Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry using expert elicitation

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAN) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identification and quantification of these hazards related to chemical industries. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an established technique in hazard identification. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. This paper outlines the estimation of the probability of release of chlorine from storage and filling facility of chlor-alkali industry using FTA. An attempt has also been made to arrive at the probability of chlorine release using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic technique for Indian conditions. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two-dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor involved in expert elicitation. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dipolar cross-correlation effects in the nuclear overhauser experiments of weakly and strongly coupled spins

The effect of dipolar cross correlation in 1H---1H nuclear Overhauser effect experiments is investigated by detailed calculation in an ABX spin system. It is found that in weakly coupled spin systems, the cross-correlation effects are limited to single-quantum transition probabilities and decrease in magnitude as ωτc increases. Strong coupling, however, mixes the states and the cross correlations affect the zero-quantum and double-quantum transition probabilities as well. The effect of cross correlation in steady-state and transient NOE experiments is studied as a function of strong coupling and ωτc. The results for steady-state NOE experiments are calculated analytically and those for transient NOE experiments are calculated numerically. The NOE values for the A and B spins have been calculated by assuming nonselective perturbation of all the transitions of the X spin. A significant effect of cross correlation is found in transient NOE experiments of weakly as well as strongly coupled spins when the multiplets are resolved. Cross correlation manifests itself largely as a multiplet effect in the transient NOE of weakly coupled spins for nonselective perturbation of all X transitions. This effect disappears for a measuring pulse of 90° or when the multiplets are not resolved. For steady-state experiments, the effect of cross correlation is analytically zero for weakly coupled spins and small for strongly coupled spins.

Oxidative copolymerization: microstructure analysis of the terpolymer of styrene, methyl methacrylate, and oxygen

This paper reports the first study of the microstructure of a copolyperoxide by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The copolyperoxides of styrene and methyl methacrylate (MMA) of various compositions have been synthesized. An analysis of the resonance signal of the backbone methylene protons gave the diad sequence probabilities which led to the calculation of the oxidative copolymerization reactivity ratios for styrene and MMA and the microstructural parameters like average chain length of the repeat unit sequences, run number, etc. The results point to the tendency of the SO1 and MO:! units to alternate in the chain. Compared to poly(styrene peroxide), the aromatic C1 seems to be stereosensitive in the terpolymers.

A Cache coherence protocol for MIN-based multiprocessors

In this paper we present a cache coherence protocol for multistage interconnection network (MIN)-based multiprocessors with two distinct private caches: private-blocks caches (PCache) containing blocks private to a process and shared-blocks caches (SCache) containing data accessible by all processes. The architecture is extended by a coherence control bus connecting all shared-block cache controllers. Timing problems due to variable transit delays through the MIN are dealt with by introducing Transient states in the proposed cache coherence protocol. The impact of the coherence protocol on system performance is evaluated through a performance study of three phases. Assuming homogeneity of all nodes, a single-node queuing model (phase 3) is developed to analyze system performance. This model is solved for processor and coherence bus utilizations using the mean value analysis (MVA) technique with shared-blocks steady state probabilities (phase 1) and communication delays (phase 2) as input parameters. The performance of our system is compared to that of a system with an equivalent-sized unified cache and with a multiprocessor implementing a directory-based coherence protocol. System performance measures are verified through simulation.

Bayesian Decentralized Spectrum Sensing in Cognitive Radio Networks

This paper considers the problem of spectrum sensing, i.e., the detection of whether or not a primary user is transmitting data by a cognitive radio. The Bayesian framework is adopted, with the performance measure being the probability of detection error. A decentralized setup, where N sensors use M observations each to arrive at individual decisions that are combined at a fusion center to form the overall decision is considered. The unknown fading channel between the primary sensor and the cognitive radios makes the individual decision rule computationally complex, hence, a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT)-based approach is adopted. Analysis of the probabilities of false alarm and miss detection of the proposed method reveals that the error exponent with respect to M is zero. Also, the fusion of N individual decisions offers a diversity advantage, similar to diversity reception in communication systems, and a tight bound on the error exponent is presented. Through an analysis in the low power regime, the number of observations needed as a function of received power, to achieve a given probability of error is determined. Monte-Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the analysis.

Monte-Carlo estimation of time-dependent statistical characteristics of random dynamical systems

The problem of estimating the time-dependent statistical characteristics of a random dynamical system is studied under two different settings. In the first, the system dynamics is governed by a differential equation parameterized by a random parameter, while in the second, this is governed by a differential equation with an underlying parameter sequence characterized by a continuous time Markov chain. We propose, for the first time in the literature, stochastic approximation algorithms for estimating various time-dependent process characteristics of the system. In particular, we provide efficient estimators for quantities such as the mean, variance and distribution of the process at any given time as well as the joint distribution and the autocorrelation coefficient at different times. A novel aspect of our approach is that we assume that information on the parameter model (i.e., its distribution in the first case and transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the second) is not available in either case. This is unlike most other work in the literature that assumes availability of such information. Also, most of the prior work in the literature is geared towards analyzing the steady-state system behavior of the random dynamical system while our focus is on analyzing the time-dependent statistical characteristics which are in general difficult to obtain. We prove the almost sure convergence of our stochastic approximation scheme in each case to the true value of the quantity being estimated. We provide a general class of strongly consistent estimators for the aforementioned statistical quantities with regular sample average estimators being a specific instance of these. We also present an application of the proposed scheme on a widely used model in population biology. Numerical experiments in this framework show that the time-dependent process characteristics as obtained using our algorithm in each case exhibit excellent agreement with exact results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An integrated model for optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops

An integrated model is developed, based on seasonal inputs of reservoir inflow and rainfall in the irrigated area, to determine the optimal reservoir release policies and irrigation allocations to multiple crops. The model is conceptually made up of two modules, Module 1 is an intraseasonal allocation model to maximize the sum of relative yields of all crops, for a given state of the system, using linear programming (LP). The module takes into account reservoir storage continuity, soil moisture balance, and crop root growth with time. Module 2 is a seasonal allocation model to derive the steady state reservoir operating policy using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). Reservoir storage, seasonal inflow, and seasonal rainfall are the state variables in the SDP. The objective in SDP is to maximize the expected sum of relative yields of all crops in a year. The results of module 1 and the transition probabilities of seasonal inflow and rainfall form the input for module 2. The use of seasonal inputs coupled with the LP-SDP solution strategy in the present formulation facilitates in relaxing the limitations of an earlier study, while affecting additional improvements. The model is applied to an existing reservoir in Karnataka State, India.

Cell versus message level performances in ATM networks

The goal of this paper is to provide some insight into the relations that exist between cell level and message level performance guarantees in the context of ATM networks. Cell level guarantees are typically what the network is capable of providing, while message level guarantees are the ones of interest to users. It is, therefore, important to understand how the two are related, and which factors influence this relation. There are many different performance measures that are of importance, and in this paper we try to touch on the (three) most relevant ones. This includes comparing cell and message loss probabilities, average cell and message delays, and cell and message jitter. Specifically, we show that cell and message loss probabilities can exhibit significant differences, which strongly depend on traffic characteristics such as peak rate and burst size, i.e., for a fixed cell loss probability, the message loss probability can greatly vary when peak rate and burst size change. One reason for this sensitivity, is that message loss depends on what happen to all the cells in a message. For delay and jitter, we also find that peak rate and burst size play a role in determining the relation between cell and message performance. However, this sensitivity is not as acute as with losses since message delay and jitter are typically determined by the performance seen by only one cell, the last cell in a message. In the paper, we provide quantitative examples that illustrate the range of behaviors and identify the impact of different parameters.

The determination of spatial pattern in Dictyostelium discoideum

Free-living amoebae of the cellular slime mould Dictyostelium discoideum aggregate when starved and give rise to a long and thin multicellular structure, the slug. The slug resembles a metazoan embryo, and as with other embryos it is possible to specify a fate map. In the case of Dictyostelium discoideum the map is especially simple: cells in the anterior fifth of the slug die and form a stalk while the majority of those in the posterior differentiate into spores. The genesis of this anterior-posterior distinction is the subject of our review. In particular, we ask: what are the relative roles of individual pre-aggregative predispositions and post-aggregative position in determining cell fate? We review the literature on the subject and conclude that both factors are important. Variations in nutritional status, or in cell cycle phase at starvation, can bias the probability that an amoeba differentiates into a stalk cell or a spore. On the other hand, isolates, or slug fragments, consisting of only prestalk cells or only prespore cells can regulate so as to result in a normal range of both cell types. We identify three levels of control, each being responsible for guiding patterning in normal development: (i) 'coin tossing', whereby a cell autonomously exhibits a preference for developing along either the stalk or the spore pathway with relative probabilities that can be influenced by the environment; (ii) 'chemical kinetics', whereby prestalk and prespore cells originate from undifferentiated amoebae on a probabilistic basis but, having originated, interact (e.g. via positive and negative feedbacks), and the interaction influences the possibility of conversion of one cell type into the other, and (iii) 'positional information', in which the spatial distribution of morphogens in the slug influences the pathway of differentiation. In the case of possibilities (i) and (ii), sorting out of like cell types leads to the final spatial pattern. In the case of possibility (iii), the pattern arises in situ.

AlignHUSH: Alignment of HMMs using structure and hydrophobicity information

Background: Sensitive remote homology detection and accurate alignments especially in the midnight zone of sequence similarity are needed for better function annotation and structural modeling of proteins. An algorithm, AlignHUSH for HMM-HMM alignment has been developed which is capable of recognizing distantly related domain families The method uses structural information, in the form of predicted secondary structure probabilities, and hydrophobicity of amino acids to align HMMs of two sets of aligned sequences. The effect of using adjoining column(s) information has also been investigated and is found to increase the sensitivity of HMM-HMM alignments and remote homology detection. Results: We have assessed the performance of AlignHUSH using known evolutionary relationships available in SCOP. AlignHUSH performs better than the best HMM-HMM alignment methods and is observed to be even more sensitive at higher error rates. Accuracy of the alignments obtained using AlignHUSH has been assessed using the structure-based alignments available in BaliBASE. The alignment length and the alignment quality are found to be appropriate for homology modeling and function annotation. The alignment accuracy is found to be comparable to existing methods for profile-profile alignments. Conclusions: A new method to align HMMs has been developed and is shown to have better sensitivity at error rates of 10% and above when compared to other available programs. The proposed method could effectively aid obtaining clues to functions of proteins of yet unknown function. A web-server incorporating the AlignHUSH method is available at http://crick.mbu.iisc.ernet.in/similar to alignhush/

The effect of host glass on optical absorption and fluorescence of Nd3+ in xNa(2)O-(30-x)K2O-70B(2)O(3) glasses

The effect of host glass composition on the optical absorption and fluorescence spectra of Nd3+ has been studied in mixed alkali borate glasses of the type xNa(2)O-(30-x)K2O-69.5B(2)O(3)-0.5Nd(2)O(3) (X = 5,10,15,20 and 25). Various spectroscopic parameters such as Racah (E-1, E-2 and E-3), spin-orbit (xi(4f)) and configuration interaction (alpha, beta) parameters have been calculated. The Judd-Ofelt intensity parameters (Omega(lambda)) have been calculated and the radiative transition probabilities (A(rad)), radiative lifetimes (tau(r)), branching ratios (beta) and integrated absorption cross sections (Sigma) have been obtained for certain excited states of the Nd3+, ion and are discussed with respect to x. From the fluorescence spectra, the effective fluorescence line widths (Deltalambda(eff)) and stimulated emission cross sections (sigma(p)) have been obtained for the three transitions F-4(3/2) --> I-4(9/2), F-4(3/2) --> I-4(11/2) and F-4(3/2) --> I-4(13/2) of Nd3+. The stimulated emission cross section (sigma(p)) values are found to be in the range (2.0-4.8) x 10(-2)0 cm(2) and they are large enough to indicate that the mixed alkali borate glasses could be potential laser host materials.

Multi-Armed Bandit Mechanisms for Multi-Slot Sponsored Searth Auctions

In pay-per click sponsored search auctions which are currently extensively used by search engines, the auction for a keyword involves a certain number of advertisers (say k) competing for available slots (say m) to display their ads. This auction is typically conducted for a number of rounds (say T). There are click probabilities mu_ij associated with agent-slot pairs. The search engine's goal is to maximize social welfare, for example, the sum of values of the advertisers. The search engine does not know the true value of an advertiser for a click to her ad and also does not know the click probabilities mu_ij s. A key problem for the search engine therefore is to learn these during the T rounds of the auction and also to ensure that the auction mechanism is truthful. Mechanisms for addressing such learning and incentives issues have recently been introduced and would be referred to as multi-armed-bandit (MAB) mechanisms. When m = 1,characterizations for truthful MAB mechanisms are available in the literature and it has been shown that the regret for such mechanisms will be O(T^{2/3}). In this paper, we seek to derive a characterization in the realistic but nontrivial general case when m > 1 and obtain several interesting results.

Task Dependent Boundary Mannequins in Statistical DHM

The primary objective of the paper is to make use of statistical digital human model to better understand the nature of reach probability of points in the taskspace. The concept of task-dependent boundary manikin is introduced to geometrically characterize the extreme individuals in the given population who would accomplish the task. For a given point of interest and task, the map of the acceptable variation in anthropometric parameters is superimposed with the distribution of the same parameters in the given population to identify the extreme individuals. To illustrate the concept, the task space mapping is done for the reach probability of human arms. Unlike the boundary manikins, who are completely defined by the population, the dimensions of these manikins will vary with task, say, a point to be reached, as in the present case. Hence they are referred to here as the task-dependent boundary manikins. Simulations with these manikins would help designers to visualize how differently the extreme individuals would perform the task. Reach probability at the points in a 3D grid in the operational space is computed; for objects overlaid in this grid, approximate probabilities are derived from the grid for rendering them with colors indicating the reach probability. The method may also help in providing a rational basis for selection of personnel for a given task.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

An analytical model for an IEEE~802.11 WLAN using DCF with two types of VoIP calls

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using enhanced distributed channel access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures. The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY)