Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Relatively few studies have addressed water management and adaptation measures in the face of changing water balances due to climate change. The current work studies climate change impact on a multipurpose reservoir performance and derives adaptive policies for possible futurescenarios. The method developed in this work is illustrated with a case study of Hirakud reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa, India,which is a multipurpose reservoir serving flood control, irrigation and power generation. Climate change effects on annual hydropower generation and four performance indices (reliability with respect to three reservoir functions, viz. hydropower, irrigation and flood control, resiliency, vulnerability and deficit ratio with respect to hydropower) are studied. Outputs from three general circulation models (GCMs) for three scenarios each are downscaled to monsoon streamflow in the Mahanadi river for two future time slices, 2045-65 and 2075-95. Increased irrigation demands, rule curves dictated by increased need for flood storage and downscaled projections of streamflow from the ensemble of GCMs and scenarios are used for projecting future hydrologic scenarios. It is seen that hydropower generation and reliability with respect to hydropower and irrigation are likely to show a decrease in future in most scenarios, whereas the deficit ratio and vulnerability are likely to increase as a result of climate change if the standard operating policy (SOP) using current rule curves for flood protection is employed. An optimal monthly operating policy is then derived using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) as an adaptive policy for mitigating impacts of climate change on reservoir operation. The objective of this policy is to maximize reliabilities with respect to multiple reservoir functions of hydropower, irrigation and flood control. In variations to this adaptive policy, increasingly more weightage is given to the purpose of maximizing reliability with respect to hydropower for two extreme scenarios. It is seen that by marginally sacrificing reliability with respect to irrigation and flood control, hydropower reliability and generation can be increased for future scenarios. This suggests that reservoir rules for flood control may have to be revised in basins where climate change projects an increasing probability of droughts. However, it is also seen that power generation is unable to be restored to current levels, due in part to the large projected increases in irrigation demand. This suggests that future water balance deficits may limit the success of adaptive policy options. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time,recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through a pseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets of measurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of thePD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time, recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through apseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets ofmeasurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of the PD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Development and transient performance results of a single stage activated carbon - HFC 134a closed cycle adsorption cooling system

A laboratory model of a thermally driven adsorption refrigeration system with activated carbon as the adsorbent and 1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane (HFC 134a) as the refrigerant was developed. The single stage compression system has an ensemble of four adsorbers packed with Maxsorb II specimen of activated carbon that provide a near continuous flow which caters to a cooling load of up to 5W in the 5-18 degrees C region. The objective was to utilise the low grade thermal energy to drive a refrigeration system that can be used to cool some critical electronic components. The laboratory model was tested for it performance at various cooling loads with the heat source temperature from 73 to 93 degrees C. The pressure transients during heating and cooling phases were traced. The cyclic steady state and transient performance data are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change in spectrum of Brownian fluctuations of optically trapped red blood cells due to malarial infection

We study the properties of single red blood cells (RBCs) held in an optical-tweezers trap. We observe a change in the spectrum of Brownian fluctuations between RBCs from normal and malaria-infected samples. The change, caused by infection-induced structural changes in the cell, appears as a statistical increase in the mean (by 25%) and standard deviation (by 200%) of the corner frequency measured over similar to 100 cells. The increase is observed even though the ensemble of cells being measured consists mostly of cells that do not actually host the parasite, but are from an infected pool. This bystander effect appears to vindicate other observations that infected cells can affect the biomechanical properties of uninfected cells. The change is also observed to be independent of the stage of infection and its duration, highlighting its potential for disease detection. (C) 2010 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers. [DOI: 10.1117/1.3427142].

Generating artificial chromosomes with probability control in genetic algorithm for machine scheduling problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm is developed by generating artificial chromosomes with probability control to solve the machine scheduling problems. Generating artificial chromosomes for Genetic Algorithm (ACGA) is closely related to Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Probabilistic Models (EAPM). The artificial chromosomes are generated by a probability model that extracts the gene information from current population. ACGA is considered as a hybrid algorithm because both the conventional genetic operators and a probability model are integrated. The ACGA proposed in this paper, further employs the ``evaporation concept'' applied in Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to solve the permutation flowshop problem. The ``evaporation concept'' is used to reduce the effect of past experience and to explore new alternative solutions. In this paper, we propose three different methods for the probability of evaporation. This probability of evaporation is applied as soon as a job is assigned to a position in the permutation flowshop problem. Experimental results show that our ACGA with the evaporation concept gives better performance than some algorithms in the literature.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Theory of the effects of destruction of localization by inelastic scattering in the resistivity of pure thin potassium wires

Measurements of the electrical resistivity of thin potassium wires at temperatures near 1 K have revealed a minimum in the resistivity as a function of temperature. By proposing that the electrons in these wires have undergone localization, albeit with large localization length, and that inelastic-scattering events destroy the coherence of that state, we can explain both the magnitude and shape of the temperature-dependent resistivity data. Localization of electrons in these wires is to be expected because, due to the high purity of the potassium, the elastic mean free path is comparable to the diameters of the thinnest samples, making the Thouless length lT (or inelastic diffusion length) much larger than the diameter, so that the wire is effectively one dimensional. The inelastic events effectively break the wire into a series of localized segments, whose resistances can be added to obtain the total resistance of the wire. The ensemble-averaged resistance for all possible segmented wires, weighted with a Poisson distribution of inelastic-scattering lengths along the wire, yields a length dependence for the resistance that is proportional to [L3/lin(T)], provided that lin(T)?L, where L is the sample length and lin(T) is some effective temperature-dependent one-dimensional inelastic-scattering length. A more sophisticated approach using a Poisson distribution in inelastic-scattering times, which takes into account the diffusive motion of the electrons along the wire through the Thouless length, yields a length- and temperature-dependent resistivity proportional to (L/lT)4 under appropriate conditions. Inelastic-scattering lifetimes are inferred from the temperature-dependent bulk resistivities (i.e., those of thicker, effectively three-dimensional samples), assuming that a minimum amount of energy must be exchanged for a collision to be effective in destroying the phase coherence of the localized state. If the dominant inelastic mechanism is electron-electron scattering, then our result, given the appropriate choice of the channel number parameter, is consistent with the data. If electron-phason scattering were of comparable importance, then our results would remain consistent. However, the inelastic-scattering lifetime inferred from bulk resistivity data is too short. This is because the electron-phason mechanism dominates in the inelastic-scattering rate, although the two mechanisms may be of comparable importance for the bulk resistivity. Possible reasons why the electron-phason mechanism might be less effective in thin wires than in bulk are discussed.

Interaction of flux tubes with sound waves

The Landau damping of sound waves in a plasma consisting of ensemble of magnetic flux tubes is discussed. It is shown that sound waves cannot be Landau damped in general but under certain restricted conditions on plasma parameters the possibility of absorption of these waves can exist. The possibility of radiative damping of the acoustic waves along the magnetic filaments is also discussed. It appears that the most plausible mechanism of damping of sound waves in a plasma consisting of magnetic filaments can be due to scattering of a sound wave by the filaments.

A Geostatistical Study pf Alumina-Content in Ores of An Indian Iron-Ore Deposit

Mining and blending operations in the high grade iron ore deposit under study are performed to optimize recovery with minimal alumina content while maintaining required levels of other chemical component and a proper mix of ore types. In the present work the regionalisation of alumina in the ores has been studied independently and its effects on global and local recoverable tonnage as well as on alternatives of mining operations have been evaluated. The global tonnage recovery curves for blocks (20m x 20m x 12m) obtained by simulation closely approximated the curves obtained theoretically using a change of support under the discretised gaussian model. Variations in block size up to 80m x 20m x 12m did not affect the recovery as the horizontal dimensions of the blocks are small in relation to the range of the variogram. A comparison of the local tonnage recovery curves obtained through multiple conditional simulations made with that obtained by the method of uniform conditioning of block grades on an estimate of panel 100m x 100m x 12m panel grade reveals comparable results only in panels which have been well conditioned and possesing an ensemble simulation mean close to the ordinary kriged value for the panel. Study of simple alternative sequence of mining on the conditionally simulated deposit shows that concentration of mining operations simultaneously on a single bench enhances the fluctuation in alumina values of ore mined.

Role of molecular reorientation in the vitrification of molecular liquids: A Monte Carlo study of the liquid and glassy states of 2,2-dimethylbutane

The liquid and the glassy phases of 2,2-dimethylbutane have been investigated by isothermal isobaric ensemble Monte Carlo simulation. Thermodynamic Properties and radial distribution functions for both the liquid and the glass have been obtained. The radial distribution functions have been classified into three types based on the accessibility of the group. It has been shown that the structure of the Iiquid and the glass can be understood in terms of the above classification of the radial distribution functions. Molecular reorientation plays an important role in the structural rearrangement accompanying glass formation. As much as 35% of the contribution to the increase in the intermolecular interaction energy on vitrification is due to the reorientation of the neighbouring pairs of molecules. The observed changes in the dimerisation energy and the bonding energy distribution function are consistent with the observed structural changes.

Some new results regarding spikes and a heuristic for spike construction

his paper addresses the problem of minimizing the number of columns with superdiagonal nonzeroes (viz., spiked columns) in a square, nonsingular linear system of equations which is to be solved by Gaussian elimination. The exact focus is on a class of min-spike heuristics in which the rows and columns of the coefficient matrix are first permuted to block lower-triangular form. Subsequently, the number of spiked columns in each irreducible block and their heights above the diagonal are minimized heuristically. We show that ifevery column in an irreducible block has exactly two nonzeroes, i.e., is a doubleton, then there is exactly one spiked column. Further, if there is at least one non-doubleton column, there isalways an optimal permutation of rows and columns under whichnone of the doubleton columns are spiked. An analysis of a few benchmark linear programs suggests that singleton and doubleton columns can abound in practice. Hence, it appears that the results of this paper can be practically useful. In the rest of the paper, we develop a polynomial-time min-spike heuristic based on the above results and on a graph-theoretic interpretation of doubleton columns.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Effect of Alkyl Chain Arrangement on Conformation and Dynamics in a Surfactant Intercalated Layered Double Hydroxide: Spectroscopic Measurements and MD Simulations

The anionic surfactant dodecyl sulfate (DDS) has been intercalated in an Mg-Al layered double hydroxide (LDH). Monolayer and bilayer arrangements of the alkyl chains of the intercalated surfactant can be engineered by tuning the Al/Mg ratio of the LDH. In both arrangements the anionic headgroup of the surfactant is tethered to the LDH sheets, and consequently translational mobility of the chains is absent. The degrees of freedom of the confined alkyl chains are restricted to changes in conformation. The effects of the arrangement of the intercalated surfactant chains on conformational order and dynamics have been,investigated by spectroscopic measurements and molecular dynamics simulations. Infrared, Raman, and C-13 NMR spectroscopies were used to investigate conformation of the alkyl chains in the monolayer and bilayer arrangements and variable contact time cross-polarization magic angle spinning (VCT CPMAS) NMR measurements to probe molecular motion. The alkyl chains in the monolayer arrangement of the intercalated DDS chains showed considerably greater conformational disorder and faster dynamics as compared to chains in the bilayer arrangement, in spite of the fact that the volume available per chain in the monolayer is smaller than that in the bilayer. Atomistic MD simulations of the two arrangements of the intercalated surfactant were carried out using an isothermal-isobaric ensemble. The simulations are able to reproduce the essential results of the experiment-greater conformational disorder and faster dynamics for the alkyl chains in the monolayer arrangement of the intercalated surfactant. The MD simulations show that these results are a consequence of the fact that the nature of conformational disorder in the two arrangements is different. In the monolayer arrangement the alkyl chains can sustain isolated gauche defects, whereas in the bilayer arrangement gauche conformers occur only as part of a kink a gauche(+) trans gauche(-) sequence.