Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Linear Transceiver Design for an Amplify-and-Forward Relay Based on the MBER Criterion

A design methodology based on the Minimum Bit Error Ratio (MBER) framework is proposed for a non-regenerative Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) relay-aided system to determine various linear parameters. We consider both the Relay-Destination (RD) as well as the Source-Relay-Destination (SRD) link design based on this MBER framework, including the pre-coder, the Amplify-and-Forward (AF) matrix and the equalizer matrix of our system. It has been shown in the previous literature that MBER based communication systems are capable of reducing the Bit-Error-Ratio (BER) compared to their Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) based counterparts. We design a novel relay-aided system using various signal constellations, ranging from QPSK to the general M-QAM and M-PSK constellations. Finally, we propose its sub-optimal versions for reducing the computational complexity imposed. Our simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme indeed achieves a significant BER reduction over the existing LMMSE scheme.

TIME VARYING LINEAR PREDICTION USING SPARSITY CONSTRAINTS

Time-varying linear prediction has been studied in the context of speech signals, in which the auto-regressive (AR) coefficients of the system function are modeled as a linear combination of a set of known bases. Traditionally, least squares minimization is used for the estimation of model parameters of the system. Motivated by the sparse nature of the excitation signal for voiced sounds, we explore the time-varying linear prediction modeling of speech signals using sparsity constraints. Parameter estimation is posed as a 0-norm minimization problem. The re-weighted 1-norm minimization technique is used to estimate the model parameters. We show that for sparsely excited time-varying systems, the formulation models the underlying system function better than the least squares error minimization approach. Evaluation with synthetic and real speech examples show that the estimated model parameters track the formant trajectories closer than the least squares approach.

Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Linear Index Coding and Representable Discrete Polymatroids

Discrete polymatroids are the multi-set analogue of matroids. In this paper, we explore the connections between linear index coding and representable discrete polymatroids. The index coding problem involves a sender which generates a set of messages X = {x(1), x(2), ... x(k)} and a set of receivers R which demand messages. A receiver R is an element of R is specified by the tuple (x, H) where x. X is the message demanded by R and H subset of X \textbackslash {x} is the side information possessed by R. It is first shown that a linear solution to an index coding problem exists if and only if there exists a representable discrete polymatroid satisfying certain conditions which are determined by the index coding problem considered. El Rouayheb et. al. showed that the problem of finding a multi-linear representation for a matroid can be reduced to finding a perfect linear index coding solution for an index coding problem obtained from that matroid. Multi-linear representation of a matroid can be viewed as a special case of representation of an appropriate discrete polymatroid. We generalize the result of El Rouayheb et. al. by showing that the problem of finding a representation for a discrete polymatroid can be reduced to finding a perfect linear index coding solution for an index coding problem obtained from that discrete polymatroid.

On linear series and a conjecture of D. C. Butler

Let C be a smooth irreducible projective curve of genus g and L a line bundle of degree d generated by a linear subspace V of H-0 (L) of dimension n+1. We prove a conjecture of D. C. Butler on the semistability of the kernel of the evaluation map V circle times O-C -> L and obtain new results on the stability of this kernel. The natural context for this problem is the theory of coherent systems on curves and our techniques involve wall crossing formulae in this theory.

Conservation Properties of the Trapezoidal Rule in Linear Time Domain Analysis of Acoustics and Structures

The trapezoidal rule, which is a special case of the Newmark family of algorithms, is one of the most widely used methods for transient hyperbolic problems. In this work, we show that this rule conserves linear and angular momenta and energy in the case of undamped linear elastodynamics problems, and an ``energy-like measure'' in the case of undamped acoustic problems. These conservation properties, thus, provide a rational basis for using this algorithm. In linear elastodynamics problems, variants of the trapezoidal rule that incorporate ``high-frequency'' dissipation are often used, since the higher frequencies, which are not approximated properly by the standard displacement-based approach, often result in unphysical behavior. Instead of modifying the trapezoidal algorithm, we propose using a hybrid finite element framework for constructing the stiffness matrix. Hybrid finite elements, which are based on a two-field variational formulation involving displacement and stresses, are known to approximate the eigenvalues much more accurately than the standard displacement-based approach, thereby either bypassing or reducing the need for high-frequency dissipation. We show this by means of several examples, where we compare the numerical solutions obtained using the displacement-based and hybrid approaches against analytical solutions.

A micropolar peridynamic theory in linear elasticity

A state-based micropolar peridynamic theory for linear elastic solids is proposed. The main motivation is to introduce additional micro-rotational degrees of freedom to each material point and thus naturally bring in the physically relevant material length scale parameters into peridynamics. Non-ordinary type modeling via constitutive correspondence is adopted here to define the micropolar peridynamic material. Along with a general three dimensional model, homogenized one dimensional Timoshenko type beam models for both the proposed micropolar and the standard non-polar peridynamic variants are derived. The efficacy of the proposed models in analyzing continua with length scale effects is established via numerical simulations of a few beam and plane-stress problems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal Linear Glauber Model

Contrary to the actual nonlinear Glauber model, the linear Glauber model (LGM) is exactly solvable, although the detailed balance condition is not generally satisfied. This motivates us to address the issue of writing the transition rate () in a best possible linear form such that the mean squared error in satisfying the detailed balance condition is least. The advantage of this work is that, by studying the LGM analytically, we will be able to anticipate how the kinetic properties of an arbitrary Ising system depend on the temperature and the coupling constants. The analytical expressions for the optimal values of the parameters involved in the linear are obtained using a simple Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse matrix. This approach is quite general, in principle applicable to any system and can reproduce the exact results for one dimensional Ising system. In the continuum limit, we get a linear time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation from the Glauber's microscopic model of non-conservative dynamics. We analyze the critical and dynamic properties of the model, and show that most of the important results obtained in different studies can be reproduced by our new mathematical approach. We will also show in this paper that the effect of magnetic field can easily be studied within our approach; in particular, we show that the inverse of relaxation time changes quadratically with (weak) magnetic field and that the fluctuation-dissipation theorem is valid for our model.

CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF PRE-TWISTED THICK BEAMS USING VARIATIONAL ASYMPTOTIC METHOD

An asymptotically-exact methodology is presented for obtaining the cross-sectional stiffness matrix of a pre-twisted moderately-thick beam having rectangular cross sections and made of transversely isotropic materials. The anisotropic beam is modeled from 3-D elasticity, without any further assumptions. The beam is allowed to have large displacements and rotations, but small strain is assumed. The strain energy of the beam is computed making use of the constitutive law and the kinematical relations derived with the inclusion of geometrical nonlinearities and initial twist. Large displacements and rotations are allowed, but small strain is assumed. The Variational Asymptotic Method is used to minimize the energy functional, thereby reducing the cross section to a point on the reference line with appropriate properties, yielding a 1-D constitutive law. In this method as applied herein, the 2-D cross-sectional analysis is performed asymptotically by taking advantage of a material small parameter and two geometric small parameters. 3-D strain components are derived using kinematics and arranged as orders of the small parameters. Warping functions are obtained by the minimization of strain energy subject to certain set of constraints that renders the 1-D strain measures well-defined. Closed-form expressions are derived for the 3-D non-linear warping and stress fields. The model is capable of predicting interlaminar and transverse shear stresses accurately up to first order.

Analysis of Transverse Shear Strains in Pre-Twisted Thick Beams using Variational Asymptotic Method

The cross-sectional stiffness matrix is derived for a pre-twisted, moderately thick beam made of transversely isotropic materials and having rectangular cross sections. An asymptotically-exact methodology is used to model the anisotropic beam from 3-D elasticity, without any further assumptions. The beam is allowed to have large displacements and rotations, but small strain is assumed. The strain energy is computed making use of the beam constitutive law and kinematical relations derived with the inclusion of geometrical nonlinearities and an initial twist. The energy functional is minimized making use of the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM), thereby reducing the cross section to a point on the beam reference line with appropriate properties, forming a 1-D constitutive law. VAM is a mathematical technique employed in the current problem to rigorously split the 3-D analysis of beams into two: a 2-D analysis over the beam cross-sectional domain, which provides a compact semi-analytical form of the properties of the cross sections, and a nonlinear 1-D analysis of the beam reference curve. In this method, as applied herein, the cross-sectional analysis is performed asymptotically by taking advantage of a material small parameter and two geometric small parameters. 3-D strain components are derived using kinematics and arranged in orders of the small parameters. Closed-form expressions are derived for the 3-D non-linear warping and stress fields. Warping functions are obtained by the minimization of strain energy subject to certain set of constraints that render the 1-D strain measures well-defined. The zeroth-order 3-D warping field thus yielded is then used to integrate the 3-D strain energy density over the cross section, resulting in the 1-D strain energy density, which in turn helps identify the corresponding cross-sectional stiffness matrix. The model is capable of predicting interlaminar and transverse shear stresses accurately up to first order.

A Polymatroid Approach to Separable Convex Optimization with Linear Ascending Constraints

We revisit a problem studied by Padakandla and Sundaresan SIAM J. Optim., August 2009] on the minimization of a separable convex function subject to linear ascending constraints. The problem arises as the core optimization in several resource allocation problems in wireless communication settings. It is also a special case of an optimization of a separable convex function over the bases of a specially structured polymatroid. We give an alternative proof of the correctness of the algorithm of Padakandla and Sundaresan. In the process we relax some of their restrictions placed on the objective function.

Alternative Formulation of the Discrete Linear Quadratic Regulator (DLQR)

In this paper, an alternative apriori and aposteriori formulation has been derived for the discrete linear quadratic regulator (DLQR) in a manner analogous to that used in the discrete Kalman filter. It has been shown that the formulation seamlessly fits into the available formulation of the DLQR and the equivalent terms in the existing formulation and the proposed formulation have been identified. Thereafter, the significance of this alternative formulation has been interpreted in terms of the sensitivity of the controller performances to any changes in the states or to changes in the control inputs. The implications of this alternative formulation to adaptive controller tuning have also been discussed.

On the Bounds of Certain Maximal Linear Codes in a Projective Space

The set of all subspaces of F-q(n) is denoted by P-q(n). The subspace distance d(S)(X, Y) = dim(X) + dim(Y)-2dim(X boolean AND Y) defined on P-q(n) turns it into a natural coding space for error correction in random network coding. A subset of P-q(n) is called a code and the subspaces that belong to the code are called codewords. Motivated by classical coding theory, a linear coding structure can be imposed on a subset of P-q(n). Braun et al. conjectured that the largest cardinality of a linear code, that contains F-q(n), is 2(n). In this paper, we prove this conjecture and characterize the maximal linear codes that contain F-q(n).

Global response sensitivity analysis using probability distance measures and generalization of Sobol's analysis

The study introduces two new alternatives for global response sensitivity analysis based on the application of the L-2-norm and Hellinger's metric for measuring distance between two probabilistic models. Both the procedures are shown to be capable of treating dependent non-Gaussian random variable models for the input variables. The sensitivity indices obtained based on the L2-norm involve second order moments of the response, and, when applied for the case of independent and identically distributed sequence of input random variables, it is shown to be related to the classical Sobol's response sensitivity indices. The analysis based on Hellinger's metric addresses variability across entire range or segments of the response probability density function. The measure is shown to be conceptually a more satisfying alternative to the Kullback-Leibler divergence based analysis which has been reported in the existing literature. Other issues addressed in the study cover Monte Carlo simulation based methods for computing the sensitivity indices and sensitivity analysis with respect to grouped variables. Illustrative examples consist of studies on global sensitivity analysis of natural frequencies of a random multi-degree of freedom system, response of a nonlinear frame, and safety margin associated with a nonlinear performance function. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.