Assessing the mitigation potential of forestry activities in a changing climate: A case study for Karnataka

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol allows Afforestation and Reforestation (A/R) projects as mitigation activities to offset the CO2 in the atmosphere whilst simultaneously seeking to ensure sustainable development for the host country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified by the Government of India in August 2002 and one of India's objectives in acceding to the Protocol was to fulfil the prerequisites for implementation of projects under the CDM in accordance with national sustainable priorities. The objective of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of using large-scale forestry projects under the CDM in achieving its twin goals using Karnataka State as a case study. The Generalized Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (GCOMAP) Model is used to observe the effect of varying carbon prices on the land available for A/R projects. The model is coupled with outputs from the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to incorporate the impacts of temperature rise due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B and B1. With rising temperatures and CO2, vegetation productivity is increased under A2 and A1B scenarios and reduced under B1. Results indicate that higher carbon price paths produce higher gains in carbon credits and accelerate the rate at which available land hits maximum capacity thus acting as either an incentive or disincentive for landowners to commit their lands to forestry mitigation projects. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect of CO2 causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 ± 0.02 K (± 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO2 on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 ± 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 ± 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO2 increases global runoff by 5.2 ± 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 ± 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 ± 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO2-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO2-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO2.

Coupled ocean-atmosphere inter-decadal modes in the tropics

Homogencous upper air data for 50 years (1949-1998) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis project, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure are used to bring out the three dimensional structure of two dominant decadal/multi-decadal variations in the tropics. The global three dimensional modes represent generalized forms of inter-decadal modes studied earlier only with surface data. In the vertical, both modes show approximate first baroclinic structures over the tropics. The Walker circulation associated with the multidecadal mode has a wavenumber two structure in the zonal direction. It is shown that the magnitude of major ascending and descending motions associated with the multi-decadal Hadley and Walker circulations, are comparable to those associated with the dominant inter-annual mode. Implications of these large scale global circulations associated with the low frequency oscillations in modulating regional climate on a inter-annual time scale are discussed.

Dual wavelength CO2-N2-CS2 gasdynamic laser

A new method for producing simultaneous lasing at 10.6 and 38.3 microns in a CO2-N2-CS2 gasdynamic laser is presented. The theoretical analysis predicts small-signal gain values of the order 0.21/m for 10.6-micron lasing in CO2 molecules and 0.085/m for 38.3-micron lasing in CS2 molecules, indicating the possibility of dual wave lasing.

Convergence feedback and unstable low frequency oscillations in a simple coupled ocean‐atmosphere model

The role of convergence feedback on the stability of a coupled ocean‐atmosphere system is studied using model III of Hirst (1986). It is shown that the unstable coupled mode found by Hirst is greatly modified by the convergence feedback. If the convergence feedback strength exceeds a critical value, several new unstable intraseasonal modes are also introduced. These modes have very weak dependence on the wave number. These results may explain the behaviour of some coupled models and to some extent provide a mechanism for the observed aperiodicity of the El‐Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

Propagation of quasi-simple waves in a compressible rotating atmosphere

A class of self-propagating linear and nonlinear travelling wave solutions for compressible rotating fluid is studied using both numerical and analytical techiques. It is shown that, in general, a three dimensional linear wave is not periodic. However, for some range of wave numbers depending on rotation, horizontally propagating waves are periodic. When the rotation ohgr is equal to $$\sqrt {(\gamma - 1)/(4\gamma )}$$ , all horizontal waves are periodic. Here, gamma is the ratio of specific heats. The analytical study is based on phase space analysis. It reveals that the quasi-simple waves are periodic only in some plane, even when the propagation is horizontal, in contrast to the case of non-rotating flows for which there is a single parameter family of periodic solutions provided the waves propagate horizontally. A classification of the singular points of the governing differential equations for quasi-simple waves is also appended.

Long waves in inviscid compressible atmospheres: Isothermal atmosphere

Solitary waves and cnoidal waves have been found in an adiabatic compressible atmosphere which, under ambient conditions, has winds, and is isothermal. The theory is illustrated with an example for which the background wind is linearly increasing. It is found that the number of possible critical speeds of the flow depends crucially on whether the Richardson number is greater or less than one‐fourth.

Long waves in inviscid compressible atmospheres: Isothermal atmosphere

Solitary waves and cnoidal waves have been found in an adiabatic compressible atmosphere which, under ambient conditions, has winds, and is isothermal. The theory is illustrated with an example for which the background wind is linearly increasing. It is found that the number of possible critical speeds of the flow depends crucially on whether the Richardson number is greater or less than one‐fourth.

Structural Relationships in 2,3-Bis-n-decyloxyanthracene and 12-Hydroxystearic Acid Molecular Gels and Aerogels Processed in Supercritical CO2

Supercritical carbon dioxide is used to prepare aerogels of two reference molecular organogelators, 2,3-bis-n-decyloxyanthracene (DDOA) (luminescent molecule) and 12-hydroxystearic acid (HSA). Electron microscopy reveals the fibrillar morphology of the aggregates generated by the protocol. SAXS and SANS measurements show that DDOA aerogels are crystalline materials exhibiting three morphs: (1) arrangements of the crystalline solid (2D p6m), (2) a second hexagonal morph slightly more compact, and (3) a packing specific of the fibers in the gel. Aggregates specific of the aerogel (volume fraction being typically phi approximate to 0.60) are developed over larger distances (similar to 1000 angstrom) and bear fewer defaults and residual strains than aggregates in the crystalline and gel phases. Porod, Scherrer and Debye-Bueche analyses of the scattering data have been performed. The first five diffraction peaks show small variations in position and intensity assigned to the variation of the number of fibers and their degree of vicinity within hexagonal bundles of the related SAFIN according to the Oster model. Conclusions are supported by the guidelines offered by the analysis of the situation in HSA aerogels for which the diffraction pattern can be described by two coexisting lamellar-like arrangements. The porosity of the aerogel, as measured by its specific surface extracted from the scattering invariant analysis, is only 1.8 times less than that of the swollen gel and is characteristic of a very porous material.

On the Existence of Hydromagnetic Interface Waves in a Structured Atmosphere

The conditions under which the hydromagnetic interface waves can exist at a magnetic interface is deduced. Using these conditions, it is shown that a slow interface wave with a phase velocity about 5Km/s and a fast interface wave with a phase velocity 6.5 to 8km/s at the photospheric level can exist.

Mechanisms of variability and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

A conceptual model is proposed to explain the observed aperiodicity in the short term climate fluctuations of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system. This is based on the evidence presented here that the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system sustains a low frequency inter-annual mode and a host of higher frequency intra-seasonal unstable modes. At long wavelengths, the low frequency mode is dominant while at short wavelengths, the high frequency modes are dominant resulting in the co-existence of a long wave low frequency mode with some short wave intra-seasonal modes in the tropical coupled system. It is argued that due to its long wavelength, the low frequency mode would behave like a linear oscillator while the higher frequency short wave modes would be nonlinear. The conceptual model envisages that an interaction between the low frequency linear oscillator and the high frequency nonlinear oscillations results in the observed aperiodicity of the tropical coupled system. This is illustrated by representing the higher frequency intra-seasonal oscillations by a nonlinear low order model which is then coupled to a linear oscillator with a periodicity of four years. The physical mechanism resulting in the aperiodicity in the low frequency oscillations and implications of these results on the predictability of the coupled system are discussed.

CO2-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO (2) -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO2-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO2 concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO2-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO2 levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO2 concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO2-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO2-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO2 emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

Bispectra of A Tropical Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

It has recently been proposed that the broad spectrum of interannual variability in the tropics with a peak around four years results from an interaction between the linear low-frequency oscillatory mode of the coupled system and the nonlinear higher-frequency modes of the system. In this study we determine the bispectrum of the conceptual model consisting of a nonlinear low-order model coupled to a linear oscillator for various values of the coupling constants.