53 resultados para Population Surveillance


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The solution of a bivariate population balance equation (PBE) for aggregation of particles necessitates a large 2-d domain to be covered. A correspondingly large number of discretized equations for particle populations on pivots (representative sizes for bins) are solved, although at the end only a relatively small number of pivots are found to participate in the evolution process. In the present work, we initiate solution of the governing PBE on a small set of pivots that can represent the initial size distribution. New pivots are added to expand the computational domain in directions in which the evolving size distribution advances. A self-sufficient set of rules is developed to automate the addition of pivots, taken from an underlying X-grid formed by intersection of the lines of constant composition and constant particle mass. In order to test the robustness of the rule-set, simulations carried out with pivotwise expansion of X-grid are compared with those obtained using sufficiently large fixed X-grids for a number of composition independent and composition dependent aggregation kernels and initial conditions. The two techniques lead to identical predictions, with the former requiring only a fraction of the computational effort. The rule-set automatically reduces aggregation of particles of same composition to a 1-d problem. A midway change in the direction of expansion of domain, effected by the addition of particles of different mean composition, is captured correctly by the rule-set. The evolving shape of a computational domain carries with it the signature of the aggregation process, which can be insightful in complex and time dependent aggregation conditions. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The article attempts to present analysis based on the provisional results of the Census 2011. While there is no doubt that the human social organization of the country is undergoing a transition, the nature of growth however is subject to the lens through which this is viewed. Noting the dichotomy of urban and rural definitions, we question the rationality of the ‘urban’ definition and its relevance.

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We present a heterogeneous finite element method for the solution of a high-dimensional population balance equation, which depends both the physical and the internal property coordinates. The proposed scheme tackles the two main difficulties in the finite element solution of population balance equation: (i) spatial discretization with the standard finite elements, when the dimension of the equation is more than three, (ii) spurious oscillations in the solution induced by standard Galerkin approximation due to pure advection in the internal property coordinates. The key idea is to split the high-dimensional population balance equation into two low-dimensional equations, and discretize the low-dimensional equations separately. In the proposed splitting scheme, the shape of the physical domain can be arbitrary, and different discretizations can be applied to the low-dimensional equations. In particular, we discretize the physical and internal spaces with the standard Galerkin and Streamline Upwind Petrov Galerkin (SUPG) finite elements, respectively. The stability and error estimates of the Galerkin/SUPG finite element discretization of the population balance equation are derived. It is shown that a slightly more regularity, i.e. the mixed partial derivatives of the solution has to be bounded, is necessary for the optimal order of convergence. Numerical results are presented to support the analysis.

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Background: India has the third largest HIV-1 epidemic with 2.4 million infected individuals. Molecular epidemiological analysis has identified the predominance of HIV-1 subtype C (HIV-1C). However, the previous reports have been limited by sample size, and uneven geographical distribution. The introduction of HIV-1C in India remains uncertain due to this lack of structured studies. To fill the gap, we characterised the distribution pattern of HIV-1 subtypes in India based on data collection from nationwide clinical cohorts between 2007 and 2011. We also reconstructed the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of the predominant HIV-1C strains. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood samples were collected from 168 HIV-1 seropositive subjects from 7 different states. HIV-1 subtypes were determined using two or three genes, gag, pol, and env using several methods. Bayesian coalescent-based approach was used to reconstruct the time of introduction and population growth patterns of the Indian HIV-1C. For the first time, a high prevalence (10%) of unique recombinant forms (BC and A1C) was observed when two or three genes were used instead of one gene (p<0.01; p = 0.02, respectively). The tMRCA of Indian HIV-1C was estimated using the three viral genes, ranged from 1967 (gag) to 1974 (env). Pol-gene analysis was considered to provide the most reliable estimate 1971, (95% CI: 1965-1976)]. The population growth pattern revealed an initial slow growth phase in the mid-1970s, an exponential phase through the 1980s, and a stationary phase since the early 1990s. Conclusions/Significance: The Indian HIV-1C epidemic originated around 40 years ago from a single or few genetically related African lineages, and since then largely evolved independently. The effective population size in the country has been broadly stable since the 1990s. The evolving viral epidemic, as indicated by the increase of recombinant strains, warrants a need for continued molecular surveillance to guide efficient disease intervention strategies.

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This article is concerned with the evolution of haploid organisms that reproduce asexually. In a seminal piece of work, Eigen and coauthors proposed the quasispecies model in an attempt to understand such an evolutionary process. Their work has impacted antiviral treatment and vaccine design strategies. Yet, predictions of the quasispecies model are at best viewed as a guideline, primarily because it assumes an infinite population size, whereas realistic population sizes can be quite small. In this paper we consider a population genetics-based model aimed at understanding the evolution of such organisms with finite population sizes and present a rigorous study of the convergence and computational issues that arise therein. Our first result is structural and shows that, at any time during the evolution, as the population size tends to infinity, the distribution of genomes predicted by our model converges to that predicted by the quasispecies model. This justifies the continued use of the quasispecies model to derive guidelines for intervention. While the stationary state in the quasispecies model is readily obtained, due to the explosion of the state space in our model, exact computations are prohibitive. Our second set of results are computational in nature and address this issue. We derive conditions on the parameters of evolution under which our stochastic model mixes rapidly. Further, for a class of widely used fitness landscapes we give a fast deterministic algorithm which computes the stationary distribution of our model. These computational tools are expected to serve as a framework for the modeling of strategies for the deployment of mutagenic drugs.

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Chromosomal translocations are characteristic features of many cancers, especially lymphoma and leukemia. However, recent reports suggest that many chromosomal translocations can be found in healthy individuals, although the significance of this observation is still not clear. In this review, we summarize recent studies on chromosomal translocations in healthy individuals carried out in different geographical areas of the world and discuss the relevance of the observation with respect to oncogenesis.

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This work proposes a boosting-based transfer learning approach for head-pose classification from multiple, low-resolution views. Head-pose classification performance is adversely affected when the source (training) and target (test) data arise from different distributions (due to change in face appearance, lighting, etc). Under such conditions, we employ Xferboost, a Logitboost-based transfer learning framework that integrates knowledge from a few labeled target samples with the source model to effectively minimize misclassifications on the target data. Experiments confirm that the Xferboost framework can improve classification performance by up to 6%, when knowledge is transferred between the CLEAR and FBK four-view headpose datasets.

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In this paper, we explore fundamental limits on the number of tests required to identify a given number of ``healthy'' items from a large population containing a small number of ``defective'' items, in a nonadaptive group testing framework. Specifically, we derive mutual information-based upper bounds on the number of tests required to identify the required number of healthy items. Our results show that an impressive reduction in the number of tests is achievable compared to the conventional approach of using classical group testing to first identify the defective items and then pick the required number of healthy items from the complement set. For example, to identify L healthy items out of a population of N items containing K defective items, when the tests are reliable, our results show that O(K(L - 1)/(N - K)) measurements are sufficient. In contrast, the conventional approach requires O(K log(N/K)) measurements. We derive our results in a general sparse signal setup, and hence, they are applicable to other sparse signal-based applications such as compressive sensing also.

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High elevation montane areas are called ``sky islands'' when they occur as a series of high mountains separated by lowland valleys. Different climatic conditions at high elevations makes sky islands a specialized type of habitat, rendering them naturally fragmented compared to more continuous habitat at lower elevations. Species in sky islands face unsuitable climate in the intervening valleys when moving from one montane area to another. The high elevation shola-grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India form one such sky island complex. The fragmented patches make this area ideal to study the effect of the spatial orientation of suitable habitat patches on population genetic structure of species found in these areas. Past studies have suggested that sky islands tend to have genetically structured populations, possibly due to reduced gene flow between montane areas. To test this hypothesis, we adopted the comparative approach. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we compared population genetic structures of two closely related, similar sized butterfly species: Heteropsis oculus, a high elevation shola-grassland specialist restricted to the southern Western Ghats, and Mycalesis patnia, found more continuously distributed in lower elevations. In all analyses, as per expectation the sky island specialist H. oculus exhibited a greater degree of population genetic structure than M. patnia, implying a difference in geneflow. This difference in geneflow in turn appears to be due to the natural fragmentation of the sky island complexes. Detailed analysis of a subset of H. oculus samples from one sky island complex (the Anamalais) showed a surprising genetic break. A possible reason for this break could be unsuitable conditions of higher temperature and lower rainfall in the intervening valley region. Thus, sky island species are not only restricted by lack of habitat continuity between montane areas, but also by the nature of the intervening habitat.

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Spatial information at the landscape scale is extremely important for conservation planning, especially in the case of long-ranging vertebrates. The biodiversity-rich Anamalai hill ranges in the Western Ghats of southern India hold a viable population for the long-term conservation of the Asian elephant. Through rapid but extensive field surveys we mapped elephant habitat, corridors, vegetation and land-use patterns, estimated the elephant population density and structure, and assessed elephant-human conflict across this landscape. GIS and remote sensing analyses indicate that elephants are distributed among three blocks over a total area of about 4600 km(2). Approximately 92% remains contiguous because of four corridors; however, under 4000 km2 of this area may be effectively used by elephants. Nine landscape elements were identified, including five natural vegetation types, of which tropical moist deciduous forest is dominant. Population density assessed through the dung count method using line transects covering 275 km of walk across the effective elephant habitat of the landscape yielded a mean density of 1.1 (95% Cl = 0.99-1.2) elephant/km(2). Population structure from direct sighting of elephants showed that adult male elephants constitute just 2.9% and adult females 42.3% of the population with the rest being subadults (27.4%), juveniles (16%) and calves (11.4%). Sex ratios show an increasing skew toward females from juvenile (1:1.8) to sub-adult (1:2.4) and adult (1:14.7) indicating higher mortality of sub-adult and adult males that is most likely due to historical poaching for ivory. A rapid questionnaire survey and secondary data on elephant-human conflict from forest department records reveals that villages in and around the forest divisions on the eastern side of landscape experience higher levels of elephant-human conflict than those on the western side; this seems to relate to a greater degree of habitat fragmentation and percentage farmers cultivating annual crops in the east. We provide several recommendations that could help maintain population viability and reduce elephant-human conflict of the Anamalai elephant landscape. (C) 2013 Deutsche Gesellschaft far Saugetierkunde. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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South Asian populations harbor a high degree of genetic diversity, due in part to demographic history. Two studies on genome-wide variation in Indian populations have shown that most Indian populations show varying degrees of admixture between ancestral north Indian and ancestral south Indian components. As a result of this structure, genetic variation in India appears to follow a geographic cline. Similarly, Indian populations seem to show detectable differences in diabetes and obesity prevalence between different geographic regions of the country. We tested the hypothesis that genetic variation at diabetes-and obesity-associated loci may be potentially related to different genetic ancestries. We genotyped 2977 individuals from 61 populations across India for 18 SNPs in genes implicated in T2D and obesity. We examined patterns of variation in allele frequency across different geographical gradients and considered state of origin and language affiliation. Our results show that most of the 18 SNPs show no significant correlation with latitude, the geographic cline reported in previous studies, or by language family. Exceptions include KCNQ1 with latitude and THADA and JAK1 with language, which suggests that genetic variation at previously ascertained diabetes-associated loci may only partly mirror geographic patterns of genome-wide diversity in Indian populations.

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This paper discusses a novel high-speed approach for human action recognition in H. 264/AVC compressed domain. The proposed algorithm utilizes cues from quantization parameters and motion vectors extracted from the compressed video sequence for feature extraction and further classification using Support Vector Machines (SVM). The ultimate goal of our work is to portray a much faster algorithm than pixel domain counterparts, with comparable accuracy, utilizing only the sparse information from compressed video. Partial decoding rules out the complexity of full decoding, and minimizes computational load and memory usage, which can effect in reduced hardware utilization and fast recognition results. The proposed approach can handle illumination changes, scale, and appearance variations, and is robust in outdoor as well as indoor testing scenarios. We have tested our method on two benchmark action datasets and achieved more than 85% accuracy. The proposed algorithm classifies actions with speed (>2000 fps) approximately 100 times more than existing state-of-the-art pixel-domain algorithms.

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Head pose classification from surveillance images acquired with distant, large field-of-view cameras is difficult as faces are captured at low-resolution and have a blurred appearance. Domain adaptation approaches are useful for transferring knowledge from the training (source) to the test (target) data when they have different attributes, minimizing target data labeling efforts in the process. This paper examines the use of transfer learning for efficient multi-view head pose classification with minimal target training data under three challenging situations: (i) where the range of head poses in the source and target images is different, (ii) where source images capture a stationary person while target images capture a moving person whose facial appearance varies under motion due to changing perspective, scale and (iii) a combination of (i) and (ii). On the whole, the presented methods represent novel transfer learning solutions employed in the context of multi-view head pose classification. We demonstrate that the proposed solutions considerably outperform the state-of-the-art through extensive experimental validation. Finally, the DPOSE dataset compiled for benchmarking head pose classification performance with moving persons, and to aid behavioral understanding applications is presented in this work.

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Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.