Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia.

Stall flutter of NACA 0012 airfoil at low Reynolds numbers

In the present work, we experimentally study and demarcate the stall flutter boundaries of a NACA 0012 airfoil at low Reynolds numbers (Re similar to 10(4)) by measuring the forces and flow fields around the airfoil when it is forced to oscillate. The airfoil is placed at large mean angle of attack (alpha(m)), and is forced to undergo small amplitude pitch oscillations, the amplitude (Delta alpha) and frequency (f) of which are systematically varied. The unsteady loads on the oscillating airfoil are directly measured, and are used to calculate the energy transfer to the airfoil from the flow. These measurements indicate that for large mean angles of attack of the airfoil (alpha(m)), there is positive energy transfer to the airfoil over a range of reduced frequencies (k=pi fc/U), indicating that there is a possibility of airfoil excitation or stall flutter even at these low Re (c=chord length). Outside this range of reduced frequencies, the energy transfer is negative and under these conditions the oscillations would be damped. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements of the flow around the oscillating airfoil show that the shear layer separates from the leading edge and forms a leading edge vortex, although it is not very clear and distinct due to the low oscillation amplitudes. On the other hand, the shear layer formed after separation is found to clearly move periodically away from the airfoil suction surface and towards it with a phase lag to the airfoil oscillations. The phase of the shear layer motion with respect to the airfoil motions shows a clear difference between the exciting and the damping case.

Globally coupled stochastic two-state oscillators: Fluctuations due to finite numbers

Infinite arrays of coupled two-state stochastic oscillators exhibit well-defined steady states. We study the fluctuations that occur when the number N of oscillators in the array is finite. We choose a particular form of global coupling that in the infinite array leads to a pitchfork bifurcation from a monostable to a bistable steady state, the latter with two equally probable stationary states. The control parameter for this bifurcation is the coupling strength. In finite arrays these states become metastable: The fluctuations lead to distributions around the most probable states, with one maximum in the monostable regime and two maxima in the bistable regime. In the latter regime, the fluctuations lead to transitions between the two peak regions of the distribution. Also, we find that the fluctuations break the symmetry in the bimodal regime, that is, one metastable state becomes more probable than the other, increasingly so with increasing array size. To arrive at these results, we start from microscopic dynamical evolution equations from which we derive a Langevin equation that exhibits an interesting multiplicative noise structure. We also present a master equation description of the dynamics. Both of these equations lead to the same Fokker-Planck equation, the master equation via a 1/N expansion and the Langevin equation via standard methods of Ito calculus for multiplicative noise. From the Fokker-Planck equation we obtain an effective potential that reflects the transition from the monomodal to the bimodal distribution as a function of a control parameter. We present a variety of numerical and analytic results that illustrate the strong effects of the fluctuations. We also show that the limits N -> infinity and t -> infinity(t is the time) do not commute. In fact, the two orders of implementation lead to drastically different results.

Effect of Rayleigh numbers on the evolution of double-diffusive salt fingers

This is a transient two-dimensional numerical study of double-diffusive salt fingers in a two-layer heat-salt system for a wide range of initial density stability ratio (R-rho 0) and thermal Rayleigh numbers (Ra-T similar to 10(3) - 10(11)). Salt fingers have been studied for several decades now, but several perplexing features of this rich and complex system remain unexplained. The work in question studies this problem and shows the morphological variation in fingers from low to high thermal Rayleigh numbers, which have been missed by the previous investigators. Considerable variations in convective structures and evolution pattern were observed in the range of Ra-T used in the simulation. Evolution of salt fingers was studied by monitoring the finger structures, kinetic energy, vertical profiles, velocity fields, and transient variation of R-rho(t). The results show that large scale convection that limits the finger length was observed only at high Rayleigh numbers. The transition from nonlinear to linear convection occurs at about Ra-T similar to 10(8). Contrary to the popular notion, R-rho(t) first decrease during diffusion before the onset time and then increase when convection begins at the interface. Decrease in R-rho(t) is substantial at low Ra-T and it decreases even below unity resulting in overturning of the system. Interestingly, all the finger system passes through the same state before the onset of convection irrespective of Rayleigh number and density stability ratio of the system. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.

Secondary breakup of a drop at moderate Weber numbers

We present volume of fluid based numerical simulations of secondary breakup of a drop with high density ratio (approx. 1000) and also perform experiments by injecting monodisperse water droplets in a continuous jet of air and capture the breakup regimes, namely, bag formation, bag-stamen, multibag and shear breakup, observed in the moderate Weber number range (20-120). We observe an interesting transition regime between bag and shear breakup for We = 80, in both simulations as well as experiments, where the formation of multiple lobes, is observed, instead of a single bag, which are connected to each other via thicker rim-like threads that hold them. We show that the transition from bag to shear breakup occurs owing to the rim dynamics which shows retraction under capillary forces at We = 80, whereas the rim is sheared away with flow at We = 120 thus resulting in a backward facing bag. The drop characteristics and timescales obtained in simulations are in good agreement with experiments. The drop size distribution after the breakup shows bimodal nature for the single-bag breakup mode and a unimodal nature following lognormal distribution for higher Weber numbers.

Modeling harvest rates and numbers from age and sex ratios: A demonstration for elephant populations

Illegal harvest rates of wildlife populations are often unknown or difficult to estimate from field data due to under-reporting or incomplete detection of carcasses. This is especially true for elephants that are killed for ivory or in conflicts with people. We describe a method to infer harvest rates from coarse field data of three population parameters, namely, adult female to male ratio, male old-adult to young-adult ratio, and proportion of adult males in the population using Jensen's (2000) 2-sex, density-dependent Leslie matrix model. The specific combination of male and female harvest rates and numbers can be determined from the history of harvest and estimate of population size. We applied this technique to two populations of elephants for which data on age structure and records of mortality were available-a forest-dwelling population of the Asian elephant (at Nagarahole, India) and an African savannah elephant population (at Samburu, Kenya) that had experienced male-biased harvest regimes over 2-3 decades. For the Nagarahole population, the recorded numbers of male and female elephants killed illegally during 1981-2000 were 64% and 88% of the values predicted by the model, respectively, implying some non-detection or incomplete reporting while for the Samburu population the recorded and modeled numbers of harvest during 1990-1999 closely matched. This technique, applicable to any animal population following logistic growth model, can be especially useful for inferring illegal harvest numbers of forest elephants in Africa and Asia. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.