Modelling the impact of extensive irrigation on the groundwater resources

Drastic groundwater resource depletion due to excessive extraction for irrigation is a major concern in many parts of India. In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the groundwater scenario of the catchment using ArcSWAT. Due to the restriction on the maximum initial storage, the deep aquifer component in ArcSWAT was found to be insufficient to represent the excessive groundwater depletion scenario. Hence, a separate water balance model was used for simulating the deep aquifer water table. This approach is demonstrated through a case study for the Malaprabha catchment in India. Multi-site rainfall data was used to represent the spatial variation in the catchment climatology. Model parameters were calibrated using observed monthly stream flow data. Groundwater table simulation was validated using the qualitative information available from the field. The stream flow was found to be well simulated in the model. The simulated groundwater table fluctuation is also matching reasonably well with the field observations. From the model simulations, deep aquifer water table fluctuation was found very severe in the semi-arid lower parts of the catchment, with some areas showing around 60m depletion over a period of eight years. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Minimizing total weighted tardiness on heterogeneous batch processors with incompatible job families

In this paper, we address a scheduling problem for minimizing total weighted tardiness. The background for the paper is derived from the automobile gear manufacturing process. We consider the bottleneck operation of heat treatment stage of gear manufacturing. Real-life scenarios like unequal release times, incompatible job families, nonidentical job sizes, heterogeneous batch processors, and allowance for job splitting have been considered. We have developed a mathematical model which takes into account dynamic starting conditions. The problem considered in this study is NP-hard in nature, and hence heuristic algorithms have been proposed to address it. For real-life large-size problems, the performance of the proposed heuristic algorithms is evaluated using the method of estimated optimal solution available in literature. Extensive computational analyses reveal that the proposed heuristic algorithms are capable of consistently obtaining near-optimal statistically estimated solutions in very reasonable computational time.

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 +/- 1 Gta(-1), which decreases about sixfold to -35 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face `eventual disappearance' by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.

Elastic Resources Framework in IaaS, preserving performance SLAs

Elasticity in cloud systems provides the flexibility to acquire and relinquish computing resources on demand. However, in current virtualized systems resource allocation is mostly static. Resources are allocated during VM instantiation and any change in workload leading to significant increase or decrease in resources is handled by VM migration. Hence, cloud users tend to characterize their workloads at a coarse grained level which potentially leads to under-utilized VM resources or under performing application. A more flexible and adaptive resource allocation mechanism would benefit variable workloads, such as those characterized by web servers. In this paper, we present an elastic resources framework for IaaS cloud layer that addresses this need. The framework provisions for application workload forecasting engine, that predicts at run-time the expected demand, which is input to the resource manager to modulate resource allocation based on the predicted demand. Based on the prediction errors, resources can be over-allocated or under-allocated as compared to the actual demand made by the application. Over-allocation leads to unused resources and under allocation could cause under performance. To strike a good trade-off between over-allocation and under-performance we derive an excess cost model. In this model excess resources allocated are captured as over-allocation cost and under-allocation is captured as a penalty cost for violating application service level agreement (SLA). Confidence interval for predicted workload is used to minimize this excess cost with minimal effect on SLA violations. An example case-study for an academic institute web server workload is presented. Using the confidence interval to minimize excess cost, we achieve significant reduction in resource allocation requirement while restricting application SLA violations to below 2-3%.

Generalized Model Predictive Static Programming and Angle-Constrained Guidance of Air-to-Ground Missiles

A new generalized model predictive static programming technique is presented for rapidly solving a class of finite-horizon nonlinear optimal control problems with hard terminal constraints. Two key features for its high computational efficiency include one-time backward integration of a small-dimensional weighting matrix dynamics, followed bya static optimization formulation that requires only a static Lagrange multiplier to update the control history. It turns out that under Euler integration and rectangular approximation of finite integrals it is equivalent to the existing model predictive static programming technique. In addition to the benchmark double integrator problem, usefulness of the proposed technique is demonstrated by solving a three-dimensional angle-constrained guidance problem for an air-to-ground missile, which demands that the missile must meet constraints on both azimuth and elevation angles at the impact point in addition to achieving near-zero miss distance, while minimizing the lateral acceleration demand throughout its flight path. Simulation studies include maneuvering ground targets along with a first-order autopilot lag. Comparison studies with classical augmented proportional navigation guidance and modern general explicit guidance lead to the conclusion that the proposed guidance is superior to both and has a larger capture region as well.

Model and parameter uncertainty in IDF relationships under climate change

Quantifying distributional behavior of extreme events is crucial in hydrologic designs. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are used extensively in engineering especially in urban hydrology, to obtain return level of extreme rainfall event for a specified return period and duration. Major sources of uncertainty in the IDF relationships are due to insufficient quantity and quality of data leading to parameter uncertainty due to the distribution fitted to the data and uncertainty as a result of using multiple GCMs. It is important to study these uncertainties and propagate them to future for accurate assessment of return levels for future. The objective of this study is to quantify the uncertainties arising from parameters of the distribution fitted to data and the multiple GCM models using Bayesian approach. Posterior distribution of parameters is obtained from Bayes rule and the parameters are transformed to obtain return levels for a specified return period. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method using Metropolis Hastings algorithm is used to obtain the posterior distribution of parameters. Twenty six CMIP5 GCMs along with four RCP scenarios are considered for studying the effects of climate change and to obtain projected IDF relationships for the case study of Bangalore city in India. GCM uncertainty due to the use of multiple GCMs is treated using Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique along with the parameter uncertainty. Scale invariance theory is employed for obtaining short duration return levels from daily data. It is observed that the uncertainty in short duration rainfall return levels is high when compared to the longer durations. Further it is observed that parameter uncertainty is large compared to the model uncertainty. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.