Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

When good neighbors don't need fences: temporal landscape partitioning among baboon social groups

Intraspecific competition is a key factor shaping space-use strategies and movement decisions in many species, yet how and when neighbors utilize shared areas while exhibiting active avoidance of one another is largely unknown. Here, we investigated temporal landscape partitioning in a population of wild baboons (Papio cynocephalus). We used global positioning system (GPS) collars to synchronously record the hourly locations of five baboon social groups for similar to 900 days, and we used behavioral, demographic, and life history data to measure factors affecting use of overlap areas. Annual home ranges of neighboring groups overlapped substantially, as predicted (baboons are considered non-territorial), but home ranges overlapped less when space use was assessed over shorter time scales. Moreover, neighboring groups were in close spatial proximity to one another on fewer days than predicted by a null model, suggesting an avoidance-based spacing pattern. At all time scales examined (monthly, biweekly, and weekly), time spent in overlap areas was greater during time periods when groups fed on evenly dispersed, low-quality foods. The percent of fertile females in social groups was negatively correlated with time spent in overlap areas only during weekly time intervals. This suggests that broad temporal changes in ecological resources are a major predictor of how intensively overlap areas are used, and groups modify these ecologically driven spacing patterns at short time scales based on female reproductive status. Together, these findings offer insight into the economics of territoriality by highlighting the dynamics of spacing patterns at differing time scales.

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.

Indicator-based urban sustainability-A review

Sustainability has emerged as one of the important planning concepts from its beginnings in economics and ecological thinking, and has widely been applied to assessing urban development. Different methods, techniques and instruments for urban sustainability assessment that help determine how cities can become more sustainable have emerged over a period of time. Among these, indicator-based approaches contribute to building of sustainable self-regulated systems that integrate development and environment protection. Hence, these provide a solid foundation for decision-making at all levels and are being increasingly used. The present paper builds on the background of the available literature and suggests the need for benchmarking indicator-based approach in a given urban area and incorporating various local issues, thus enhancing the long-term sustainability of cities which can be developed by introducing sustainability indicators into the urban planning process. (C) 2013 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Biodiversity and ecological assessments of Indian sacred groves

Sacred groves are patches of forests preserved for their spiritual and religious significance. The practice gained relevance with the spread of agriculture that caused large-scale deforestation affecting biodiversity and watersheds. Sacred groves may lose their prominence nowadays, but are still relevant in Indian rural landscapes inhabited by traditional communities. The recent rise of interest in this tradition encouraged scientific study that despite its pan-Indian distribution, focused on India's northeast, Western Ghats and east coast either for their global/regional importance or unique ecosystems. Most studies focused on flora, mainly angiosperms, and the faunal studies concentrated on vertebrates while lower life forms were grossly neglected. Studies on ecosystem functioning are few although observations are available. Most studies attributed watershed protection values to sacred groves but hardly highlighted hydrological process or water yield in comparison with other land use types. The grove studies require diversification from a stereotyped path and must move towards creating credible scientific foundations for conservation. Documentation should continue in unexplored areas but more work is needed on basic ecological functions and ecosystem dynamics to strengthen planning for scientifically sound sacred grove management.

Delineating Ecological Boundaries of Hanuman Langur Species Complex in Peninsular India Using MaxEnt Modeling Approach

Hanuman langur is one of the widely distributed and extensively studied non-human diurnal primates in India. Until recently it was believed to be a single species - Semnopithecus entellus. Recent molecular and morphological studies suggest that the Hanuman langurs consists of at least three species S. entellus, S. hypoleucos and S. priam. Furthermore, morphological studies suggested that both S. hypoleucos and S. priam have at least three subspecies in each. We explored the use of ecological niche modeling (ENM) to confirm the validity of these seven taxa and an additional taxon S. johnii belonging to the same genus. MaxEnt modeling tool was used with 19 bioclimatic, 12 vegetation and 6 hydrological environmental layers. We reduced total environmental variables to 14 layers after testing for collinearity and an independent test for model prediction was done using ENMTools. A total of 196 non-overlapping data points from primary and secondary sources were used as inputs for ENM. Results showed eight distinct ecological boundaries, corroborating the eight taxa mentioned above thereby confirming validity of these eight taxa. The study, for the first time provided ecological variables that determined the ecological requirements and distribution of members of the Hanuman langur species complex in the Indian peninsula.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

The opportunity for sampling: the ecological context of female mate choice

Female mate choice decisions, which influence sexual selection, involve complex interactions between the 2 sexes and the environment. Theoretical models predict that male movement and spacing in the field should influence female sampling tactics, and in turn, females should drive the evolution of male movement and spacing to sample them optimally. Theoretically, simultaneous sampling of males using the best-of-n or comparative Bayes strategy should yield maximum mating benefits to females. We examined the ecological context of female mate sampling based on acoustic signals in the tree cricket Oecanthus henryi to determine whether the conditions for such optimal strategies were met in the field. These strategies involve recall of the quality and location of individual males, which in turn requires male positions to be stable within a night. Calling males rarely moved within a night, potentially enabling female sampling strategies that require recall. To examine the possibility of simultaneous acoustic sampling of males, we estimated male acoustic active spaces using information on male spacing, call transmission, and female hearing threshold. Males were found to be spaced far apart, and active space overlap was rare. We then examined female sampling scenarios by studying female spacing relative to male acoustic active spaces. Only 15% of sampled females could hear multiple males, suggesting that simultaneous mate sampling is rare in the field. Moreover, the relatively large distances between calling males suggest high search costs, which may favor threshold strategies that do not require memory.

Recent freshwater Ostracoda and Bivalvia from Indo-Nepal border (Tethys Himalaya): Ecological implications

We report for the first time Recent ostracods and bivalves from Central Tethys Himalaya, collected from Changru village, which is situated in the Tinker valley of northwestern Nepal near the Indo-Nepal border. The specimens were collected from the surface sediments of a small pond, shaped by a small tributary of the glacier fed Tinker River. The ostracod species belonging to the families Ilyocyprididae, Cyprididae and Candonidae and one bivalve (Pisidium sp., Family Pisidiidae) have been identified. Psychrodromus olivaccus and Potamocypris villosa are being reported for the first time from India and Nepal. Several broken and unidentifiable gyrogonites of charophyta were also recovered. The ostracod sample, as a whole, points to a shallow freshwater lake environment influenced by slowly running carbonate rich waters under cool temperatures, low mineralization and sparse vegetation. This is in accordance with the occurrence of Pisidium, which is commonly associated with ostracods in the freshwater lakes and streams. The ostracod fauna shows affinity with the fossil and extant forms recovered from the Higher and Tethys Himalaya of NW India. This opens a new opportunity for studying ostracods in the Indian Central Himalaya - a region which otherwise has been ignored until now.

Primates, Provisioning and Plants: Impacts of Human Cultural Behaviours on Primate Ecological Functions

Human provisioning of wildlife with food is a widespread global practice that occurs in multiple socio-cultural circumstances. Provisioning may indirectly alter ecosystem functioning through changes in the eco-ethology of animals, but few studies have quantified this aspect. Provisioning of primates by humans is known to impact their activity budgets, diets and ranging patterns. Primates are also keystone species in tropical forests through their role as seed dispersers; yet there is no information on how provisioning might affect primate ecological functions. The rhesus macaque is a major human-commensal species but is also an important seed disperser in the wild. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of provisioning on the role of rhesus macaques as seed dispersers in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India. We studied a troop of macaques which were provisioned for a part of the year and were dependent on natural resources for the rest. We observed feeding behaviour, seed handling techniques and ranging patterns of the macaques and monitored availability of wild fruits. Irrespective of fruit availability, frugivory and seed dispersal activities decreased when the macaques were provisioned. Provisioned macaques also had shortened daily ranges implying shorter dispersal distances. Finally, during provisioning periods, seeds were deposited on tarmac roads that were unconducive for germination. Provisioning promotes human-primate conflict, as commensal primates are often involved in aggressive encounters with humans over resources, leading to negative consequences for both parties involved. Preventing or curbing provisioning is not an easy task as feeding wild animals is a socio-cultural tradition across much of South and South-East Asia, including India. We recommend the initiation of literacy programmes that educate lay citizens about the ill-effects of provisioning and strongly caution them against the practice.

Air-pollution and economics: diesel bus versus electric bus

The Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC) took an initiative to check the overall benefits of introducing electric buses as a suitable replacement for the diesel buses to tackle the burgeoning pollution in the city of Bengaluru, India. For a trial run of three months, an electric bus was procured from a Chinese company `Build Your Dreams' (BYD). Data were collected by BMTC on the operation and maintenance of the bus. This new initiative, if rightly guided, could have a direct impact on the lives of those in the city. An economic analysis of the running as well as maintenance of the electric buses within the city limits was performed. For comparison, the same analysis was performed for the data from the existing diesel bus operating on the same route. On the basis of the study, it can be concluded that the introduction of electric buses as a means of public transport in the city would be beneficial both economically as well as environmentally. The electric bus also makes much less noise, thereby helping reduce noise pollution and makes less vibration when compared to the diesel bus. This results in a more comfortable journey for the passengers.