NUMERICAL STUDIES OF DYNAMO ACTION IN A TURBULENT SHEAR FLOW. I.

We perform numerical experiments to study the shear dynamo problem where we look for the growth of a large-scale magnetic field due to non-helical stirring at small scales in a background linear shear flow in previously unexplored parameter regimes. We demonstrate the large-scale dynamo action in the limit where the fluid Reynolds number (Re) is below unity while the magnetic Reynolds number (Rm) is above unity; the exponential growth rate scales linearly with shear, which is consistent with earlier numerical works. The limit of low Re is particularly interesting, as seeing the dynamo action in this limit would provide enough motivation for further theoretical investigations, which may focus attention on this analytically more tractable limit of Re < 1 compared to the more formidable limit of Re > 1. We also perform simulations in the regimes where (i) both (Re, Rm) < 1, and (ii) Re > 1 and Rm < 1, and compute all of the components of the turbulent transport coefficients (alpha(ij) and alpha(ij)) using the test-field method. A reasonably good agreement is observed between our results and the results of earlier analytical works in similar parameter regimes.

Correlation Between Decay Rate and Amplitude of Solar Cycles as Revealed from Observations and Dynamo Theory

Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of the solar cycle: i) The linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, ii) the linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and the decay rate of cycle , and iii) the anti-correlation between the amplitude of cycle and the period of cycle . Features ii) and iii) are very useful because they provide precursors for future cycles. We have reproduced these features using a flux-transport dynamo model with stochastic fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton effect and in the meridional circulation. Only when we introduce fluctuations in meridional circulation, are we able to reproduce different observed features of the solar cycle. We discuss the possible reasons for these correlations.

A theoretical model for the magnetic helicity of solar active regions

Active regions on the solar surface are known to possess magnetic helicity, which is predominantly negative in the northern hemisphere and positive in the southern hemisphere. Choudhuri et al. [Choudhuri, A.R. On the connection between mean field dynamo theory and flux tubes. Solar Phys. 215, 31–55, 2003] proposed that the magnetic helicity arises due to the wrapping up of the poloidal field of the convection zone around rising flux tubes which form active regions. Choudhuri [Choudhuri, A.R., Chatterjee, P., Nandy, D. Helicity of solar active regions from a dynamo model. ApJ 615, L57–L60, 2004] used this idea to calculate magnetic helicity from their solar dynamo model. Apart from getting broad agreements with observational data, they also predict that the hemispheric helicity rule may be violated at the beginning of a solar cycle. Chatterjee et al. [Chatterjee, P., Choudhuri, A.R., Petrovay, K. Development of twist in an emerging magnetic flux tube by poloidal field accretion. A&A 449, 781–789, 2006] study the penetration of the wrapped poloidal field into the rising flux tube due to turbulent diffusion using a simple 1-d model. They find that the extent of penetration of the wrapped field will depend on how weak the magnetic field inside the rising flux tube becomes before its emergence. They conclude that more detailed observational data will throw light on the physical conditions of flux tubes just before their emergence to the photosphere.

On the out of phase appearance of large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the sun with respect to sunspots

We assume the large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the Sun to originate from the poloidal component of a dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, whereas the sunspots are due to the toroidal component. The evolution of the poloidal component is studied to model the poleward migration of the diffuse field seen on the solar surface and the polar reversal at the time of sunspot maxima (Dikpati and Choudhuri 1994, 1995).

On the Large-Scale Diffuse Magnetic Field of the Sun

Although the sunspots migrate towards the equator, the large-scale weak diffuse magnetic fields of the Sun migrate poleward with the solar cycle, the polar field reversing at the time of the sunspot maxima. We apply the vector model of Dikpati and Choudhuri (1994, Paper I) to fit these observations. The dynamo layer at the base of the convection zone is taken to be the source of the diffuse field, which is then evolved in the convection zone subject to meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. We find that the longitudinally averaged observational data can be fitted reasonably well both for positive and negative values of the alpha-effect by adjusting the subsurface meridional flow suitably. The model will be extended in a future paper to include the decay of active regions as an extra source of the diffuse field, which may be necessary to explain the probable phase lag between B-tau and B-phi at lower latitudes.

On the large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the sun - II. The contribution of active regions

Dikpati and Choudhuri (1993, 1995) developed a model for the poleward migration of the weak diffuse magnetic field on the Sun's surface. This field was identified with the poloidal component produced by the solar dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, and its evolution was studied by considering the effects of meridional circulation and turbulent diffusion. The earlier model is extended in this paper by incorporating the flux from, the decay of tilted active regions near the solar surface as an additional source of the poloidal field. This extended model can now explain various low-latitude features in the time-latitude diagram of the weak diffuse fields. These low-latitude features could not be accounted for in the earlier model, which was very successful in modeling the behavior at high latitudes. The time-latitude diagrams show that regions of a particular polarity often have 'tongues' of opposite polarity. Such tongues can be produced in the theoretical model by incorporating fluctuations in the source term arising out of the decaying active regions.

The orientational relaxation of bipolar active regions

In the mean, bipolar active regions are oriented nearly toroidally, according to Hale's polarity law, with a latitude-dependent tilt known as Joy's Law. The tilt angles of individual active regions deviate from this mean behavior and change over time. It has been found that on average the change is toward the mean angle at a rate characteristic of 4.37 days (Howard, 1996). We show that this orientational relaxation is consistent with the standard model of flux tube emergence from a deep dynamo layer. Under this scenario Joy's law results from the Coriolis effect on the rising flux tube (D'Silva and Choudhuri, 1993), and departures from it result from turbulent buffeting of the tubes (Longcope and Fisher, 1996). We show that relaxation toward Joy's angle occurs because the turbulent perturbations relax on shorter time scales than the perturbations from the Coriolis force. The turbulent perturbations relax more rapidly because they are localized to the topmost portion of the convection zone while the Coriolis perturbations are more widely distributed. If a fully-developed active region remains connected to the strong toroidal magnetic field at the base of the convection zone, its tilt will eventually disappear, leaving it aligned perfectly toroidally. On the other hand, if the flux becomes disconnected from the toroidal field the bipole will assume a tilt indicative of the location of disconnection. We compare models which are connected and disconnected from the toroidal field. Only those disconnected at points very deep in the convection zone a-re consistent with observed time scale of orientational relaxation.

The origin of the solar magnetic cycle

After summarizing the relevant observational data, we discuss how a study of flux tube dynamics in the solar convection zone helps us to understand the formation of sunspots. Then we introduce the flux transport dynamo model and assess its success in modelling both the solar cycle and its departures from strictly periodic behaviour.

Is meridional circulation important in modelling irregularities of the solar cycle?

We explore the importance of meridional circulation variations in modelling the irregularities of the solar cycle by using the flux transport dynamo model. We show that a fluctuating meridional circulation can reproduce some features of the solar cycle like the Waldmeier effect and the grand minimum. However, we get all these results only if the value of the turbulent diffusivity in the convection zone is reasonably high.

Origin of grand minima in Sunspot cycles

One of the most striking aspects of the 11-year sunspot cycle is that there have been times in the past when some cycles went missing, a most well-known example of this being the Maunder minimum during 1645-1715. Analyses of cosmogenic isotopes (C-14 and Be-10) indicated that there were about 27 grand minima in the last 11 000 yrs, implying that about 2.7% of the solar cycles had conditions appropriate for forcing the Sun into grand minima. We address the question of how grand minima are produced and specifically calculate the frequency of occurrence of grand minima from a theoretical dynamo model. We assume that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation mechanism and in the meridional circulation produce irregularities of sunspot cycles. Taking these fluctuations to be Gaussian and estimating the values of important parameters from the data of the last 28 solar cycles, we show from our flux transport dynamo model that about 1-4% of the sunspot cycles may have conditions suitable for inducing grand minima.

TURBULENT PUMPING OF MAGNETIC FLUX REDUCES SOLAR CYCLE MEMORY AND THUS IMPACTS PREDICTABILITY OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY

Prediction of the Sun's magnetic activity is important because of its effect on space environment and climate. However, recent efforts to predict the amplitude of the solar cycle have resulted in diverging forecasts with no consensus. Yeates et al. have shown that the dynamical memory of the solar dynamo mechanism governs predictability, and this memory is different for advection- and diffusion-dominated solar convection zones. By utilizing stochastically forced, kinematic dynamo simulations, we demonstrate that the inclusion of downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux reduces the memory of both advection- and diffusion-dominated solar dynamos to only one cycle; stronger pumping degrades this memory further. Thus, our results reconcile the diverging dynamo-model-based forecasts for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. We conclude that reliable predictions for the maximum of solar activity can be made only at the preceding minimum-allowing about five years of advance planning for space weather. For more accurate predictions, sequential data assimilation would be necessary in forecasting models to account for the Sun's short memory.

Fluctuations in the alpha-effect and grand solar minima

The parameters of a special type of alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates support the presence of the Babcock-Leighton alpha-effect on the Sun. Fluctuations of the alpha-effect are also estimated. The fluctuation amplitude appreciably exceeds themean value, and the characteristic time for the fluctuations is comparable to the period of the solar rotation. Fluctuations with the parameters found are included in a numericalmodel for the solar dynamo. Computations show irregular changes in the amplitudes of the magnetic cycles on time scales of centuries and millennia. The calculated statistical characteristics of the grand solar minima and maxima agree with the data on solar activity over the Holocene.

Can Superflares Occur on Our Sun?

Recent observations of Sun-like stars, similar to our Sun in their surface temperature (5600-6000 K) and slow rotation (rotational period > 10 d), using the Kepler satellite by Maehara et al. (2012, Nature, 485, 478) have revealed the existence of superflares (with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg). From statistical analyses of these superflares, it was found that superflares with energy of 10(34) erg occur once in 800 yr, and superflares with 10(35) erg occur once in 5000 yr. In this paper, we examine whether superflares with energy of 10(33)-10(35) erg could occur on the present Sun through the use of simple order-of-magnitude estimates based on current ideas related to the mechanisms of the solar dynamo. If magnetic flux is generated by differential rotation at the base of the convection zone, as assumed in typical dynamo models, it is possible that the present Sun would generate a large sunspot with a total magnetic flux of similar to 2 x 10(23) Mx (= G cm(2)) within one solar cycle period, and lead to superflares with an energy of 10(34) erg. To store a total magnetic flux of similar to 10(24) Mx, necessary for generating 10(35) erg superflares, it would take similar to 40 yr. Hot Jupiters have often been argued to be a necessary ingredient for the generation of superflares, but we found that they do not play any essential role in the generation of magnetic flux in the star itself, if we consider only the magnetic interaction between the star and the hot Jupiter. This seems to be consistent with Maehara et al.'s finding of 148 superflare-generating solar-type stars that do not have a hot Jupiter-like companion. Altogether, our simple calculations, combined with Maehara et al.'s analysis of superflares on Sun-like stars, show that there is a possibility that superflares of 10(34) erg would occur once in 800 yr on our present Sun.

POLAR NETWORK INDEX AS A MAGNETIC PROXY FOR THE SOLAR CYCLE STUDIES

The Sun has a polar magnetic field which oscillates with the 11 yr sunspot cycle. This polar magnetic field is an important component of the dynamo process which operates in the solar convection zone and produces the sunspot cycle. We have direct systematic measurements of the Sun's polar magnetic field only from about the mid-1970s. There are, however, indirect proxies which give us information about this field at earlier times. The Ca-K spectroheliograms taken at the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory during 1904-2007 have now been digitized with 4k x 4k CCD and have higher resolution (similar to 0.86 arcsec) than the other available historical data sets. From these Ca-K spectroheliograms, we have developed a completely new proxy (polar network index, hereafter PNI) for the Sun's polar magnetic field. We calculate PNI from the digitized images using an automated algorithm and calibrate our measured PNI against the polar field as measured by the Wilcox Solar Observatory for the period 1976-1990. This calibration allows us to estimate the polar fields for the earlier period up to 1904. The dynamo calculations performed with this proxy as input data reproduce reasonably well the Sun's magnetic behavior for the past century.

The irregularities of the sunspot cycle and their theoretical modelling

The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most prominent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we introduce the flux transport dynamo model, the currently most successful theoretical model for explaining the 11-year sunspot cycle. Then we analyze the respective roles of nonlinearities and random fluctuations in creating the irregularities. We also discuss how it has recently been realized that the fluctuations in meridional circulation also can be a source of irregularities. We end by pointing out that fluctuations in the poloidal field generation and fluctuations in meridional circulation together can explain the occurrences of grand minima.