Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

System Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavements

The uncertainty in material properties and traffic characterization in the design of flexible pavements has led to significant efforts in recent years to incorporate reliability methods and probabilistic design procedures for the design, rehabilitation, and maintenance of pavements. In the mechanistic-empirical (ME) design of pavements, despite the fact that there are multiple failure modes, the design criteria applied in the majority of analytical pavement design methods guard only against fatigue cracking and subgrade rutting, which are usually considered as independent failure events. This study carries out the reliability analysis for a flexible pavement section for these failure criteria based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the second-order reliability method (SORM) techniques and the crude Monte Carlo simulation. Through a sensitivity analysis, the most critical parameter affecting the design reliability for both fatigue and rutting failure criteria was identified as the surface layer thickness. However, reliability analysis in pavement design is most useful if it can be efficiently and accurately applied to components of pavement design and the combination of these components in an overall system analysis. The study shows that for the pavement section considered, there is a high degree of dependence between the two failure modes, and demonstrates that the probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures can be almost as high as the probability of component failures. Thus, the need to consider the system reliability in the pavement analysis is highlighted, and the study indicates that the improvement of pavement performance should be tackled in the light of reducing this undesirable event of simultaneous failure and not merely the consideration of the more critical failure mode. Furthermore, this probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures is seen to increase considerably with small increments in the mean traffic loads, which also results in wider system reliability bounds. The study also advocates the use of narrow bounds to the probability of failure, which provides a better estimate of the probability of failure, as validated from the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Influence of Spatial Variation of Hydraulic Conductivity of Municipal Solid Waste on Performance of Bioreactor Landfill

The current study analyzes the leachate distribution in the Orchard Hills Landfill, Davis Junction, Illinois, using a two-phase flow model to assess the influence of variability in hydraulic conductivity on the effectiveness of the existing leachate recirculation system and its operations through reliability analysis. Numerical modeling, using finite-difference code, is performed with due consideration to the spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity of the municipal solid waste (MSW). The inhomogeneous and anisotropic waste condition is assumed because it is a more realistic representation of the MSW. For the reliability analysis, the landfill is divided into 10 MSW layers with different mean values of vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivities (decreasing from top to bottom), and the parametric study is performed by taking the coefficients of variation (COVs) as 50, 100, 150, and 200%. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain statistical information (mean and COV) of output parameters of the (1) wetted area of the MSW, (2) maximum induced pore pressure, and (3) leachate outflow. The results of the reliability analysis are used to determine the influence of hydraulic conductivity on the effectiveness of the leachate recirculation and are discussed in the light of a deterministic approach. The study is useful in understanding the efficiency of the leachate recirculation system. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Seismic Bearing Capacity of Foundations on Cohesionless Slopes

By applying the lower bound theorem of limit analysis in conjunction with finite elements and nonlinear optimization, the bearing capacity factor N has been computed for a rough strip footing by incorporating pseudostatic horizontal seismic body forces. As compared with different existing approaches, the present analysis is more rigorous, because it does not require an assumption of either the failure mechanism or the variation of the ratio of the shear to the normal stress along the footing-soil interface. The magnitude of N decreases considerably with an increase in the horizontal seismic acceleration coefficient (kh). With an increase in kh, a continuous spread in the extent of the plastic zone toward the direction of the horizontal seismic body force is noted. The results obtained from this paper have been found to compare well with the solutions reported in the literature. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Bearing Capacity of Foundations with Inclined Groundwater Seepage

The ultimate bearing capacity of strip foundations in the presence of inclined groundwater flow, considering both upward and downward flow directions, has been determined by using the lower bound finite-element limit analysis. A numerical solution has been generated for both smooth and rough footings placed on frictional soils. A correction factor (f gamma), which needs to be multiplied with the N gamma-term, has been computed to account for groundwater seepage. The variation of f gamma has been obtained as a function of the hydraulic gradient (i) for various inclinations of groundwater flow. For a given magnitude of i, there exists a certain critical inclination of the flow for which the value of f gamma is minimized. With an upward flow, for all flow inclinations, the magnitude of f gamma always reduces with an increase in the value of i. An example has also been provided to illustrate the application of the obtained results when designing foundations in the presence of groundwater seepage.

Damping of Sands for Varying Saturation

A series of resonant column tests have been performed in the torsional mode of vibration to assess the effect of saturation, starting from the near dry state to the fully saturated state, on the damping ratio of sands corresponding to the threshold strain level. Tests were carried out on three different gradations of sand for various combinations of relative density and effective confining pressure. For fine sands, a certain optimum degree of saturation exists at which the damping ratio minimizes; it is known that a decrease in Sr from a fully saturated state leads to a continuous increase in the matric suction. With an increase in the relative density, the optimum degree of saturation for fine sand increases marginally from 1.38 to 1.49%, but does not show any dependency on the effective confining pressure. In contrast, the minimum values of the damping ratio for medium and coarse sands are found to always correspond to the near dry state. The damping ratio decreases continuously with increases in relative density and effective confining pressure. The threshold strain level has been found to decrease continuously with increases in relative density and effective confining pressure. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Upper bound solution for pullout capacity of vertical anchors in sand using finite elements and limit analysis

The horizontal pullout capacity of vertical anchors embedded in sand has been determined by using an upper bound theorem of the limit analysis in combination with finite elements. The numerical results are presented in nondimensional form to determine the pullout resistance for various combinations of embedment ratio of the anchor (H/B), internal friction angle (ϕ) of sand, and the anchor-soil interface friction angle (δ). The pullout resistance increases with increases in the values of embedment ratio, friction angle of sand and anchor-soil interface friction angle. As compared to earlier reported solutions in literature, the present solution provides a better upper bound on the ultimate collapse load.

Modeling Equitable Distribution of Water: Dynamic Inversion-Based Controller Approach

It is a well-known fact that most of the developing countries have intermittent water supply and the quantity of water supplied from the source is also not distributed equitably among the consumers. Aged pipelines, pump failures, and improper management of water resources are some of the main reasons for it. This study presents the application of a nonlinear control technique to overcome this problem in different zones in the city of Bangalore. The water is pumped to the city from a large distance of approximately 100km over a very high elevation of approximately 400m. The city has large undulating terrain among different zones, which leads to unequal distribution of water. The Bangalore, inflow water-distribution system (WDS) has been modeled. A dynamic inversion (DI) nonlinear controller with proportional integral derivative (PID) features (DI-PID) is used for valve throttling to achieve the target flows to different zones of the city. This novel approach of equitable water distribution using DI-PID controllers that can be used as a decision support system is discussed in this paper.

Synthesis and Characterization of Fly Ash Geopolymer Sand

Geopolymers are an alternative binder to portland cement in the manufacture of mortars and concrete, as its three-dimensional aluminosilicate network imparts excellent mechanical properties. Use of geopolymers in place of ordinary portland cement is favored owing to the possible energy and carbon dioxide savings. River sand is another construction industry material that needs development of a sustainable alternate in India. Geopolymerization of fly ash amorphous silica mixtures is employed to produce fine aggregates as a possible replacement to river sand. Geopolymerization of fly ash amorphous silica mixtures in 10M NaOH solution at 100 degrees C for 7days produced fine aggregates termed fly ash geopolymer sand (FAPS)] that had comparable grain size distribution, specific gravity, and improved frictional resistance with river sand. The FAPS particles exhibited more alkaline pH (12.5) and higher total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration (TDS=747 mg/L) in comparison to the river sand specimen (pH=7.9 and TDS=32.5 mg/L). However, when used as fine aggregate in mortar, FAPS-mortar specimens develop similar pH, lower TDS, similar compressive strength, and modulus in relation to river sand-mortar specimens. The experimental results suggest that FAPS particles have the potential to replace river sand in the manufacture of mortar and concrete.

Vertical Uplift Resistance of Two Interfering Horizontal Anchors in Clay

The vertical uplift resistance of two interfering rigid strip plate anchors embedded horizontally at the same level in clay has been examined. The lower and upper bound theorems of the limit analysis in combination with finite-elements and linear optimization have been employed to compute the failure load in a bound form. The analysis is meant for an undrained condition and it incorporates the increase of cohesion with depth. For different clear spacing (S) between the anchors, the magnitude of the efficiency factor (eta c gamma) resulting from the combined components of soil cohesion (c) and soil unit weight (gamma), has been computed for different values of embedment ratio (H/B), the rate of linear increase of cohesion with depth (m) and normalized unit weight (gamma H/c). The magnitude of eta c gamma has been found to reduce continuously with a decrease in the spacing between the anchors, and the uplift resistance becomes minimum for S/B=0. It has been noted that the critical spacing between the anchors required to eliminate the interference effect increases continuously with (1) an increase in H/B, and (2) a decrease in m.

Solving Axisymmetric Stability Problems by Using Upper Bound Finite Elements, Limit Analysis, and Linear Optimization

A numerical formulation has been proposed for solving an axisymmetric stability problem in geomechanics with upper bound limit analysis, finite elements, and linear optimization. The Drucker-Prager yield criterion is linearized by simulating a sphere with a circumscribed truncated icosahedron. The analysis considers only the velocities and plastic multiplier rates, not the stresses, as the basic unknowns. The formulation is simple to implement, and it has been employed for finding the collapse loads of a circular footing placed over the surface of a cohesive-frictional material. The formulation can be used to solve any general axisymmetric geomechanics stability problem.

Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Laboratory Studies on Stabilization of an Expansive Soil by Lime Precipitation Technique

Lime stabilization prevails to be the most widely adopted in situ stabilization method for controlling the swell-shrink potentials of expansive soils despite construction difficulties and its ineffectiveness in certain conditions. In addition to the in situ stabilization methods presently practiced, it is theoretically possible to facilitate in situ precipitation of lime in soil by successive permeation of calcium chloride (CaCl2 ) and sodium hydroxide (NaOH) solutions into the expansive soil. In this laboratory investigation, an attempt is made to study the precipitation of lime in soil by successive mixing of CaCl2 and NaOH solutions with the expansive soil in two different sequences.Experimental results indicated that in situ precipitation of lime in soil by sequential mixing of CaCl2 and NaOH solutions with expansive soil developed strong lime-modification and soil-lime pozzolanic reactions. The lime-modification reactions together with the poorly de- veloped cementation products controlled the swelling potential, reduced the plasticity index, and increased the unconfined compressive strength of the expansive clay cured for 24 h. Comparatively, both lime-modification reactions and well-developed crystalline cementation products (formed by lime-soil pozzolanic reactions) contributed to the marked increase in the unconfined compressive strength of the ex-pansive soil that was cured for 7–21 days. Results also show that the sequential mixing of expansive soil with CaCl2 solution followed by NaOH solution is more effective than mixing expansive soil with NaOH solution followed by CaCl2 solution. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)MT .1943-5533.0000483. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Activation of Fly Ash–Lime Reactions: Kinetic Approach

Lime–fly ash reactions play a key role in improving the mechanical strength and tailoring the permeability characteristics of compacted fly ash. Activation of fly ash–lime pozzolanic reactions should accelerate the rate of strength development and possibly mobilize higher compressive strengths, facilitating improved engineering performance of fly ash amended materials. This paper makes an assessment of activation of lime–fly ash reactions by curing compacted fly ash–lime specimens at ambient (25°C) and at elevated temperature (80°C). The kinetics of fly ash–lime reactions are examined by monitoring the reacted lime as a function of curing period and temperature. The influence of variations in fly ash/lime content and dry density on the compressive strength developed by specimens at both temperatures is evaluated. The thermodynamic parameters for the fly ash–lime reactions have also been examined. Experimental results showed that curing at 80°C for 24 h accelerated fly ash–lime reactions such that it caused the steam cured (SC) specimens to evelop 1.21–2.44 fold larger strengths than room-temperature cured (RTC) specimens cured at 25°C for 28 days. Analysis of thermodynamic parameters indicated that the fly ash–lime reactions are thermodynamically favored at fly ash contents of 50–70% and lime additions of 16–20%, and the reactions are endothermic in nature. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)MT.1943-5533.0000482. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.