Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polarimetric Measurements in a Severe Hailstorm

This study explores the utility of polarimetric measurements for discriminating between hydrometeor types with the emphasis on (a) hail detection and discrimination of its size, (b) measurement of heavy precipitation, (c) identification and quantification of mixed-phase hydrometeors, and (d) discrimination of ice forms. In particular, we examine the specific differential phase, the backscatter differential phase, the correlation coefficient between vertically and horizontally polarized waves, and the differential reflectivity, collected from a storm at close range. Three range–height cross sections are analyzed together with complementary data from a prototype WSR-88D radar. The case is interesting because it demonstrates the complementary nature of these polarimetric measurands. Self-consistency among them allows qualitative and some quantitative discrimination between hydrometeors.

Friction-formed liquid droplets

The formation of nanoscale liquid droplets by friction of a solid is observed in real-time. This is achieved using a newly developed in situ transmission electron microscope (TEM) triboprobe capable of applying multiple reciprocating wear cycles to a nanoscale surface. Dynamical imaging of the nanoscale cyclic rubbing of a focused-ion-beam (FIB) processed Al alloy by diamond shows that the generation of nanoscale wear particles is followed by a phase separation to form liquid Ga nanodroplets and liquid bridges. The transformation of a two-body system to a four-body solid-liquid system within the reciprocating wear track significantly alters the local dynamical friction and wear processes. Moving liquid bridges are observed in situ to play a key role at the sliding nanocontact, interacting strongly with the highly mobile nanoparticle debris. In situ imaging demonstrates that both static and moving liquid droplets exhibit asymmetric menisci due to nanoscale surface roughness. Nanodroplet kinetics are furthermore dependent on local frictional temperature, with solid-like surface nanofilaments forming on cooling. TEM nanotribology opens up new avenues for the real-time quantification of cyclic friction, wear and dynamic solid-liquid nanomechanics, which will have widespread applications in many areas of nanoscience and nanotechnology.

Recognition of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Their Derivatives by the 1,3-Dinaphthalimide Conjugate of Calix4]arene: Emission, Absorption, Crystal Structures, and Computational Studies

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are environmental pollutants as well as well-known carcinogens. Therefore, it is important to develop an effective receptor for the detection and quantification of such molecules in solution. In view of this, a 1,3-dinaphthalimide derivative of calix4]arene (L) has been synthesized and characterized, and the structure has been established by single crystal XRD. In the crystal lattice, intermolecular arm-to-arm pi center dot center dot center dot pi overlap dominates and thus L becomes a promising receptor for providing interactions with the aromatic species in solution, which can be monitored by following the changes that occur in its fluorescence and absorption spectra. On the basis of the solution studies carried out with about 17 derivatives of the aromatic guest molecular systems, it may be concluded that the changes that occur in the fluorescence intensity seem to be proportional to the number of aromatic rings present and thus proportional to the extent of pi center dot center dot center dot pi interaction present between the naphthalimide moieties and the aromatic portion of the guest molecule. Though the nonaromatic portion of the guest species affects the fluorescence quenching, the trend is still based on the number of rings present in these. Four guest aldehydes are bound to L with K-ass of 2000-6000 M-1 and their minimum detection limit is in the range of 8-35 mu M. The crystal structure of a naphthaldehyde complex, L.2b, exhibits intermolecular arm-to-arm as well as arm-to-naphthaldehyde pi center dot center dot center dot pi interactions. Molecular dynamics studies of L carried out in the presence of aromatic aldehydes under vacuum as well as in acetonitrile resulted in exhibiting interactions observed in the solid state and hence the changes observed in the fluorescence and absorption spectra are attributable for such interactions. Complex formation has also been delineated through ESI MS studies. Thus L is a promising receptor that can recognize PAHs by providing spectral changes proportional to the aromatic conjugation of the guest and the extent of aromatic pi center dot center dot center dot pi interactions present between L and the guest.

Utility of microbes in organic-synthesis - selective transformations of acyclic isoprenoids by aspergillus-niger

Bioconversion of acyclic isoprenoids using a strain of Aspergillus niger results in hydroxylated metabolites with regio- and stereoselectivity. The organism carries out oxidation of the terminal allylic methyl group and the remote double bond in all the compounds tested (I-VII). However, these two activities seem to have preferential structural requirements. When an acyclic isoprenoid with a ketone functionality such as geranylacetone is used as the substrate, the organism also carries out the asymmetric reduction of the keto group. All the metabolites formed have been purified and characterized by conventional spectroscopic methods and quantification has been made by gas chromatographic analyses.

A vector measure for the intelligence of a question-answering (Q-A) system

The problem of quantification of intelligence of humans, and of intelligent systems, has been a challenging and controversial topic. IQ tests have been traditionally used to quantify human intelligence based on results of test designed by psychologists. It is in general very difficult to quantify intelligence. In this paper the authors consider a simple question-answering (Q-A) system and use this to quantify intelligence. The authors quantify intelligence as a vector with three components. The components consist of a measure of knowledge in asking questions, effectiveness of questions asked, and correctness of deduction. The authors formalize these parameters and have conducted experiments on humans to measure these parameters

Baculovirus mediated high-level expression of luciferase in silkworm cells and larvae

Bombyx mori nuclear polyhedrosis virus (BmNPV)-based baculovirus expression system exploits silkworm larvae as an economical alternative to large-scale cell cultures for production of biomolecules. To generate recombinant BmNPV at high efficiency, we have achieved high efficiency transfection of B. mori cells, BmN, through lipofection. Optimal conditions for lipofection were standardized by quantification of the transient expression level of firefly luciferase (luc) reporter gene under control of an immediate early gene promoter of BmNPV Lipofection was 50-fold and 100-fold more efficient than the calcium phosphate method for transfecting BmN and Sf9 cells, respectively. Lipofection enabled us to generate a recombinant BmNPV (vBmluc), harboring luc under control of the strong polyhedrin promoter On infection with vBmluc, luciferase was expressed at very high levels, 170 mu g/10(6) BmN cells or 13 mg/larva. Expression of luciferase in vBmluc-infected larvae was visualized by luminescence emission instantaneously following luciferin injection generating ''glowing silkworms''.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Secondary compression factor

When the variation of secondary compression, with log(10) t is non-linear, the quantification of secondary settlement through the coefficient of secondary compression, C-alpha epsilon, becomes difficult which frequently leads to an underestimate of the settlement, Log(10) delta - log(10) t representation of such true-compression data has the distinct advantage of exhibiting linear secondary compression behaviour over an appreciably larger time span. The slope of the secondary compression portion of the log(10) e - log(10) t curve expressed as Delta(log e)/(log t) and called the 'secondary compression factor', m, proves to be a better alternative to C-alpha epsilon and the prediction of secondary settlement is improved.

Geochemistry of water and ground water in the Nhecolandia, Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil: Variability and associated processes

A distinctive feature of the Nhecolandia, a sub-region of the Pantanal wetland in Brazil, is the presence of both saline and freshwater lakes. Saline lakes used to be attributed to a past and phase during the Pleistocene. However, recent studies have shown that saline and fresh water lakes are linked by a continuous water table, indicating that saline water could come from a contemporary concentration process. This concentration process could also be responsible for the large chemical variability of the waters observed in the area. A regional water sampling has been conducted in surface and sub-surface water and the water table, and the results of the geochemical and statistical analysis are presented. Based on sodium contents, the concentration shows a 1: 4443 ratio. All the samples belong to the same chemical family and evolve in a sodic alkaline manner. Calcite or magnesian calcite precipitates very early in the process of concentration, probably followed by the precipitation of magnesian silicates. The most concentrated solutions remain under-saturated with respect to the sodium carbonate salt, even if this equilibrium is likely reached around the saline lakes. Apparently, significant amounts of sulfate and chloride are lost simultaneously from the solutions, and this cannot be explained solely by evaporative concentration. This could be attributed to the sorption on reduced minerals in a green sub-surface horizon in the "cordilhieira" areas. In the saline lakes, low potassium, phosphate, magnesium, and sulfate are attributed to algal blooms. Under the influence of evaporation, the concentration of solutions and associated chemical precipitations are identified as the main factors responsible for the geochemical variability in this environment (about 92 % of the variance). Therefore, the saline lakes of Nhecolandia have to be managed as landscape units in equilibrium with the present water flows and not inherited from a past and phase. In order to elaborate hydrochemical tracers for a quantitative estimation of water flows, three points have to be investigated more precisely: (1) the quantification of magnesium involved in the Mg-calcite precipitation; (2) the identification of the precise stoichiometry of the Mg-silicate; and (3) the verification of the loss of chloride and sulfate by sorption onto labile iron minerals.

Major depression with ischemic heart disease: Effects of paroxetine and nortriptyline on measures of nonlinearity and chaos of heart rate

Depression is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with preexisting cardiac illness. A decrease in cardiac vagal function as suggested by a decrease in heart rate variability (HRV) or heart period variability has been linked to sudden death in patients with cardiac disease as well as in normal controls. Recent studies have shown decreased vagal function in cardiac patients with depression as well as in depressed patients without cardiac illness. In this study, we compared 20 h awake and sleep heart period nonlinear measures using quantification of nonlinearity and chaos in two groups of patients with major depression and ischemic heart disease (mean age 59-60 years) before and after 6 weeks of treatment with paroxetine or nortriptyline. Patients received paroxetine, 20-30 mg/day or nortriptyline targeted to 190-570 nmol/l for 6 weeks. For HRV analysis, 24 patients were included in the paroxetine treatment study and 20 patients in the nortriptyline study who had at least 20,000 s of awake data. The ages of these groups were 60.4 +/- 10.5 years for paroxetine and 60.8 +/- 13.4 years for nortriptyline. There was a significant decrease in the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) after treatment with nortriptyline but not paroxetine. There were also significant decreases in nonlinearity scores on S-netPR and S-netGS after nortriptyline, which may be due to a decrease in cardiac vagal modulation of HRV. S-netGS and awake LLE were the most significant variables that contributed to the discrimination of postparoxetine and postnortriptyline groups even with the inclusion of time and frequency domain measures. These findings suggest that nortriptyline decreases the measures of chaos probably through its stronger vagolytic effects on cardiac autonomic function compared with paroxetine, which is in agreement with previous clinical and preclinical reports. Nortriptyline was also associated with a significant decrease in nonlinearity scores, which may be due to anticholinergic and/or sympatholytic effects. As depression is associated with a strong risk factor for cardiovascular mortality, one should be careful about using any drug that adversely affects cardiac vagal function. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Modeling reservoir irrigation in uncertain hydrologic environment

In a detailed model for reservoir irrigation taking into account the soil moisture dynamics in the root zone of the crops, the data set for reservoir inflow and rainfall in the command will usually be of sufficient length to enable their variations to be described by probability distributions. However, the potential evapotranspiration of the crop itself depends on the characteristics of the crop and the reference evaporation, the quantification of both being associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a mathematical programming model to determine the annual relative yield of crops and to determine its reliability, for a single reservoir meant for irrigation of multiple crops, incorporating variations in inflow, rainfall in the command area, and crop consumptive use. The inflow to the reservoir and rainfall in the reservoir command area are treated as random variables, whereas potential evapotranspiration is modeled as a fuzzy set. The model's application is illustrated with reference to an existing single-reservoir system in Southern India.

Investigation on the Potential Rise and Currents in Insulated Mast Scheme with Single Tower During Stroke Interception

The insulated mast scheme for the lightning protection system can be found in a few practical designs. Many advantages over conventional protection system are some times envisaged. However, the technical literature on the analysis of such schemes and further quantification of their protection efficacy is rather scarce. As a first step to address this problem, the present work is taken up and the potential rise at the top and ground end currents in insulating mast scheme with single tower is investigated for several tower heights and pertinent values of other parameters. The quantities that are investigated are the potential difference across the insulation and ground end currents for both tower and the ground wires. Quantifications are carried out for the relevant range of stroke current front times. The influence of number of ground wires, their earthing location and to a limited extent, the length of the insulating support have been ascertained. Some relevant discussion on insulation strength is made. These findings are quite novel and aid in quantification of the practical efficacy of the insulated mast scheme. The level of induction to the support tower and possible flashover to the same are not in favour of this scheme.

Modeling of seepage flow through layered solis

A two-dimensional finite difference model, which solves mixed type of Richards' equation, whose non-linearity is dealt with modified Picard's iteration and strongly implicit procedure to solve the resulting equations, is presented. Modeling of seepage flow through heterogeneous soils, which is common in the field is addressed in the present study. The present model can be applied to both unsaturated and saturated soils and can handle very dry initial condition and steep wetting fronts. The model is validated by comparing experimental results reported in the literature. Newness of this two dimensional model is its application on layered soils with transient seepage face development, which has not been reported in the literature. Application of the two dimensional model for studying unconfined drainage due to sudden drop of water table at seepage face in layered soils is demonstrated. In the present work different sizes of rectangular flow domain with different types of layering are chosen. Sensitivity of seepage height due to problem dimension of layered system is studied. The effect of aspect ratio on seepage face development in case of the flow through layered soil media is demonstrated. The model is also applied to random heterogeneous soils in which the randomness of the model parameters is generated using the turning band technique. The results are discussed in terms of phreatic surface and seepage height development and also flux across the seepage face. Such accurate modeling of seepage face development and quantification of flux moving across the seepage face becomes important while modeling transport problems in variably saturated media.

Cytocompatibility property evaluation of gas pressure sintered SiAlON-SiC composites with L929 fibroblast cells and Saos-2 osteoblast-like cells

Although the oxide ceramics have widely been investigated for their biocompatibility, non-oxide ceramics, such as SiAlON and SiC are yet to be explored in detail. Lack of understanding of the biocompatibility restricts the use of these ceramics in clinical trials. It is hence, essential to carry out proper and thorough study to assess cell adhesion, cytocompatibility and cell viability on the non-oxide ceramics for the potential applications. In this perspective, the present research work reports the cytocompatibility of gas pressure sintered SiAlON monolith and SiAlON-SiC composites with varying amount of SIC, using connective tissue cells (L929) and bone cells (Saos-2). The quantification of cell viability using MTT assay reveals the non-cytotoxic response. The cell viability has been found to be cell type dependent. An attempt has been made to discuss the cytocompatibility of the developed composites in the light of SiC content and type of sinter additives. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.