Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an ``adaptive threshold,'' i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Adaptive evolution of a novel avian-origin influenza A/H7N9 virus

In China, the recent outbreak of novel influenza A/H7N9 virus has been assumed to be severe, and it may possibly turn brutal in the near future. In order to develop highly protective vaccines and drugs for the A/H7N9 virus, it is critical to find out the selection pressure of each amino acid site. In the present study, six different statistical methods consisting of four independent codon-based maximum likelihood (CML) methods, one hierarchical Bayesian (HB) method and one branch-site (BS) method, were employed to determine if each amino acid site of A/H7N9 virus is under natural selection pressure. Functions for both positively and negatively selected sites were inferred by annotating these sites with experimentally verified amino acid sites. Comprehensively, the single amino acid site 627 of PB2 protein was inferred as positively selected and it function was identified as a T-cell epitope (TCE). Among the 26 negatively selected amino acid sites of PB2, PB1, PA, HA, NP, NA, M1 and NS2 proteins, only 16 amino acid sites were identified to be involved in TCEs. In addition, 7 amino acid sites including, 608 and 609 of PA, 480 of NP, and 24, 25, 109 and 205 of M1, were identified to be involved in both B-cell epitopes (BCEs) and TCEs. Conversely, the function of positions 62 of PA, and, 43 and 113 of HA was unknown. In conclusion, the seven amino acid sites engaged in both BCEs and TCEs were identified as highly suitable targets, as these sites will be predicted to play a principal role in inducing strong humoral and cellular immune responses against A/H7N9 virus. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.