressibility number (ratio of the variation in volume fraction and mean volume fraction) is independent of the flow velocity and layer height, and depends only on the volume fraction and Bagnold coefficients.

Low-frequency modes in an equatorial shallow-water model with moisture gradients

Motivated by observations of the mean state of tropical precipitable water (PW), a moist, first baroclinic mode, shallow-water system on an equatorial beta-plane with a background saturation profile that depends on latitude and longitude is studied. In the presence of a latitudinal moisture gradient, linear analysis of the non-rotating problem reveals large-scale, symmetric, eastward and westward propagating unstable modes. The introduction of a zonal moisture gradient breaks the east-west symmetry of the unstable modes. The effects of rotation are then included by numerically solving the resulting eigenvalue problem on an equatorial beta-plane. With a purely meridional moisture gradient, the system supports large-scale, low-frequency, eastward and westward moving neutral modes. Some of the similarities, and some of the discrepancies of these modes with intraseasonal tropical waves are pointed out. Finally, a zonal moisture gradient in the presence of rotation renders some of the aforementioned neutral modes unstable. In particular, according to observations of large-scale, low-frequency tropical variability, it is seen that regions where the background saturation profile increases (decreases) to the east favour eastward (westward) moving moist modes.

Seismic Bearing Capacity of Shallow Embedded Foundations on a Sloping Ground Surface

By using the lower-bound theorem of the limit analysis in conjunction with finite elements and nonlinear optimization, bearing-capacity factors, N-c and N-gamma q, with an inclusion of pseudostatic horizontal seismic body forces, have been determined for a shallow embedded horizontal strip footing placed on sloping ground surface. The variation of N-c and N-gamma q with changes in slope angle (beta) for different values of seismic acceleration coefficient (k(h)) has been obtained. The analysis reveals that irrespective of ground inclination and the embedment depth of the footing, the factors N-c and N-gamma q decrease quite considerably with an increase in k(h). As compared with N-c, the factor N-gamma q is affected more extensively with changes in k(h) and beta. Unlike most of the results reported in literature for the seismic case, the present computational results take into account the shear resistance of soil mass above the footing level. An increase in the depth of the embedment leads to an increase in the magnitudes of both N-c and N-gamma q. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Appraisal of groundwater resource in Holocene soil deposits by resistivity, hydrochemical and granulomerial studies in the Gulf of Mannar Coast from Southern India

This article is aimed to delineate groundwater sources in Holocene deposits area in the Gulf of Mannar Coast from Southern India. For this purpose 2-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), hydrochemical and granulomerical studies were carried out and integrated to identify hydrogeological structures and portable groundwater resource in shallow depths which in general appears in the coastal tracts. The 2-D ERT was used to determine the two-dimensional subsurface geological formations by multicore cable with Wenner array. Low resistivity of 1-5 Omega m for saline water appeared due to calcite at the depth of about 5 m below the ground level (bgl). Sea water intrusion was observed around the maximum resistivity as 5 Omega m at the 8 m depth, bgl in the calcite environs, but the calcareous sandstone layer shows around 15-64 Omega m at the 6 m depth, bgl. The hydrochemical variation of TDS, HCO3-, Cl-, Na+, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ concentrations was observed for the saline and sea water intrusion in the groundwater system. The granulometic analysis shows that the study area was under the sea between 5400 and 3000 year ago. The events of ice melting an unnatural ice-stone rain/hail among 5000-4000 years ago resulted in the inundation of sea over the area and deposits of late Holocene marine transgression formation up to Puthukottai quartzite region for a stretch of around 17 km.