Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structural principle for a class of adaptive systems

A feature common to many adaptive systems for identification and control is the adjustment.of gain parameters in a manner ensuring the stability of the overall system. This paper puts forward a principle which assures such a result for arbitrary systems which are linear and time invariant except for the adjustable parameters. The principle only demands that a transfer function be positive real. This transfer function dependent on the structure of the system with respect to the parameters. Several examples from adaptive identification, control and observer schemes are given as illustrations of the conceptual simplification provided by the structural principle.

On Paley-Wiener Theorems for the Heisenberg Group

In this paper we prove two Paley-Wiener-type theorems for the Heisenberg group. One is for the group Fourier transform which is the analogue of the classical Paley-Wiener theorem. The other one is for the spectral projections associated to the sub-Laplacian

Effect of uncertainty on helicopter performance predictions

The effect of uncertainties on performance predictions of a helicopter is studied in this article. The aeroelastic parameters such as the air density, blade profile drag coefficient, main rotor angular velocity, main rotor radius, and blade chord are considered as uncertain variables. The propagation of these uncertainties in the performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, figure of merit, induced velocity, and power required are studied using Monte Carlo simulation and the first-order reliability method. The Rankine-Froude momentum theory is used for performance prediction in hover, axial climb, and forward flight. The propagation of uncertainty causes large deviations from the baseline deterministic predictions, which undoubtedly affect both the achievable performance and the safety of the helicopter. The numerical results in this article provide useful bounds on helicopter power requirements.

Composite material and piezoelectric coefficient uncertainty effects on structural health monitoring using feedback control gains as damage indicators

This article addresses uncertainty effect on the health monitoring of a smart structure using control gain shifts as damage indicators. A finite element model of the smart composite plate with surface-bonded piezoelectric sensors and actuators is formulated using first-order shear deformation theory and a matrix crack model is integrated into the finite element model. A constant gain velocity/position feedback control algorithm is used to provide active damping to the structure. Numerical results show that the response of the structure is changed due to matrix cracks and this change can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback controller. This change in control gain can be used as a damage indicator for structural health monitoring. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to study the effect of material uncertainty on the damage indicator by considering composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients as independent random variables. It is found that the change in position feedback control gain is a robust damage indicator.

Density-matrix renormalization-group studies of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg system with dimerization and frustration

Using the density-matrix renormalization-group technique, we study the ground-state phase diagram and other low-energy properties of an isotropic antiferromagnetic spin-1/2 chain with both dimerization and frustration, i.e., an alternation delta of the nearest-neighbor exchanges and a next-nearest-neighbor exchange J(2). For delta = 0, the system is gapless for J(2) < J(2c) and has a gap for J(2) > J(2c) where J(2c) is about 0.241. For J(2) = J(2c) the gap above the ground state grows as delta to the power 0.667 +/- 0.001. In the J(2)-delta plane, there is a disorder line 2J(2) + delta = 1. To the left of this line, the peak in the static structure factor S(q) is at q(max) = pi (Neel phase), while to the right of the line, q(max) decreases from pi to pi/2 as J(2) is increased to large values (spiral phase). For delta = 1, the system is equivalent to two coupled chains as on a ladder and it is gapped for all values of the interchain coupling.

The principle of microscopic reversibility in organic chemistry - a critique

The principle of microscopic reversibility is one of the few generalising principles used in organic chemistry which have their roots in the fundamental laws of thermodynamics. It has, therefore, been highly popular. However, although the principle has some important uses, its general application is not without pitfalls. The principle is easy to misunderstand and to misapply: indeed, some of its formulations are semantically dubious. The principle is most dangerous when used as a charm, for it is more subtle than some of its formulations suggest. But above all, the principle may not be used for deducing or disproving the mechanism of a reaction, except when the mechanism in the reverse direction is known independently. For, such use is, perhaps, the deadliest misapplication.

First-principle description of magnonic PdnFem multilayers

Ab-initio calculations are used to determine the parameters that determine magnonic band structure of PdnFem multilayers (n = 2, m <= 8). We obtain the layer-resolved magnetization, the exchange coupling, and the magnetic anisotropy of the Pd-Fe structures. The Fe moment is 3.0 mu(B) close to the Pd layers and 2.2 mu(B) in the middle of the Fe layers. An intriguing but not usually considered aspect is that the elemental Pd is nonmagnetic, similar to Cu spacer layers in other multilayer systems. This leads to a pre-asymptotic ferromagnetic coupling through the Pd (about 40 mJ/m(2)). Furthermore, the Pd acquires a small moment due to spin polarization by neighboring Fe atoms, which translates into magnetic anisotropy. The anisotropies are large, in the range typical for L1(0) structures, which is beneficial for high-frequency applications. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3556763]

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

GNSS Signal Detection Under Noise Uncertainty

High sensitivity detection techniques are required for indoor navigation using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, and typically, a combination of coherent and non- coherent integration is used as the test statistic for detection. The coherent integration exploits the deterministic part of the signal and is limited due to the residual frequency error, navigation data bits and user dynamics, which are not known apriori. So, non- coherent integration, which involves squaring of the coherent integration output, is used to improve the detection sensitivity. Due to this squaring, it is robust against the artifacts introduced due to data bits and/or frequency error. However, it is susceptible to uncertainty in the noise variance, and this can lead to fundamental sensitivity limits in detecting weak signals. In this work, the performance of the conventional non-coherent integration-based GNSS signal detection is studied in the presence of noise uncertainty. It is shown that the performance of the current state of the art GNSS receivers is close to the theoretical SNR limit for reliable detection at moderate levels of noise uncertainty. Alternate robust post-coherent detectors are also analyzed, and are shown to alleviate the noise uncertainty problem. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to confirm the theoretical predictions.

Robust Formulations for Handling Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

We study the problem of uncertainty in the entries of the Kernel matrix, arising in SVM formulation. Using Chance Constraint Programming and a novel large deviation inequality we derive a formulation which is robust to such noise. The resulting formulation applies when the noise is Gaussian, or has finite support. The formulation in general is non-convex, but in several cases of interest it reduces to a convex program. The problem of uncertainty in kernel matrix is motivated from the real world problem of classifying proteins when the structures are provided with some uncertainty. The formulation derived here naturally incorporates such uncertainty in a principled manner leading to significant improvements over the state of the art. 1.

Driven Heisenberg magnets: Nonequilibrium criticality, spatiotemporal chaos and control

We drive a d-dimensional Heisenberg magnet using an anisotropic current. The continuum Langevin equation is analysed using a dynamical renormalization group and numerical simulations. We discover a rich steady-state phase diagram, including a critical point in a new nonequilibrium universality class, and a spatiotemporally chaotic phase. The latter may be controlled in a robust manner to target spatially periodic steady states with helical order.