Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-Abelian gauge redundancy and entropic ambiguities

The von Neumann entropy of a generic quantum state is not unique unless the state can be uniquely decomposed as a sum of extremal or pure states. Therefore one reaches the remarkable possibility that there may be many entropies for a given state. We show that this happens if the GNS representation (of the algebra of observables in some quantum state) is reducible, and some representations in the decomposition occur with non-trivial degeneracy. This ambiguity in entropy, which can occur at zero temperature, can often be traced to a gauge symmetry emergent from the non-trivial topological character of the configuration space of the underlying system. We also establish the analogue of an H-theorem for this entropy by showing that its evolution is Markovian, determined by a stochastic matrix. After demonstrating this entropy ambiguity for the simple example of the algebra of 2 x 2 matrices, we argue that the degeneracies in the GNS representation can be interpreted as an emergent broken gauge symmetry, and play an important role in the analysis of emergent entropy due to non-Abelian anomalies. We work out the simplest situation with such non-Abelian symmetry, that of an ethylene molecule.