Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Characterising weather patterns associated with fire in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India

Anthropogenic fires in seasonally dry tropical forests are a regular occurrence during the dry season. Forest managers in India, who presently follow a fire suppression policy in such forests, would benefit from a system of assessing the potential risk to fire on a particular day. We examined the relationship between weather variables (seasonal rainfall, relative humidity, temperature) and days of fire during the dry seasons of 2004-2010, based on MODIS fire incident data in the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mudumalai in the Western Ghats, southern India. Logistic regression analysis showed that high probabilities of a fire day, indicating successful ignition of litter and grass fuel on the forest floor, were associated with low levels of early dry season rainfall, low daily average relative humidity and high daily average temperatures. These weather conditions are representative of low moisture levels of fine fuels, suggesting that the occurrence of fire is moderated by environmental conditions that reduce the flammability of fine fuels in the dry tropics. We propose a quantitative framework for assessing risk of a fire day to assist forest managers in anticipating fire occurrences in this seasonally dry tropical forest, and possibly for those across South Asia.

Estimation of ice thickness using surface velocities and slope: case study at Gangotri Glacier, India

We estimate the distribution of ice thickness for a Himalayan glacier using surface velocities, slope and the ice flow law. Surface velocities over Gangotri Glacier were estimated using sub-pixel correlation of Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Velocities range from similar to 14-85 m a(-1) in the accumulation region to similar to 20-30 ma(-1) near the snout. Depth profiles were calculated using the equation of laminar flow. Thickness varies from similar to 540 m in the upper reaches to similar to 50-60 m near the snout. The volume of the glacier is estimated to be 23.2 +/- 4.2 km(3).

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0–45°N and 60–105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earth- quakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/*sreevals/resource.htm.

Imprints of Archean to Neoproterozoic crustal processes in the Madurai Block, Southern India

Madurai Block, the largest crustal block in the Southern Granulite Terrane (SGT) of Peninsular India, preserves the imprints of multistage tectonic evolution. Here, we present U-Pb and Hf isotope data on zircons from a charnockite-granite suite in the north-western part of this block. The oscillatory zoning, and the LREE to HREE enriched patterns of the zircons with positive Ce and negative Eu anomalies suggest that the zircon cores are of magmatic origin, with ages in the range of 2634-2435 Ma implying Neoarchean-Paleoproterozoic magmatism followed by subsequent metamorphism and protocontinent formation in the north-western part of the Madurai Block. A regional 550-500 Ma metamorphic overprint is also preserved in the zircons coinciding with the final amalgamation of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Hf isotopic data suggest that the granite and charnockite were derived from isotopically heterogeneous juvenile crustal domains and the charnockites show a significant contribution of mantle-derived components. Therefore, the Hf isotopic data reflect mixing of crustal and mantle-derived sources for the generation of Neoarchean crust in the north-western Madurai Block, possibly in a suprasubduction zone setting during continent building processes. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE LEGACY OF GN RAMACHANDRAN AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRUCTURAL BIOLOGY IN INDIA

G.N. Ramachandran is among the founding fathers of structural molecular biology. He made pioneering contributions in computational biology, modelling and what we now call bioinformatics. The triple helical coiled coil structure of collagen proposed by him forms the basis of much of collagen research at the molecular level. The Ramachandran map remains the simplest descriptor and tool for validation of protein structures. He has left his imprint on almost all aspects of biomolecular conformation. His contributions in the area of theoretical crystallography have been outstanding. His legacy has provided inspiration for the further development of structural biology in India. After a pause, computational biology and bioinformatics are in a resurgent phase. One of the two schools established by Ramachandran pioneered the development of macromolecular crystallography, which has now grown into an important component of modern biological research in India. Macromolecular NMR studies in the country are presently gathering momentum. Structural biology in India is now poised to again approach heights of the kind that Ramachandran conquered more than a generation ago.

Fish distribution dynamics in the Aghanashini estuary of Uttara Kannada, west coast of India

Fish diversity (77 species) in the Aghanashini River estuary of the Indian west coast is linked to variable salinity conditions and zones I, II and III for high, medium and low salinity respectively. Zone I, the junction between Arabian Sea and the estuary, had all species in yearly succession due to freshwater conditions in monsoon to high salinity in pre-monsoon. The medium (zone II) and low (zone III) salinity mid and upstream portions had maximum of 67 and 39 fish species respectively. Maintenance of natural salinity regimes in estuary, among other ecological factors, is critical for its fish diversity.

Drug Discovery Research in India: Current State and Future Prospects

Indian civilization developed a strong system of traditional medicine and was one of the first nations to develop a synthetic drug. In the postindependence era, Indian pharmaceutical industry developed a strong base for production of generic drugs. Challenges for the future are to give its traditional medicine a strong scientific base and develop research and clinical capability to consistently produce new drugs based on advances in modem biological sciences.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Impacts of modern transitions on thermal comfort in vernacular dwellings in warm-humid climate of Sugganahalli (India)

Sugganahalli, a rural vernacular community in a warm-humid region in South India, is under transition towards adopting modern construction practices. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete (RCC)/tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Vernacular architecture evolves adopting local resources in response to the local climate adopting passive solar designs. This paper investigates the effectiveness of passive solar elements on the indoor thermal comfort by adopting modern climate-responsive design strategies. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Age-old traditional design considerations were found to concur with modern understanding into bio-climatic response and climate-responsiveness. Modern transitions were found to increase the average indoor temperatures in excess of 7 degrees C. Such transformations tend to shift the indoor conditions to a psychrometric zone that is likely to require active air-conditioning. Also, the surveyed thermal sensation votes were found to lie outside the extended thermal comfort boundary for hot developing countries provided by Givoni in the bio-climatic chart.

Male Takeover and Infanticide in Nilgiri Langurs Semnopithecus johnii in the Western Ghats, India

Male takeover and infanticide are a widespread phenomenon among non-human primates, observed mostly in species with a relatively longer lactation in relation to gestation. In this study, we report for the first time an episode of male takeover and infanticide, and the rarely reported occurrence of an all-male band and female dispersal, in Nilgiri langurs, Semnopithecus johnii, in the Western Ghats, India. The new male was a member of an all-male band. After the takeover, the resident male and 3 juvenile males left the group and joined the all-male band. A female whose infant was killed was found missing after some days. There were significant changes in the patterns of social interactions among the resident group females soon after the male takeover, wherein the females spent less time on social interactions as compared to before and after the episode of takeover. The new male rarely interacted with the females soon after the takeover. We also observed that the resident group shifted its home range to a poorer quality habitat. (C) 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel

Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.

Dynamic Site Characterization and Correlation of Shear Wave Velocity with Standard Penetration Test `N' Values for the City of Agartala, Tripura State, India

Seismic site characterization is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to gauge the average dynamic properties of soil deposits and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. This paper presents a seismic site characterization of Agartala city, the capital of Tripura state, in the northeast of India. Seismically, Agartala city is situated in the Bengal Basin zone which is classified as a highly active seismic zone, assigned by Indian seismic code BIS-1893, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part-1 General Provisions and Buildings. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi (2002), it is the highest seismic level (zone-V) in the country. The city is very close to the Sylhet fault (Bangladesh) where two major earthquakes (M (w) > 7) have occurred in the past and affected severely this city and the whole of northeast India. In order to perform site response evaluation, a series of geophysical tests at 27 locations were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method for obtaining shear wave velocity (V (s)) profiles from in situ measurements. Similarly, standard penetration test (SPT-N) bore log data sets have been obtained from the Urban Development Department, Govt. of Tripura. In the collected data sets, out of 50 bore logs, 27 were selected which are close to the MASW test locations and used for further study. Both the data sets (V (s) profiles with depth and SPT-N bore log profiles) have been used to calculate the average shear wave velocity (V (s)30) and average SPT-N values for the upper 30 m depth of the subsurface soil profiles. These were used for site classification of the study area recommended by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) manual. The average V (s)30 and SPT-N classified the study area as seismic site class D and E categories, indicating that the city is susceptible to site effects and liquefaction. Further, the different data set combinations between V (s) and SPT-N (corrected and uncorrected) values have been used to develop site-specific correlation equations by statistical regression, as `V (s)' is a function of SPT-N value (corrected and uncorrected), considered with or without depth. However, after considering the data set pairs, a probabilistic approach has also been presented to develop a correlation using a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot. A comparison has also been made with the well known published correlations (for all soils) available in the literature. The present correlations closely agree with the other equations, but, comparatively, the correlation of shear wave velocity with the variation of depth and uncorrected SPT-N values provides a more suitable predicting model. Also the Q-Q plot agrees with all the other equations. In the absence of in situ measurements, the present correlations could be used to measure V (s) profiles of the study area for site response studies.