The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Giant magnetoresistance in bulk samples of LaMnO3 with varying Mn4+ content

Magnetoresistance (MR) in bulk samples of LaMnO3 has been investigated by varying the Mn4+ content from 10 to 33 per cent by chemical means, without aliovalent doping. With the increase in Mn4+ content, the structure of LaMnO3 changes first from orthorhombic to rhombohedral and then to cubic and the material becomes increasingly ferromagnetic, exhibiting a resistivity maximum akin to an insulator-metal transition at T-Peak, just below the ferromagnetic T-c. The magnitude of MR is highest in the cubic sample (with 33% Mn4+) around the T-Peak, and negligible in the non-magnetic orthorhombic sample (12% Mn4+).

In vitro plant regeneration from different seedling explants of blackgram [Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper] via organogenesis

Callus induction and morphogenesis from different blackgram explants were tested on MS basal medium supplemented with B5 vitamins, IAA, NAA, IBA, KIN and BAP individually and in combinations. The explants were hypocotyl, epicotyl, axillary bud, cotyledonary node and immature leaf. The optimal levels of the frequency of callus induction was 22.8 mu M of IAA or 16.1 mu M NAA and in combination with 2.2 mu M of BAP. Among the seedling explants, hypocotyl was found to be more efficient in producing callus. Shoots mere induced from callus cultures of hypocotyls, epicotyls, axillary bud, cotyledonary node and immature leaf with varying frequencies in the medium containing KIN (2.3-9.3 mu M) or BAP (2.2-8.8 mu M) and in combination with IAA (2.8 mu M) or NAA (2.6 mu M). Multiple shoots were obtained using cotyledonary node segments. The regenerated shoots rooted best on MS basal medium containing 9.8 mu M IBA. Seventy three per cent of the shoots produced roots, and 80-85% of the plantlets survived under greenhouse condition.

Solvation dynamics of a quadrupolar solute in dipolar liquids

A microscopic calculation of solvation dynamics of dipolar and quadrupolar solutes in liquid water and acetonitrile is presented. The solvation is found to he biphasic. The calculated solvation time correlation function of ionic quadrupolar solute (K+) in water is in good agreement with re cent computer simulation results. Present study reveals some interesting aspects of quadrupolar solvation dynamics which differ significantly from that of ionic and dipolar solvation.

Noise and outlier removal from jet engine health signals using weighted FIR median hybrid filters

The removal of noise and outliers from measurement signals is a major problem in jet engine health monitoring. Topical measurement signals found in most jet engines include low rotor speed, high rotor speed. fuel flow and exhaust gas temperature. Deviations in these measurements from a baseline 'good' engine are often called measurement deltas and the health signals used for fault detection, isolation, trending and data mining. Linear filters such as the FIR moving average filter and IIR exponential average filter are used in the industry to remove noise and outliers from the jet engine measurement deltas. However, the use of linear filters can lead to loss of critical features in the signal that can contain information about maintenance and repair events that could be used by fault isolation algorithms to determine engine condition or by data mining algorithms to learn valuable patterns in the data, Non-linear filters such as the median and weighted median hybrid filters offer the opportunity to remove noise and gross outliers from signals while preserving features. In this study. a comparison of traditional linear filters popular in the jet engine industry is made with the median filter and the subfilter weighted FIR median hybrid (SWFMH) filter. Results using simulated data with implanted faults shows that the SWFMH filter results in a noise reduction of over 60 per cent compared to only 20 per cent for FIR filters and 30 per cent for IIR filters. Preprocessing jet engine health signals using the SWFMH filter would greatly improve the accuracy of diagnostic systems. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Optimum design of a helicopter rotor for low vibration using aeroelastic analysis and response surface methods

An aeroelastic analysis based on finite elements in space and time is used to model the helicopter rotor in forward flight. The rotor blade is represented as an elastic cantilever beam undergoing flap and lag bending, elastic torsion and axial deformations. The objective of the improved design is to reduce vibratory loads at the rotor hub that are the main source of helicopter vibration. Constraints are imposed on aeroelastic stability, and move limits are imposed on the blade elastic stiffness design variables. Using the aeroelastic analysis, response surface approximations are constructed for the objective function (vibratory hub loads). It is found that second order polynomial response surfaces constructed using the central composite design of the theory of design of experiments adequately represents the aeroelastic model in the vicinity of the baseline design. Optimization results show a reduction in the objective function of about 30 per cent. A key accomplishment of this paper is the decoupling of the analysis problem and the optimization problems using response surface methods, which should encourage the use of optimization methods by the helicopter industry. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic study of oxygen in liquid lead tin alloys

The activity coefficients of oxygen in liquid lead-tin alloys have been measured between 550 and 1100°C by use of solid oxide galvanic cells Pt, Ni-NiO I Zr02 Solid electrolyte I 0 (Pb + Sn), Cermet, Pt Pt, Fe-FeO I Zr02 Solid electrolyte I O(Pb + Sn), Cermet, Pt Alcock and Richardson's quasi-chemical equation, with the coordination number of atoms set to 2, is found to predict successfully the activity coefficients of oxygen in these alloys.The relative partial molar enthalpy and entropy of oxygen ?t 1 atom per cent in the alloys have been calculated from ttva variation of the activity coefficient with temperature. The addition of tin to an unsaturated solution of oxygen in lead is shown to decrease significantly both the partial molar enthalpy and entropy of oxygen. As the measurements were restricted to a narrow range between 750-1100'C in lead-rich alloys, however, the pronounced variation of the partial molar enthalpy of oxygen with temperature at constant alloy composition predicted by the quasi-chemical model could not be verified.

Solubility and activity of oxygen in liquid gallium and gallium copper alloys

The solubility of oxygen in liquid gallium in the temperature range 775 –1125 °C and in liquid gallium-copper alloys at 1100 °C, in equilibrium with β-Ga2O3, has been measured by an isopiestic equilibrium technique. The solubility of oxygen in pure gallium is given by the equation log (at.% O) = −7380/T + 4.264 (±0.03) Using recently measured values for the standard free energy of formation of β-Ga2O3 and assuming that oxygen obeys Sievert's law up to the saturation limit, the standard free energy of solution of oxygen in liquid gallium may be calculated : View the MathML sourceΔ°298 = −52 680 + 6.53T (±200) cal where the standard state for dissolved oxygen is an infinitely dilute solution in which the activity is equal to atomic per cent. The effect of copper on the activity of oxygen dissolved in liquid gallium is found to be in good agreement with that predicted by a recent quasichemical model in which it was assumed that each oxygen is interstitially coordinated to four metal atoms and that the nearest neighbour metal atoms lose approximately half their metallic cohesive energies.

Solubility and activity of oxygen in liquid indium and copper indium alloys

The solubility of oxygen in liquid indium in the temperature range 650–820 °C and in liquid copper-indium alloys at 1100 °C in equilibrium with indium sesquioxide has been measured by a phase equilibration technique. The solubility of oxygen in pure indium is given by the relation log(at.% O) = −4726/T + 3.73 (±0.08) Using the recently measured values for the standard free energy of formation of In2O3 and assuming that oxygen obeys Sievert's law up to saturation, the standard free energy of solution of molecular oxygen in liquid indium is calculated as View the MathML sourceΔG°= −51 440 + 8.07 T (±500) cal where the standard state for dissolved oxygen is an infinitely dilute solution in which activity is equal to atomic per cent. The effect of indium additions on the activity coefficient of oxygen dissolved in liquid copper was measured by a solid oxide galvanic cell. The interaction parameter ϵ0In is given by View the MathML source The experimentally determined variation of the activity coefficient of oxygen in dilute solution in Cu-In alloys is in fair agreement with that predicted by a quasichemical model in which each oxygen atom is assumed to be interstitially coordinated to four metal atoms and the nearest neighbour metal atoms are assumed to lose approximately half their metallic cohesive energies.

Aids in the design of microstrip components I: Getsinger's chart

Charts relating the capacitance to the width, spacing, thickness and height above the ground plane of coupled microstrips have been obtained. These are used to design hairpin line and hybrid hairpin line filters as well as multiplexers using microstrip comb line filters. The experimental results agree reasonably well with the design specifications. Getsinger's original charts for parallel coupled bars between parallel plates have been formulated for the microstrip case. Corresponding charts relating the capacitances to the width, spacing, thickness and height above the ground plane of coupled microstrips have been obtained. Examples of the use of these charts are shown in the design of hairpin lines and hybrid hairpin line filters as well as multiplexers using comb line filters. The hairpin line/hybrid hairpin line filters were designed to operate at a central frequency of 9÷5 GHz with 11 per cent bandwidth and 0÷5 dB ripple. The three filters constituting the comb line filters have center frequencies of 2÷4, 3÷0 and 3÷6 GHz. The components so designed were fabricated and tested. The dielectric used for the microstrip was teflon. Experimental curves for the attenuation (insertion loss) and VSWR are given. The design specifications arc satisfied quite well.

Monitoring Himalayan cryosphere using remote sensing techniques

In the Himalayas, large area is covered by glaciers, seasonal snow and changes in its extent can influence availability of water in the Himalayan Rivers. In this paper, changes in glacial extent, glacial mass balance and seasonal snow cover have been discussed. Field and satellite based investigations suggest, most of the Himalayan glaciers are retreating though the rate of retreat is varying from glacier to glacier, ranging from few meters to almost 50 meters per year, depending upon the numerous glacial, terrain and meteorological parameters. Retreat was estimated for 1868 glaciers in eleven basins distributed across the Indian Himalaya since 1962 to 2001/02. Estimates show an overall reduction in glacier area from 6332 to 5329 sq km, an overall deglaciation of 16 percent.Snow line at the end of ablation season on the Chhota Shigri glacier suggests a change in altitude from 4900 to 5200 m from late 1970’s to the present. Seasonal snow cover monitoring of the Himalaya has shown large amounts of snow cover depletion in early part of winter, i.e. from October to December. For many basins located in lower altitude and in south of Pir Panjal range, snow ablation was observed through out the winter season. In addition, average stream runoff of the Baspa basin during the month of December shows an increase by 75 per cent. This combination of glacial retreat, negative mass balance, early melting of seasonal snow cover and winter time increase in stream runoff suggest an influence of climate change on the Himalayan cryosphere.

Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Low cost calibrated mechanical noisemaker for hearing screening of neonates in resource constrained settings

Background & objectives: There is a need to develop an affordable and reliable tool for hearing screening of neonates in resource constrained, medically underserved areas of developing nations. This study valuates a strategy of health worker based screening of neonates using a low cost mechanical calibrated noisemaker followed up with parental monitoring of age appropriate auditory milestones for detecting severe-profound hearing impairment in infants by 6 months of age. Methods: A trained health worker under the supervision of a qualified audiologist screened 425 neonates of whom 20 had confirmed severe-profound hearing impairment. Mechanical calibrated noisemakers of 50, 60, 70 and 80 dB (A) were used to elicit the behavioural responses. The parents of screened neonates were instructed to monitor the normal language and auditory milestones till 6 months of age. This strategy was validated against the reference standard consisting of a battery of tests - namely, auditory brain stem response (ABR), otoacoustic emissions (OAE) and behavioural assessment at 2 years of age. Bayesian prevalence weighted measures of screening were calculated. Results: The sensitivity and specificity was high with least false positive referrals for. 70 and 80 dB (A) noisemakers. All the noisemakers had 100 per cent negative predictive value. 70 and 80 dB (A) noisemakers had high positive likelihood ratios of 19 and 34, respectively. The probability differences for pre- and post- test positive was 43 and 58 for 70 and 80 dB (A) noisemakers, respectively. Interpretation & conclusions: In a controlled setting, health workers with primary education can be trained to use a mechanical calibrated noisemaker made of locally available material to reliably screen for severe-profound hearing loss in neonates. The monitoring of auditory responses could be done by informed parents. Multi-centre field trials of this strategy need to be carried out to examine the feasibility of community health care workers using it in resource constrained settings of developing nations to implement an effective national neonatal hearing screening programme.

Experiments on and thermodynamic analysis of a turbocharged engine with producer gas as fuel

This article presents the studies conducted on turbocharged producer gas engines designed originally for natural gas (NG) as the fuel. Producer gas, whose properties like stoichiometric ratio, calorific value, laminar flame speed, adiabatic flame temperature, and related parameters that differ from those of NG, is used as the fuel. Two engines having similar turbochargers are evaluated for performance. Detailed measurements on the mass flowrates of fuel and air, pressures and temperatures at various locations on the turbocharger were carried out. On both the engines, the pressure ratio across the compressor was measured to be 1.40 +/- 0.05 and the density ratio to be 1.35 +/- 0.05 across the turbocharger with after-cooler. Thermodynamic analysis of the data on both the engines suggests a compressor efficiency of 70 per cent. The specific energy consumption at the peak load is found to be 13.1 MJ/kWh with producer gas as the fuel. Compared with the naturally aspirated mode, the mass flow and the peak load in the turbocharged after-cooled condition increased by 35 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. The pressure ratios obtained with the use of NG and producer gas are compared with corrected mass flow on the compressor map.

Adaptation of small capacity natural gas engine for producer gas operation

This article addresses the adaptation of a low-power natural gas engine for using producer gas as a fuel. The 5.9 L natural gas engine with a compression ratio of 10.5:1, rated at 55 kW shaft power, delivered 30 kW using producer gas as fuel in the naturally aspirated mode. Optimal ignition timing for peak power was found to be 20 degrees before top dead centre. Air-to-fuel ratio (A/F) was found to be 1.2 +/- 0.1 over a range of loads. Critical evaluation of the energy flows in the engine resulted in identifying losses and optimizing the engine cooling. The specific fuel consumption was found to be 1.2 +/- 0.1 kg of biomass per kilowatt hour. A reduction of 40 per cent in brake mean effective pressure was observed compared with natural gas operation. Governor response to load variations has been studied with respect to frequency recovery time. The study also attempts to adopt a turbocharger for higher power output. Preliminary results suggest a possibility of about 30 per cent increase in the output.