Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Signatures of Indian ocean Dipole and El Nino-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal

We investigate the impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on sea level variations in the North Indian Ocean during 1957-2008. Using tide-gauge and altimeter data, we show that IOD and ENSO leave characteristic signatures in the sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the Bay of Bengal. During a positive IOD event, negative SLAs are observed during April-December, with the SLAs decreasing continuously to a peak during September-November. During El Nino, negative SLAs are observed twice (April-December and November-July), with a relaxation between the two peaks. SLA signatures during negative IOD and La Nina events are much weaker. We use a linear, continuously stratified model of the Indian Ocean to simulate their sea level patterns of IOD and ENSO events. We then separate solutions into parts that correspond to specific processes: coastal alongshore winds, remote forcing from the equator via reflected Rossby waves, and direct forcing by interior winds within the bay. During pure IOD events, the SLAs are forced both from the equator and by direct wind forcing. During ENSO events, they are primarily equatorially forced, with only a minor contribution from direct wind forcing. Using a lead/lag covariance analysis between the Nino-3.4 SST index and Indian Ocean wind stress, we derive a composite wind field for a typical El Nino event: the resulting solution has two negative SLA peaks. The IOD and ENSO signatures are not evident off the west coast of India.

The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Dynamics of the Indian-Ocean oxygen minimum zones

In the Indian Ocean, mid-depth oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) occur in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The lower part of the Arabian-Sea OMZ (ASOMZ; below 400 m) intensifies northward across the basin; in contrast, its upper part (above 400 m) is located in the central/eastern basin, well east of the most productive regions along the western boundary. The Bay-of-Bengal OMZ (BBOMZ), although strong, is weaker than the ASOMZ. To investigate the processes that maintain the Indian-Ocean OMZs, we obtain a suite of solutions to a coupled biological/physical model. Its physical component is a variable-density, 6 1/2-layer model, in which each layer corresponds to a distinct dynamical regime or water-mass type. Its biological component has six compartments: nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, two size classes of detritus, and oxygen. Because the model grid is non-eddy resolving (0.5 degrees), the biological model also includes a parameterization of enhanced mixing based on the eddy kinetic energy derived from satellite observations. To explore further the impact of local processes on OMZs, we also obtain analytic solutions to a one-dimensional, simplified version of the biological model. Our control run is able to simulate basic features of the oxygen, nutrient, and phytoplankton fields throughout the Indian Ocean. The model OMZs result from a balance, or lack thereof, between a sink of oxygen by remineralization and subsurface oxygen sources due primarily to northward spreading of oxygenated water from the Southern Hemisphere, with a contribution from Persian-Gulf water in the northern Arabian Sea. The northward intensification of the lower ASOMZ results mostly from horizontal mixing since advection is weak in its depth range. The eastward shift of the upper ASOMZ is due primarily to enhanced advection and vertical eddy mixing in the western Arabian Sea, which spread oxygenated waters both horizontally and vertically. Advection carries small detritus from the western boundary into the central/eastern Arabian Sea, where it provides an additional source of remineralization that drives the ASOMZ to suboxic levels. The model BBOMZ is weaker than the ASOMZ because the Bay lacks a remote source of detritus from the western boundary. Although detritus has a prominent annual cycle, the model OMZs do not because there is not enough time for significant remineralization to occur.

Narrowband signal detection techniques in shallow ocean by acoustic vector sensor array

This paper presents the formulation and performance analysis of four techniques for detection of a narrowband acoustic source in a shallow range-independent ocean using an acoustic vector sensor (AVS) array. The array signal vector is not known due to the unknown location of the source. Hence all detectors are based on a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) which involves estimation of the array signal vector. One non-parametric and three parametric (model-based) signal estimators are presented. It is shown that there is a strong correlation between the detector performance and the mean-square signal estimation error. Theoretical expressions for probability of false alarm and probability of detection are derived for all the detectors, and the theoretical predictions are compared with simulation results. It is shown that the detection performance of an AVS array with a certain number of sensors is equal to or slightly better than that of a conventional acoustic pressure sensor array with thrice as many sensors.

The upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure in a high-resolution model

Salinity in the Bay of Bengal is highly heterogeneous, with extremely fresh waters found at the surface in the Northern part of the basin, and saltier waters at subsurface as well as to the south. This paper investigates the seasonal structure of sea surface salinity of the Bay in a regional high-resolution model forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis and various precipitation products. Surface circulation is believed to drive the spreading of northern Bay of Bengal fresh waters to the rest of the Indian Ocean. We first present a series of experiments to infer the sensitivity of modeled circulation to various numerical choices. Surface circulation is found to be sensitive to the horizontal resolution of the model, with the 1/12 degrees version appearing much more realistic than the 1/4 degrees version. The sidewall boundary condition is also drastically influencing the characteristics of the western boundary current simulated. We then investigate the sensitivity of the salinity response to the various precipitation products. We observe that ERA-Interim excess precipitation induces a fresh bias in the surface salinity response. Spaceborne precipitation products are more satisfactory. We then identify the pathways of the northern Bay freshwater mass, based on passive tracers experiments. Our model suggests that over timescales of a few months, vertical exchanges between the upper fresh layer and the underlying saltier layer appear to be the main export pathway for the freshwater. The horizontal circulation within the mixed layer also acts to convey fresh waters out of the Bay at these timescales, but in a lesser quantity compared to the vertical export. Beyond its intrinsic interest for the understanding of Bay of Bengal physics, this study highlights the need for a careful design of any realistic numerical model, in three key aspects: the choice of the resolution of the model, the choice of the sub-grid scale parameterizations, and the choice of the forcing fluxes. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of GODAS Using RAMA Mooring Observations from the Indian Ocean

We present a comparison of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) five-day ocean analyses against in situ daily data from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) moorings at locations 90 degrees E, 12 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 8 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E, 1.5 degrees S in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal during 2002-2008. We find that the GODAS temperature analysis does not adequately capture a prominent signal of Indian Ocean dipole mode of 2006 seen in the mooring data, particularly at 90 degrees E 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E 1.5 degrees S in the eastern India Ocean. The analysis, using simple statistics such as bias and root-mean-square deviation, indicates that standard GODAS temperature has definite biases and significant differences with observations on both subseasonal and seasonal scales. Subsurface salinity has serious deficiencies as well, but this may not be surprising considering the poorly constrained fresh water forcing, and possible model deficiencies in subsurface vertical mixing. GODAS reanalysis needs improvement to make it more useful for study of climate variability and for creating ocean initial conditions for prediction.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Impact of river runoff into the ocean on Indian summer monsoon

Rivers of the world discharge about 36000 km 3 of freshwater into the ocean every year. To investigate the impact of river discharge on climate, we have carried out two 100 year simulations using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3), one including the river runoff into the ocean and the other excluding it. When the river discharge is shut off, global average sea surface temperature (SST) rises by about 0.5 degrees C and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) increases by about 10% of the seasonal total with large increase in the eastern Bay of Bengal and along the west coast of India. In addition, the frequency of occurrence of La Nina-like cooling events in the equatorial Pacific increases and the correlation between ISMR and Pacific SST anomalies become stronger. The teleconnection between the SST anomalies in the Pacific and monsoon is effected via upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient and the North African-Asian Jet axis.

Isotopic disequilibrium in Globigerina bulloides and carbon isotope response to productivity increase in Southern Ocean

Oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides collected from tow samples along a transect from the equatorial Indian ocean to the Southern Ocean (45 degrees E and 80 degrees E and 10 degrees N to 53 degrees S) were analysed and compared with the equilibrium delta O-18 and delta C-13 values of calcite calculated using the temperature and isotopic composition of the water column. The results agree within similar to 0.25% for the region between 10 degrees N and 40 degrees S and 75-200 m water depth which is considered to be the habitat of Globigerina bulloides. Further south (from 40 degrees S to 55 degrees S), however, the measured delta O-18 and delta C-13 values are higher than the expected values by similar to 2% and similar to 1% respectively. These enrichments can be attributed to either a `vital effect' or a higher calcification rate. An interesting pattern of increase in the delta C-13(DIC) value of the surface water with latitude is observed between 35 degrees S and similar to 60 degrees S, with a peak at similar to 42 degrees S. This can be caused by increased organic matter production and associated removal. A simple model accounting for the increase in the delta C-13(DIC) values is proposed which fits well with the observed chlorophyll abundance as a function of latitude.