Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Flying between Sky Islands: The Effect of Naturally Fragmented Habitat on Butterfly Population Structure

High elevation montane areas are called ``sky islands'' when they occur as a series of high mountains separated by lowland valleys. Different climatic conditions at high elevations makes sky islands a specialized type of habitat, rendering them naturally fragmented compared to more continuous habitat at lower elevations. Species in sky islands face unsuitable climate in the intervening valleys when moving from one montane area to another. The high elevation shola-grassland mosaic in the Western Ghats of southern India form one such sky island complex. The fragmented patches make this area ideal to study the effect of the spatial orientation of suitable habitat patches on population genetic structure of species found in these areas. Past studies have suggested that sky islands tend to have genetically structured populations, possibly due to reduced gene flow between montane areas. To test this hypothesis, we adopted the comparative approach. Using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, we compared population genetic structures of two closely related, similar sized butterfly species: Heteropsis oculus, a high elevation shola-grassland specialist restricted to the southern Western Ghats, and Mycalesis patnia, found more continuously distributed in lower elevations. In all analyses, as per expectation the sky island specialist H. oculus exhibited a greater degree of population genetic structure than M. patnia, implying a difference in geneflow. This difference in geneflow in turn appears to be due to the natural fragmentation of the sky island complexes. Detailed analysis of a subset of H. oculus samples from one sky island complex (the Anamalais) showed a surprising genetic break. A possible reason for this break could be unsuitable conditions of higher temperature and lower rainfall in the intervening valley region. Thus, sky island species are not only restricted by lack of habitat continuity between montane areas, but also by the nature of the intervening habitat.

The influence of debris cover and glacial lakes on the recession of glaciers in Sikkim Himalaya, India

We investigated area changes in glaciers covering an area of similar to 200 km(2) in the Tista basin, Sikkim, Eastern Indian Himalaya, between similar to 1990 and 2010 using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Indian Remote-sensing Satellite (IRS) images and related the changes to debris cover, supraglacial lakes and moraine-dam lakes. The glaciers lost an area of 3.3 +/- 0.8% between 1989/90 and 2010. More detailed analysis revealed an area loss of 2.00 +/- 0.82, 2.56 +/- 0.61 and 2.28 +/- 2.01 km(2) for the periods 1989-97, 1997-2004/05 and 2004-2009/10, respectively. This indicates an accelerated retreat of glaciers after 1997. On further analysis, we observed (1) the formation and expansion of supraglacial lakes on many debris-covered glaciers and (2) the merging of these lakes over time, leading to the development of large moraine-dam lakes. We also observed that debris-covered glaciers with lakes lose a greater area than debris-covered glaciers without lakes and debris-free glaciers. The climatic data for 24 years (1987-2011), measured at the Gangtok meteorological station (1812 m a.s.l.), showed that the region experienced a 1.0 degrees C rise in the summer minimum temperature and a 2.0 degrees C rise in the winter minimum temperature, indicating hotter summers and warmer winters. There was no significant trend in the total annual precipitation. We find that glacier retreat is caused mainly by a temperature increase and that debris-covered glaciers can retreat at a faster rate than debris-free glaciers, if associated with lakes.

A simple model for spatial disaggregation of evaporative fraction: Comparative study with thermal sharpened land surface temperature data over India

[1] Evaporative fraction (EF) is a measure of the amount of available energy at the earth surface that is partitioned into latent heat flux. The currently operational thermal sensors like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on satellite platforms provide data only at 1000 m, which constraints the spatial resolution of EF estimates. A simple model (disaggregation of evaporative fraction (DEFrac)) based on the observed relationship between EF and the normalized difference vegetation index is proposed to spatially disaggregate EF. The DEFrac model was tested with EF estimated from the triangle method using 113 clear sky data sets from the MODIS sensor aboard Terra and Aqua satellites. Validation was done using the data at four micrometeorological tower sites across varied agro-climatic zones possessing different land cover conditions in India using Bowen ratio energy balance method. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of EF estimated at 1000 m resolution using the triangle method was 0.09 for all the four sites put together. The RMSE of DEFrac disaggregated EF was 0.09 for 250 m resolution. Two models of input disaggregation were also tried with thermal data sharpened using two thermal sharpening models DisTrad and TsHARP. The RMSE of disaggregated EF was 0.14 for both the input disaggregation models for 250 m resolution. Moreover, spatial analysis of disaggregation was performed using Landsat-7 (Enhanced Thematic Mapper) ETM+ data over four grids in India for contrasted seasons. It was observed that the DEFrac model performed better than the input disaggregation models under cropped conditions while they were marginally similar under non-cropped conditions.

Observed changes in Himalayan glaciers

In the Himalaya, large areas are covered by glaciers and seasonal snow. They are an important source of water for the Himalayan rivers. In this article, observed changes in glacial extent and mass balance have been discussed. Various studies suggest that most of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating though the rate of retreat varies from glacier to glacier, ranging from a few meters to almost 61 m/year, depending upon the terrain and meteorological parameters. In addition, mapping of almost 11,000 out of 40,000 sq. km of glaciated area, distributed in all major climatic zones of the Himalaya, suggests an almost 13% loss in area in the last 4-5 decades. The glacier mass balance observations and estimates made using methods like field, AAR, ELA and geodetic measurements, suggest a significant increase in mass wastage of Himalayan glaciers in the last 3-4 decades. In the last four decades loss in glacial ice has been estimated at 19 +/- 7 m. This suggests loss of 443 +/- 136 Gt of glacial mass out of a total 3600-4400 Gt of glacial stored water in the Indian Himalaya. This study has also shown that mean loss in glacier mass in the Indian Himalaya is accelerated from -9 +/- 4 to -20 +/- 4 Gt/year between the periods 1975-85 and 2000-2010. The estimate of glacial stored water in the Indian Himalaya is based on glacier inventory on a 1 : 250,000 scale and scaling methods; therefore, we assume uncertainties to be large.

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 +/- 1 Gta(-1), which decreases about sixfold to -35 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face `eventual disappearance' by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.

Do stable isotopes in carbonate cement of Mio-Pleistocene Himalayan sediments record paleoecological and paleoclimatic changes?

Non-pedogenic carbonates, such as carbonate cement and nodules in the sandstones, are quite common in the terrestrial geological record. Unlike pedogenic carbonates, their stable isotope ratios lack investigations for paleo-climatic reconstructions. The present investigation therefore, explores the possibility of use of stable isotope studies of non-pedogenic carbonates from the Mb-Pleistocene Siwalik Group of sediments exposed in the Ramnagar sub-basin of the NW Himalaya. Petrographic studies reveal the dominance of micrite fabric in carbonate nodules both of pedogenic and non-pedogenic samples irrespective of specific stratigraphic unit However, calcite as cement in the sandstones shows the dominance of micrite fabric in the younger in age sediments. Seventy-two non-pedogenic carbonate samples from the carbonate nodules and cement in the Siwalik sandstones, ranging in age between similar to 1 Ma and 12.2 Ma, were analyzed for delta C-13 and delta O-18 values. The delta C-13 values vary from -24.77 parts per thousand to -1.1 parts per thousand and delta O-18 values vary from -15.34 parts per thousand to -7.81 parts per thousand. Pedogenic and non-pedogenic carbonates ranging in age between similar to 1 Ma and 6 Ma have largely similar delta C-13 values and the range of delta C-13 values indicate the dominance of C-4 type of vegetation. However, unlike pedogenic carbonates which showed the dominance of C-3 type of vegetation pre- 7 Ma on the basis of delta C-13 -depleted isotopic values (Singh et al., 2011), delta C-13 values are largely enriched in the corresponding aged non-pedogenic carbonates revealing no information on specific type of vegetation. Likewise, paleoprecipitational reconstructions from delta O-18 values in pedogenic carbonates showed a progressive increase in aridity from similar to 12 Ma to recent excluding short term increases in rainfall/monsoon intensity at around 10 Ma, 5 Ma, and 1.8 Ma (Singh et al., 2012). On the contrary, such reconstructions are not possible from the delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates and indeed the delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates are largely depleted to as much as 6 parts per thousand from the corresponding pedogenic carbonates. Such differences in delta C-13 and delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates from pedogenic carbonates are primarily due to the dependence of the former on groundwater conditions responsible for precipitating carbonate. Further, a comparison of isotopic values between non-pedogenic and pedogenic carbonates can be interpreted that post-6 Ma and pre-6 Ma non-pedogenic carbonates were largely formed by shallow and deep groundwater conditions respectively. The result of these investigative studies therefore, suggests that the stable delta C-13 and delta O-18 values of non-pedogenic carbonates, unlike the pedogenic carbonates and irrespective of nature of calcite fabric, showed their little importance in paleoclimatic and paleoecological reconstructions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Impacts of modern transitions on thermal comfort in vernacular dwellings in warm-humid climate of Sugganahalli (India)

Sugganahalli, a rural vernacular community in a warm-humid region in South India, is under transition towards adopting modern construction practices. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete (RCC)/tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Vernacular architecture evolves adopting local resources in response to the local climate adopting passive solar designs. This paper investigates the effectiveness of passive solar elements on the indoor thermal comfort by adopting modern climate-responsive design strategies. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Age-old traditional design considerations were found to concur with modern understanding into bio-climatic response and climate-responsiveness. Modern transitions were found to increase the average indoor temperatures in excess of 7 degrees C. Such transformations tend to shift the indoor conditions to a psychrometric zone that is likely to require active air-conditioning. Also, the surveyed thermal sensation votes were found to lie outside the extended thermal comfort boundary for hot developing countries provided by Givoni in the bio-climatic chart.

Cryptic species and Miocene diversification of Palaearctic naked-toed geckos (Squamata: Gekkonidae) in the Indian dry zone

We sampled Palaearctic naked-toed geckos from across their range in India and used two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes to reconstruct relationships within a global phylogeny. Published sequences of Peninsular Indian Hemidactylus allow us to contrast these two groups in dating analyses - providing insights into the history of the Indian dry zone. Palaearctic naked-toed geckos first moved onto the Indian Plate in the Oligocene, with higher-level diversification probably linked to collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates, and subsequent dispersal into-India and diversification with increasing Miocene aridity. An independent gekkonid radiation with species in the dry zone, Hemidactylus diversified during the same period in Peninsular India. Our results demonstrate that dry zone taxa across India may date back to at least the Miocene, with a potential historical climatic barrier between the Indus and Peninsular Indian Divisions. `Cyrtopodion' aravallense is revealed to be a complex with seven genetically and environmentally divergent lineages that began diversifying in the late Miocene, congruent with increased aridity in north-western India. This discovery of cryptic diversity in the Indian dry zone represents the first terrestrial vertebrate radiation from north-western central India and highlights how little we understand of the regions' biodiversity, emphasizing the need for systematic geographic sampling and multiline evidence to reveal true patterns of diversity. The ancestor of `Cyrtopodion' aravallense came into the nascent Indian dry zone in the Miocene and has since diversified, potentially in the absence of any sympatric scansorial rupicolous geckos. Cyrtopodion scabrum represents a unique case of commensalism and shows phylogeographic structure in its presumed native range. The taxonomic implications of our study include a number of undescribed species, recognition of `Cyrtopodion' as a distinct lineage and the non-monophyly of Altiphylax.

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass-extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative C-13 anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high-resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn-extinction and post-extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal-beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.

Rapid divergence of ecotypes of an invasive plant

Invasive species demonstrate rapid evolution within a very short period of time allowing one to understand the underlying mechanism(s). Lantana camara, a highly invasive plant of the tropics and subtropics, has expanded its range and successfully established itself almost throughout India. In order to uncover the processes governing the invasion dynamics, 218 individuals from various locations across India were characterized with six microsatellites. By integrating genetic data with niche modelling, we examined the effect of drift and environmental selection on genetic divergence. We found multiple genetic clusters that were non-randomly distributed across space. Spatial autocorrelation revealed a strong fine-scale structure, i.e. isolation by distance. In addition, we obtained evidence of inhibitory effects of selection on gene flow, i.e. isolation by environmental distance. Perhaps, local adaptation in response to selection is offsetting gene flow and causing the populations to diverge. Niche models suggested that temperature and precipitation play a major role in the observed spatial distribution of this plant. Based on a non-random distribution of clusters, unequal gene flow among them and different bioclimatic niche requirements, we concluded that the emergence of ecotypes represented by two genetic clusters is underway. They may be locally adapted to specific climatic conditions, and perhaps at the very early stages of ecological divergence.

Assessing impact of material transition and thermal comfort models on embodied and operational energy in vernacular dwellings (India)

Vernacular dwellings are well-suited climate-responsive designs that adopt local materials and skills to support comfortable indoor environments in response to local climatic conditions. These naturally-ventilated passive dwellings have enabled civilizations to sustain even in extreme climatic conditions. The design and physiological resilience of the inhabitants have coevolved to be attuned to local climatic and environmental conditions. Such adaptations have perplexed modern theories in human thermal-comfort that have evolved in the era of electricity and air-conditioned buildings. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Types of energy use associated with a buildings life cycle include its embodied energy, operational and maintenance energy, demolition and disposal energy. Embodied Energy (EE) represents total energy consumption for construction of building, i.e., embodied energy of building materials, material transportation energy and building construction energy. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. Operational energy (OE) in buildings mainly contributed by space conditioning and lighting requirements, depends on the climatic conditions of the region and comfort requirements of the building occupants. Less energy intensive natural materials are used for traditional buildings and the EE of traditional buildings is low. Transition in use of materials causes significant impact on embodied energy of vernacular dwellings. Use of manufactured, energy intensive materials like brick, cement, steel, glass etc. contributes to high embodied energy in these dwellings. This paper studies the increase in EE of the dwelling attributed to change in wall materials. Climatic location significantly influences operational energy in dwellings. Buildings located in regions experiencing extreme climatic conditions would require more operational energy to satisfy the heating and cooling energy demands throughout the year. Traditional buildings adopt passive techniques or non-mechanical methods for space conditioning to overcome the vagaries of extreme climatic variations and hence less operational energy. This study assesses operational energy in traditional dwelling with regard to change in wall material and climatic location. OE in the dwellings has been assessed for hot-dry, warm humid and moderate climatic zones. Choice of thermal comfort models is yet another factor which greatly influences operational energy assessment in buildings. The paper adopts two popular thermal-comfort models, viz., ASHRAE comfort standards and TSI by Sharma and Ali to investigate thermal comfort aspects and impact of these comfort models on OE assessment in traditional dwellings. A naturally ventilated vernacular dwelling in Sugganahalli, a village close to Bangalore (India), set in warm - humid climate is considered for present investigations on impact of transition in building materials, change in climatic location and choice of thermal comfort models on energy in buildings. The study includes a rigorous real time monitoring of the thermal performance of the dwelling. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Results of the study and appraisal for appropriate thermal comfort standards for computing operational energy has been presented and discussed in this paper. (c) 2014 K.I. Praseeda. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Discerning heat transfer in building materials

The function of a building is to ensure safety and thermal comfort for healthy living conditions. Buildings primarily comprise an envelope, which acts as an interface separating the external environment from the indoors environment. The building envelope is primarily responsible for regulating indoor thermal comfort in response to external climatic conditions. It usually comprises a configuration of building materials to thus far provide requisite structural performance. However, studies into building-envelope configurations to provide a particular thermal performance are limited. As the building envelope is exposed to the external environment there will be heat and moisture transfer to the indoor environment through it. The overall phenomenon of heat and moisture transfer depends on the microstructure and configuration within the building material. Further, thermal property of a material is generally dependent on its microstructure, which comprises a network of pores and particles arranged in a definite structure. Thermal behaviour of a building material thus depends on the thermal conductivities of the solid particles, pore micro-structure and its constituent fluid (air and/or moisture). The thermal response of a building envelope is determined by the thermal characteristics of the individual building materials and its configuration. Understanding the heat transfer influenced by the complex networks of pores and particles is a relatively new study in the area of building climatic-response. The current study reviews the heat-transfer mechanisms that determine the thermal performance of a building material attributed to its micro-structure. A theoretical basis for the same is being evolved and its relevance in regulating heat-transfer through building envelopes, walls in particular, is reviewed in this paper. (C) 2014 N.C. Balaji. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

A phylogeny of the only ground-dwelling radiation of Cyrtodactylus (Squamata, Gekkonidae): diversification of Geckoella across peninsular India and Sri Lanka

The subgenus Geckoella, the only ground-dwelling radiation within Cyrtodactylus, closely overlaps in distribution with brookii group Hemidactylus in peninsular India and Sri Lanka. Both groups have Oligocene origins, the latter with over thrice as many described species. The striking difference in species richness led us to believe that Geckoella diversity is underestimated, and we sampled for Geckoella across peninsular India. A multi-locus phylogeny reveals Geckoella diversity is hugely underestimated, with at least seven undescribed species, doubling previously known richness. Strikingly, the new species correspond to cryptic lineages within described Indian species (complexes); a number of these endemic lineages from the hills of peninsular India outside the Western Ghats, highlighting the undocumented diversity of the Indian dry zone. The Geckoella phylogeny demonstrates deep splits between the Indian species and Sri Lankan G. triedrus, and between Indian dry and wet zone clades, dating back to the late Oligocene. Geckoella and brookii group Hemidactylus show contrasting diversification patterns. Geckoella shows signals of niche conservatism and appears to have retained its ancestral forest habitat. The late Miocene burst in speciation in Geckoella may be linked to the expansion of rain forests during the mid-Miocene climatic optimum and subsequent fragmentation with increasing late Miocene aridification. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.