Retention Time Variability as a Mechanism for Animal Mediated Long-Distance Dispersal

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) events, although rare for most plant species, can strongly influence population and community dynamics. Animals function as a key biotic vector of seeds and thus, a mechanistic and quantitative understanding of how individual animal behaviors scale to dispersal patterns at different spatial scales is a question of critical importance from both basic and applied perspectives. Using a diffusion-theory based analytical approach for a wide range of animal movement and seed transportation patterns, we show that the scale (a measure of local dispersal) of the seed dispersal kernel increases with the organisms' rate of movement and mean seed retention time. We reveal that variations in seed retention time is a key determinant of various measures of LDD such as kurtosis (or shape) of the kernel, thinkness of tails and the absolute number of seeds falling beyond a threshold distance. Using empirical data sets of frugivores, we illustrate the importance of variability in retention times for predicting the key disperser species that influence LDD. Our study makes testable predictions linking animal movement behaviors and gut retention times to dispersal patterns and, more generally, highlights the potential importance of animal behavioral variability for the LDD of seeds.

Joint data detection and dominant singular mode estimation in time varying reciprocal MIMO systems

This paper proposes an algorithm for joint data detection and tracking of the dominant singular mode of a time varying channel at the transmitter and receiver of a time division duplex multiple input multiple output beamforming system. The method proposed is a modified expectation maximization algorithm which utilizes an initial estimate to track the dominant modes of the channel at the transmitter and the receiver blindly; and simultaneously detects the un known data. Furthermore, the estimates are constrained to be within a confidence interval of the previous estimate in order to improve the tracking performance and mitigate the effect of error propagation. Monte-Carlo simulation results of the symbol error rate and the mean square inner product between the estimated and the true singular vector are plotted to show the performance benefits offered by the proposed method compared to existing techniques.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Fiber Bragg Grating Sensor Instrumentation for Parking Space Occupancy Management

This work aims at providing an effective parking management system by reducing the drivers' searching time for vacant car-parking space, in turn improving the traffic flow in the car park areas. This is achieved by the use of Fiber Bragg Grating Sensor (FBG) sensor instrumentation in vehicle parking management system. Present work involves embedding an array of FBG sensors underground in the parking space, then determining the strain changes on the FBG sensor due to load applied by the vehicle parked in the parking space, occupancy of the parking space is determined. To validate the FBG sensor parking management system, three most common cases have been considered. This closed loop FBG parking management system can give real-time feed-back to space-guidance display board helping the driver in maneuvering the vehicle to the appropriate parking space. The proposed technique offers optimized usage of parking space for the various segments of cars and also facilitates in a conjoined automated billing system, as compared to conventional method of parking systems.

Delay optimal scheduling of a discrete-time batch service queue for point-to-point channel code rate selection

We consider the problem of characterizing the minimum average delay, or equivalently the minimum average queue length, of message symbols randomly arriving to the transmitter queue of a point-to-point link which dynamically selects a (n, k) block code from a given collection. The system is modeled by a discrete time queue with an IID batch arrival process and batch service. We obtain a lower bound on the minimum average queue length, which is the optimal value for a linear program, using only the mean (λ) and variance (σ2) of the batch arrivals. For a finite collection of (n, k) codes the minimum achievable average queue length is shown to be Θ(1/ε) as ε ↓ 0 where ε is the difference between the maximum code rate and λ. We obtain a sufficient condition for code rate selection policies to achieve this optimal growth rate. A simple family of policies that use only one block code each as well as two other heuristic policies are shown to be weakly optimal in the sense of achieving the 1/ε growth rate. An appropriate selection from the family of policies that use only one block code each is also shown to achieve the optimal coefficient σ2/2 of the 1/ε growth rate. We compare the performance of the heuristic policies with the minimum achievable average queue length and the lower bound numerically. For a countable collection of (n, k) codes, the optimal average queue length is shown to be Ω(1/ε). We illustrate the selectivity among policies of the growth rate optimality criterion for both finite and countable collections of (n, k) block codes.

Role of orography in modulating space-time scales of convection over South Asia

Propagation of convective systems in the meridional direction during boreal summer is responsible for active and break phases of monsoon over south Asia. This region is unique in the world in its characteristics of monsoon variability and is in close proximity of mountains like the Himalayas. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, we try to understand the role of orography in determining spatial and temporal scales of these convective systems. Absence of orography (noGlOrog) decreased the simulated seasonal mean precipitation over India by 23 % due to delay in onset by about a month vis-a-vis the full-mountain case. In noGlOrog, poleward propagations were absent during the delayed period prior to onset. Post-onset, both simulations had similar patterns of poleward propagations. The spatial and temporal scales of propagating clouds bands were determined using wavelet analysis. These scales were found to be different in full-mountain and no-mountain experiments in June-July. However, after the onset of monsoon in noGlOrog, these scales become similar to that with orography. Simulations with two different sets of convection schemes confirmed this result. Further analysis shows that the absence (presence) of meridional propagations during early (late) phase of summer monsoon in noGlOrog was associated with weaker (stronger) vertical shear of zonal wind over south Asia. Our study shows that orography plays a major role in determining the time of onset over the Indian region. However, after onset, basic characteristics of propagating convective systems and therefore the monthly precipitation over India, are less sensitive to the presence of orography and are modulated by moist convective processes.

MULTI-PITCH TRACKING USING GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL WITH TIME VARYING PARAMETERS AND GRATING COMPRESSION TRANSFORM

Grating Compression Transform (GCT) is a two-dimensional analysis of speech signal which has been shown to be effective in multi-pitch tracking in speech mixtures. Multi-pitch tracking methods using GCT apply Kalman filter framework to obtain pitch tracks which requires training of the filter parameters using true pitch tracks. We propose an unsupervised method for obtaining multiple pitch tracks. In the proposed method, multiple pitch tracks are modeled using time-varying means of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), referred to as TVGMM. The TVGMM parameters are estimated using multiple pitch values at each frame in a given utterance obtained from different patches of the spectrogram using GCT. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on all voiced speech mixtures as well as random speech mixtures having well separated and close pitch tracks. TVGMM achieves multi-pitch tracking with 51% and 53% multi-pitch estimates having error <= 20% for random mixtures and all-voiced mixtures respectively. TVGMM also results in lower root mean squared error in pitch track estimation compared to that by Kalman filtering.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Identifying regions for conservation of sloth bears through occupancy modelling in north-eastern Karnataka, India

In the absence of information on species in decline with contracting ranges, management should emphasize remaining populations and protection of their habitats. Threatened by anthropogenic pressure including habitat degradation and loss, sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in India have become limited in range, habitat, and population size. We identified ecological and anthropogenic determinants of occurrence within an occupancy framework to evaluate habitat suitability of non-protected regions (with sloth bears) in northeastern Karnataka, India. We employed a systematic sampling methodology to yield presence absence data to examine a priori hypotheses of determinants that affected occupancy. These covariates were broadly classified as habitat or anthropogenic factors. Mean number of termite mounds and trees positively influenced sloth bear occupancy, and grazing pressure expounded by mean number of livestock dung affected it negatively. Also, mean percentage of shrub coverage had no impact on bear inhabitance. The best fitting model further predicted habitats in Bukkasagara, Agoli, and Benakal reserved forests to have 38%, 75%, and 88%, respectively, of their sampled grid cells with high occupancies (>0.70) albeit little or no legal protection. We recommend a conservation strategy that includes protection of vegetation stand-structure, maintenance of soil moisture, and enrichment of habitat for the long-term welfare of this species.

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Real-Time Stress Measurements in Germanium Thin Film Electrodes during Electrochemical Lithiation/Delithiation Cycling

An in situ study of stress evolution and mechanical behavior of germanium as a lithium-ion battery electrode material is presented. Thin films of germanium are cycled in a half-cell configuration with lithium metal foil as counter/reference electrode, with 1M LiPF6 in ethylene carbonate, diethyl carbonate, dimethyl carbonate solution (1:1:1, wt%) as electrolyte. Real-time stress evolution in the germanium thin-film electrodes during electrochemical lithiation/delithiation is measured by monitoring the substrate curvature using the multi-beam optical sensing method. Upon lithiation a-Ge undergoes extensive plastic deformation, with a peak compressive stress reaching as high as -0.76 +/- 0.05 GPa (mean +/- standard deviation). The compressive stress decreases with lithium concentration reaching a value of approximately -0.3 GPa at the end of lithiation. Upon delithiation the stress quickly became tensile and follows a trend that mirrors the behavior on compressive side; the average peak tensile stress of the lithiated Ge samples was approximately 0.83 GPa. The peak tensile stress data along with the SEM analysis was used to estimate a lower bound fracture resistance of lithiated Ge, which is approximately 5.3 J/m(2). It was also observed that the lithiated Ge is rate sensitive, i.e., stress depends on how fast or slow the charging is carried out. (C) The Author(s) 2015. Published by ECS. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (CC BY, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse of the work in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. All rights reserved.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.