Seismic intensity map of South India for estimated future earthquakes

In this study, an attempt has been made to prepare the seismic intensity map for south India considering the probable earthquakes in the region. Anbazhagan et al. (Nat Hazards 60:1325-1345, 2012) have identified eight probable future earthquake zones in south India based on rupture-based seismic hazard analysis. Anbazhagan et al. (Eng Geol 171:81-95, 2014) has estimated the maximum future earthquake magnitude at these eight zones using regional rupture character. In this study, the whole south India is divided into several grids of size 1(o) x 1(o) and the intensity at each grid point is calculated using the regional intensity model for the maximum earthquake magnitude at each of the eight zones. The intensity due to earthquakes at these zones is mapped and thus eight seismic intensity maps are prepared. The final seismic intensity map of south India is obtained by considering the maximum intensity at each grid point due to the estimated earthquakes. By looking at the seismic intensity map, one can expect slight to heavy damage due to the probable earthquake magnitudes. Heavy damage may happen close to the probable earthquake zones.

Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach

In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0 degrees N-20 degrees N; 72 degrees E-88 degrees E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing theseismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x0.1 degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.

Mapping of Average Shear Wave Velocity for Bangalore Region: A Case Study

Mapping the shear wave velocity profile is an important part in seismic hazard and microzonation studies. The shear wave velocity of soil in the city of Bangalore was mapped using the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) technique. An empirical relationship was found between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) corrected N value ((N1)60cs) and measured shear wave velocity (Vs). The survey points were selected in such a way that the results represent the entire Bangalore region, covering an area of 220 km2. Fifty-eight 1-D and 20 2-D MASW surveys were performed and their velocity profiles determined. The average shear wave velocity of Bangalore soils was evaluated for depths of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, 20 m, 25 m and 30 m. The sub-soil classification was made for seismic local site effect evaluation based on average shear wave velocity of 30-m depth (Vs30) of sites using the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and International Building Code (IBC) classification. Mapping clearly indicates that the depth of soil obtained from MASW closely matches with the soil layers identified in SPT bore holes. Estimation of local site effects for an earthquake requires knowledge of the dynamic properties of soil, which is usually expressed in terms of shear wave velocity. Hence, to make use of abundant SPT data available on many geotechnical projects in Bangalore, an attempt was made to develop a relationship between Vs (m/s) and (N1)60cs. The measured shear wave velocity at 38 locations close to SPT boreholes was used to generate the correlation between the corrected N values and shear wave velocity. A power fit model correlation was developed with a regression coefficient (R2) of 0.84. This relationship between shear wave velocity and corrected SPT N values correlates well with the Japan Road Association equations.

Total risk rating and stability analysis of embankment dams in the Kachchh Region, Gujarat, India

A method for total risk analysis of embankment dams under earthquake conditions is discussed and applied to the selected embankment dams, i.e., Chang, Tapar, Rudramata, and Kaswati located in the Kachchh region of Gujarat, India, to obtain the seismic hazard rating of the dam site and the risk rating of the structures. Based on the results of the total risk analysis of the dams, coupled non-linear dynamic numerical analyses of the dam sections are performed using acceleration time history record of the Bhuj (India) earthquake as well as five other major earthquakes recorded worldwide. The objective of doing so is to perform the numerical analysis of the dams for the range of amplitude, frequency content and time duration of input motions. The deformations calculated from the numerical analyses are also compared with other approaches available in literature, viz, Makdisi and Seed (1978) approach, Jansen's approach (1990), Swaisgood's method (1995), Bureau's method (1997). Singh et al. approach (2007), and Saygili and Rathje approach (2008) and the results are utilized to foresee the stability of dams in future earthquake scenario. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of spatial variation of peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration for south India: a probabilistic approach

In this work, an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial variation of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at rock level for south India based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). These values were estimated by considering the uncertainties involved in magnitude, hypocentral distance and attenuation of seismic waves. Different models were used for the hazard evaluation, and they were combined together using a logic tree approach. For evaluating the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1A degrees A xA 0.1A degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 km. Rock level PHA values and SA at 1 s corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years were evaluated for all the grid points. Maps showing the spatial variation of rock level PHA values and SA at 1 s for the entire south India are presented in this paper. To compare the seismic hazard for some of the important cities, the seismic hazard curves and the uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are also presented in this work.

Constraining large earthquakes along the Andaman trench using deepwater turbidites: prospects and challenges

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was unprecedented in terms of its magnitude (M-w 9.2), rupture length along the plate boundary (1300 km) and size of the resultant tsunami. Since 2004, efforts are being made to improve the understanding of the seismic hazard in the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone in terms of recurrence patterns of major earthquakes and tsunamis. It is reasonable to assume that previous earthquake events in the Myanmar Andaman segment must be preserved in the geological record in the form of seismo-turbidite sequences. Here we present the prospects of conducting deep ocean palaeoseismicity investigations in order to refine the quantification of the recurrence pattern of large subduction-zone earthquakes along the Andaman-Myanmar arc. Our participation in the Sagar Kanya cruise SK-273 (in June 2010) was to test the efficacy of such a survey. The primary mission of the cruise, along a short length (300 km) of the Sumatra Andaman subduction front was to collect bathymetric data of the ocean floor trenchward of the Andaman Islands. The agenda of our piggyback survey was to fix potential coring sites that might preserve seismo-turbidite deposits. In this article we present the possibilities and challenges of such an exercise and our first-hand experience of such a preliminary survey. This account will help future researchers with similar scientific objectives who would want to survey the deep ocean archives of this region for evidence of extreme events like major earthquakes.

Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

Influence of rock depth on seismic site classification for shallow bedrock regions

Seismic site classifications are used to represent site effects for estimating hazard parameters (response spectral ordinates) at the soil surface. Seismic site classifications have generally been carried out using average shear wave velocity and/or standard penetration test n-values of top 30-m soil layers, according to the recommendations of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) or the International Building Code (IBC). The site classification system in the NEHRP and the IBC is based on the studies carried out in the United States where soil layers extend up to several hundred meters before reaching any distinct soil-bedrock interface and may not be directly applicable to other regions, especially in regions having shallow geological deposits. This paper investigates the influence of rock depth on site classes based on the recommendations of the NEHRP and the IBC. For this study, soil sites having a wide range of average shear wave velocities (or standard penetration test n-values) have been collected from different parts of Australia, China, and India. Shear wave velocities of rock layers underneath soil layers have also been collected at depths from a few meters to 180 m. It is shown that a site classification system based on the top 30-m soil layers often represents stiffer site classes for soil sites having shallow rock depths (rock depths less than 25 m from the soil surface). A new site classification system based on average soil thickness up to engineering bedrock has been proposed herein, which is considered more representative for soil sites in shallow bedrock regions. It has been observed that response spectral ordinates, amplification factors, and site periods estimated using one-dimensional shear wave analysis considering the depth of engineering bedrock are different from those obtained considering top 30-m soil layers.

Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.

Liquefaction Hazard Mapping of Bangalore, South India

his paper presents identification and mapping of vulnerable and safe zones for liquefaction hazard. About 850 bore logs data collected from geotechnical investigation reports have been used to estimate the liquefaction factor of safety for Bangalore Mahanagara palike (BMP) area of about 220 km(2). Liquefaction factor of safety is arrived based on surface level peak ground acceleration presented by Anbazhagan and Sitharam(5) and liquefaction resistance, using corrected standard penetration test (SPT) N values. The estimated factor of safety against liquefaction is used to estimate liquefaction potential index and liquefaction severity index. These values are mapped using Geographical information system (GIS) to identify the vulnerable and safe zones in Bangalore. This study shows that more than 95% of the BMP area is safe against liquefaction potential. However the western part of the BMP is not safe against liquefaction, as it may be subjected to liquefaction with probability of 35 to 65%. Three approaches used in this study show that 1) mapping least factor of safety irrespective of depth may be used to find liquefiable area for worst case. 2) mapping liquefaction potential index can be used to assess the liquefaction severity of the area by considering layer thickness and factor of safety and 3) mapping of liquefaction severity index can be used to access the probability of liquefaction of area.

Nonstationary Random Critical Seismic Excitations

A method is presented to find nonstationary random seismic excitations with a constraint on mean square value such that the response variance of a given linear system is maximized. It is also possible to incorporate the dominant input frequency into the analysis. The excitation is taken to be the product of a deterministic enveloping function and a zero mean Gaussian stationary random process. The power spectral density function of this process is determined such that the response variance is maximized. Numerical results are presented for a single-degree system and an earth embankment modeled as shear beam.

Probabilistic Seismic Design of Pile Foundations in Non Liquefiable Soil by Response Spectrum Approach

The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.