Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Monsoon sensitivity to aerosol direct radiative forcing in the community atmosphere model

Aerosol forcing remains a dominant uncertainty in climate studies. The impact of aerosol direct radiative forcing on Indian monsoon is extremely complex and is strongly dependent on the model, aerosol distribution and characteristics specified in the model, modelling strategy employed as well as on spatial and temporal scales. The present study investigates (i) the aerosol direct radiative forcing impact on mean Indian summer monsoon when a combination of quasi-realistic mean annual cycles of scattering and absorbing aerosols derived from an aerosol transport model constrained with satellite observed Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is prescribed, (ii) the dominant feedback mechanism behind the simulated impact of all-aerosol direct radiative forcing on monsoon and (iii) the relative impacts of absorbing and scattering aerosols on mean Indian summer monsoon. We have used CAM3, an atmospheric GCM (AGCM) that has a comprehensive treatment of the aerosol-radiation interaction. This AGCM has been used to perform climate simulations with three different representations of aerosol direct radiative forcing due to the total, scattering aerosols and black carbon aerosols. We have also conducted experiments without any aerosol forcing. Aerosol direct impact due to scattering aerosols causes significant reduction in summer monsoon precipitation over India with a tendency for southward shift of Tropical Convergence Zones (TCZs) over the Indian region. Aerosol forcing reduces surface solar absorption over the primary rainbelt region of India and reduces the surface and lower tropospheric temperatures. Concurrent warming of the lower atmosphere over the warm oceanic region in the south reduces the land-ocean temperature contrast and weakens the monsoon overturning circulation and the advection of moisture into the landmass. This increases atmospheric convective stability, and decreases convection, clouds, precipitation and associated latent heat release. Our analysis reveals a defining negative moisture-advection feedback that acts as an internal damping mechanism spinning down the regional hydrological cycle and leading to significant circulation changes in response to external radiative forcing perturbations. When total aerosol loading (both absorbing and scattering aerosols) is prescribed, dust and black carbon aerosols are found to cause significant atmospheric heating over the monsoon region but the aerosol-induced weakening of meridional lower tropospheric temperature gradient (leading to weaker summer monsoon rainfall) more than offsets the increase in summer-time rainfall resulting from the atmospheric heating effect of absorbing aerosols, leading to a net decrease of summer monsoon rainfall. Further, we have carried out climate simulations with globally constant AODs and also with the constant AODs over the extended Indian region replaced by realistic AODs. Regional aerosol radiative forcing perturbations over the Indian region is found to have impact not only over the region of loading but over remote tropical regions as well. This warrants the need to prescribe realistic aerosol properties in strategic regions such as India in order to accurately assess the aerosol impact.

Large scale features and assessment of spatial scale correspondence between TMPA and IMD rainfall datasets over Indian landmass

Daily rainfall datasets of 10 years (1998-2007) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 6 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rain gauge have been compared over the Indian landmass, both in large and small spatial scales. On the larger spatial scale, the pattern correlation between the two datasets on daily scales during individual years of the study period is ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. The correlation improved significantly (similar to 0.9) when the study was confined to specific wet and dry spells each of about 5-8 days. Wavelet analysis of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) of the southwest monsoon rainfall show the percentage contribution of the major two modes (30-50 days and 10-20 days), to be ranging respectively between similar to 30-40% and 5-10% for the various years. Analysis of inter-annual variability shows the satellite data to be underestimating seasonal rainfall by similar to 110 mm during southwest monsoon and overestimating by similar to 150 mm during northeast monsoon season. At high spatio-temporal scales, viz., 1 degrees x1 degrees grid, TMPA data do not correspond to ground truth. We have proposed here a new analysis procedure to assess the minimum spatial scale at which the two datasets are compatible with each other. This has been done by studying the contribution to total seasonal rainfall from different rainfall rate windows (at 1 mm intervals) on different spatial scales (at daily time scale). The compatibility spatial scale is seen to be beyond 5 degrees x5 degrees average spatial scale over the Indian landmass. This will help to decide the usability of TMPA products, if averaged at appropriate spatial scales, for specific process studies, e.g., cloud scale, meso scale or synoptic scale.

Climatic variability in Central Indian Himalaya during the last similar to 1800 years: Evidence from a high resolution speleothem record

Stable isotopes from a U/Th dated aragonite stalagmite from the Central Kumaun Himalaya provide evidence of variation in climatic conditions in the last similar to 1800 years. The delta O-18 and delta C-13 values vary from -4.3 parts per thousand to -7.6 parts per thousand and -3.4 parts per thousand to -9.1 parts per thousand respectively, although the stalagmite was not grown in isotopic equilibrium with cave drip water, a clear palaeoclimatic signal in stalagmite delta O-18 values is evident based on the regional climate data. The stalagmite showed a rapid growth rate during 830-910 AD, most likely the lower part of Medieval Warm Period (MWP), and 1600-1640 AD, the middle part of Little Ice Age (LIA). Two distinct phases of reduced precipitation are marked by a 2 parts per thousand shift in 8180 values towards the end of MWP (similar to 1080-1160 AD) and after its termination from similar to 1210 to 1440 AD. The LIA (similar to 1440-1880 AD) is represented by sub-tropical climate similar to modern conditions, whereas the post-LIA was comparatively drier. The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was located over the cave location during wetter/warmer conditions. When it shifted southward, precipitation over the study area decreased. A prominent drop in delta O-18 and delta C-13 values during the post-LIA period may also have been additionally influenced by anthropogenic activity in the area. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

A note on new indices for the equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation

It is now well known that there is a strong association of the extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) with the El Nio and southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), later being an east-west oscillation in convection anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean. So far, the index used for EQUINOO is EQWIN, which is based on the surface zonal wind over the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Since the most important attribute of EQUINOO is the oscillation in convection/precipitation, we believe that the indices based on convection or precipitation would be more appropriate. Continuous and reliable data on outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and satellite derived precipitation are now available from 1979 onwards. Hence, in this paper, we introduce new indices for EQUINOO, based on the difference in the anomaly of OLR/precipitation between eastern and western parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean. We show that the strong association of extremes of the Indian summer monsoon with ENSO and EQUINOO is also seen when the new indices are used to represent EQUINOO.

Trends in aerosol optical depth over Indian region: Potential causes and impact indicators

The first regional synthesis of long-term (back to similar to 25 years at some stations) primary data (from direct measurement) on aerosol optical depth from the ARFINET (network of aerosol observatories established under the Aerosol Radiative Forcing over India (ARFI) project of Indian Space Research Organization over Indian subcontinent) have revealed a statistically significant increasing trend with a significant seasonal variability. Examining the current values of turbidity coefficients with those reported similar to 50 years ago reveals the phenomenal nature of the increase in aerosol loading. Seasonally, the rate of increase is consistently high during the dry months (December to March) over the entire region whereas the trends are rather inconsistent and weak during the premonsoon (April to May) and summer monsoon period (June to September). The trends in the spectral variation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) reveal the significance of anthropogenic activities on the increasing trend in AOD. Examining these with climate variables such as seasonal and regional rainfall, it is seen that the dry season depicts a decreasing trend in the total number of rainy days over the Indian region. The insignificant trend in AOD observed over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, a regional hot spot of aerosols, during the premonsoon and summer monsoon season is mainly attributed to the competing effects of dust transport and wet removal of aerosols by the monsoon rain. Contributions of different aerosol chemical species to the total dust, simulated using Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model over the ARFINET stations, showed an increasing trend for all the anthropogenic components and a decreasing trend for dust, consistent with the inference deduced from trend in Angstrom exponent.

Tectonic inheritance of the Indian Shield: New insights from its elastic thickness structure

A new evaluation of the elastic thickness (Te) structure of the Indian Shield, derived from isotropic fan wavelet methodology, documents spatial variations of lithospheric deformation in different tectonic provinces correlated with episodic tectono-thermal events. The Te variations corroborated by shear velocity, crustal thickness, and seismogenic thickness reveal the heterogeneous rheology of the Indian lithosphere. The thinned, attenuated lithosphere beneath Peninsular India is considered to be the reason for its mechanically weak strength (<30 km), where a decoupled crust-mantle rheology under different surface/subsurface loading structures may explain the prominent low Te patterns. The arcuate Te structure of the Western Dharwar province and a NNE-trending band of low Te anomaly in the Southern Granulite Terrane are intriguing patterns. The average Te values (40-50 km) of the Central Indian Tectonic Zone, the Bastar Craton, and the northern Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt are suggestive of old, stable, Indian lithosphere, which was not affected by any major tectono-thermal events after cratonic stabilization. We propose that the anomalously high Te (60-85 km) and high S-wave velocity zone to the north of the Narmada-Son Lineament, mainly in NW Himalaya, and the northern Aravalli and Bundelkhand Cratons, suggest that Archean lithosphere characterized by a high velocity mantle keel supports the orogenic topographic loads in/near the Himalaya. The Te map clearly segments the volcanic provinces of the Indian Shield, where the signatures of the Reunion, Marion, and Kerguelen hotspots are indicated by significantly low Te patterns that correlate with plume- and rift-related thermal and mechanical rejuvenation, magmatic underplating, and crustal necking. The correlations between Te variations and the occurrence of seismicity over seismically active zones reveal different causal relationships, which led to the current seismogenic zonation of the Indian Shield. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes: Seismotectonic context and implications for their mechanisms

The 11 April 2012 earthquakes (M-w 8.6 and M-w 8.2) were sourced within the Northern Wharton Basin in the northeastern part of the Indo-Australian diffuse plate boundary. This unusually active oceanic intraplate region has generated many large earthquakes in the past, most of which are believed to have occurred by strike-slip motion, triggered by the NW-SE oriented compressional stresses acting across the Indian and Australian plates. In the aftermath of the 2004 megathrust earthquake along the nearby Sunda Trench, increased seismicity in the Northern Wharton Basin is attributed to the stress transfer from the Sumatra-Andaman plate boundary. Models proposed for the April 2012 earthquakes differ somewhat in details but partly attribute their complex rupture to the reactivation of pre-existing structures. These structures include previously mapped N-S trending fracture zones within the Northern Wharton Basin and E-W lineations across the Ninetyeast Ridge. In this paper, we review the regional tectonics and past seismicity on the Indo-Australian Plate in order to understand the seismotectonic setting of the April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Sensitivity of meteorological input and soil properties in simulating aerosols (dust, PM10, and BC) using CHIMERE chemistry transport model

The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of a European chemistry transport model, `CHIMERE' driven by the US meteorological model MM5, in simulating aerosol concentrations dust, PM10 and black carbon (BC)] over the Indian region. An evaluation of a meteorological event (dust storm); impact of change in soil-related parameters and meteorological input grid resolution on these aerosol concentrations has been performed. Dust storm simulation over Indo-Gangetic basin indicates ability of the model to capture dust storm events. Measured (AERONET data) and simulated parameters such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom exponent are used to evaluate the performance of the model to capture the dust storm event. A sensitivity study is performed to investigate the impact of change in soil characteristics (thickness of the soil layer in contact with air, volumetric water, and air content of the soil) and meteorological input grid resolution on the aerosol (dust, PM10, BC) distribution. Results show that soil parameters and meteorological input grid resolution have an important impact on spatial distribution of aerosol (dust, PM10, BC) concentrations.

Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Performance of WRF-Chem over Indian region: Comparison with measurements

The aerosol mass concentrations over several Indian regions have been simulated using the online chemistry transport model, WRF-Chem, for two distinct seasons of 2011, representing the pre-monsoon (May) and post-monsoon (October) periods during the Indo-US joint experiment `Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX)'. The simulated values were compared with concurrent measurements. It is found that the model systematically underestimates near-surface BC mass concentrations as well as columnar Aerosol Optical Depths (AODs) from the measurements. Examining this in the light of the model-simulated meteorological parameters, we notice the model overestimates both planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and surface wind speeds, leading to deeper mixing and dispersion and hence lower surface concentrations of aerosols. Shortcoming in simulating rainfall pattern also has an impact through the scavenging effect. It also appears that the columnar AODs are influenced by the unrealistic emission scenarios in the model. Comparison with vertical profiles of BC obtained from aircraft-based measurements also shows a systematic underestimation by the model at all levels. It is seen that concentration of other aerosols, viz., dust and sea-salt are closely linked with meteorological conditions prevailing over the region. Dust is higher during pre-monsoon periods due to the prevalence of north-westerly winds that advect dust from deserts of west Asia into the Indo-Gangetic plain. Winds and rainfall influence sea-salt concentrations. Thus, the unrealistic simulation of wind and rainfall leads to model simulated dust and sea-salt also to deviate from the real values; which together with BC also causes underperformance of the model with regard to columnar AOD. It appears that for better simulations of aerosols over Indian region, the model needs an improvement in the simulation of the meteorology.

Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracking the migration of the Indian continent using the carbonate clumped isotope technique on Phanerozoic soil carbonates

Approximately 140 million years ago, the Indian plate separated from Gondwana and migrated by almost 90 degrees latitude to its current location, forming the Himalayan-Tibetan system. Large discrepancies exist in the rate of migration of Indian plate during Phanerozoic. Here we describe a new approach to paleo-latitudinal reconstruction based on simultaneous determination of carbonate formation temperature and delta O-18 of soil carbonates, constrained by the abundances of C-13-O-18 bonds in palaeosol carbonates. Assuming that the palaeosol carbonates have a strong relationship with the composition of the meteoric water, delta O-18 carbonate of palaeosol can constrain paleo-latitudinal position. Weighted mean annual rainfall delta O-18 water values measured at several stations across the southern latitudes are used to derive a polynomial equation: delta(18)Ow = -0.006 x (LAT)(2) - 0.294 x (LAT) - 5.29 which is used for latitudinal reconstruction. We use this approach to show the northward migration of the Indian plate from 46.8 +/- 5.8 degrees S during the Permian (269 M. y.) to 30 +/- 11 degrees S during the Triassic (248 M. y.), 14.7 +/- 8.7 degrees S during the early Cretaceous (135 M. y.), and 28 +/- 8.8 degrees S during the late Cretaceous ( 68 M. y.). Soil carbonate delta O-18 provides an alternative method for tracing the latitudinal position of Indian plate in the past and the estimates are consistent with the paleo-magnetic records which document the position of Indian plate prior to 135 +/- 3 M. y.

The 2014 M-w 6.1 Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, Earthquake: A Possible Association with the 85 degrees E Ridge

Oceanic intraplate earthquakes are known to occur either on active ridge-transform structures or by reactivation of their inactive counterparts, generally referred to as fossil ridges or transforms. The Indian Ocean, one of the most active oceanic intraplate regions, has generated large earthquakes associated with both these types of structures. The moderate earthquake that occurred on 21 May 2014 (M-w 6.1) in the northern Bay of Bengal followed an alternate mechanism, as it showed no clear association either with active or extinct ridge-transform structures. Its focal depth of >50 km is uncommon but not improbable, given the similar to 90 Ma age of the ocean floor with 12-km-thick overlying sediments. No tectonic features have been mapped in the near vicinity of its epicenter, the closest being the 85 degrees E ridge, located similar to 100 km to its west, hitherto regarded as seismically inactive. The few earthquakes that have occurred here in the past are clustered around its southern or northern limits, and a few are located midway, at around 10 degrees N. The 2014 earthquake, sourced close to the northern cluster, seems to be associated with a northwest-southeast-oriented fracture, located on the eastern flanks of the 85 degrees E ridge. If this causal association is possible, we believe that reactivation of fossil hotspot trails could be considered as another mechanism for oceanic intraplate seismicity.