Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.

Climate change vulnerability profiles for North East India

Climate change vulnerability profiles are developed at the district level for agriculture, water and forest sectors for the North East region of India for the current and projected future climates. An index-based approach was used where a set of indicators that represent key sectors of vulnerability (agriculture, forest, water) is selected using the statistical technique principal component analysis. The impacts of climate change on key sectors as represented by the changes in the indicators were derived from impact assessment models. These impacted indicators were utilized for the calculation of the future vulnerability to climate change. Results indicate that majority of the districts in North East India are subject to climate induced vulnerability currently and in the near future. This is a first of its kind study that exhibits ranking of districts of North East India on the basis of the vulnerability index values. The objective of such ranking is to assist in: (i) identifying and prioritizing the most vulnerable sectors and districts; (ii) identifying adaptation interventions, and (iii) mainstreaming adaptation in development programmes.

Landslide susceptibility mapping in the downstream region of Sharavathi river basin, Central Western Ghats

Landslides are hazards encountered during monsoon in undulating terrains of Western Ghats causing geomorphic make over of earth surface resulting in significant damages to life and property. An attempt is made in this paper to identify landslides susceptibility regions in the Sharavathi river basin downstream using frequency ratio method based on the field investigations during July- November 2007. In this regard, base layers of spatial data such as topography, land cover, geology and soil were considered. This is supplemented with the field investigations of landslides. Factors that influence landslide were extracted from the spatial database. The probabilistic model -frequency ratio is computed based on these factors. Landslide susceptibility indices were computed and grouped into five classes. Validation of LHS, showed an accuracy of 89% as 25 of the 28 regions tallied with the field condition of highly vulnerable landslide regions. The landslide susceptible map generated for the downstream would be useful for the district officials to implement appropriate mitigation measures to reduce hazards.

Wetlands of Greater Bangalore, India: Automatic Delineation through Pattern Classifiers

Wetlands are the most productive and biologically diverse but very fragile ecosystems. They are vulnerable to even small changes in their biotic and abiotic factors. In recent years, there has been concern over the continuous degradation of wetlands due to unplanned developmental activities. This necessitates inventorying, mapping, and monitoring of wetlands to implement sustainable management approaches. The principal objective of this work is to evolve a strategy to identify and monitor wetlands using temporal remote sensing (RS) data. Pattern classifiers were used to extract wetlands automatically from NIR bands of MODIS, Landsat MSS and Landsat TM remote sensing data. MODIS provided data for 2002 to 2007, while for 1973 and 1992 IR Bands of Landsat MSS and TM (79m and 30m spatial resolution) data were used. Principal components of IR bands of MODIS (250 m) were fused with IRS LISS-3 NIR (23.5 m). To extract wetlands, statistical unsupervised learning of IR bands for the respective temporal data was performed using Bayesian approach based on prior probability, mean and covariance. Temporal analysis of wetlands indicates a sharp decline of 58% in Greater Bangalore attributing to intense urbanization processes, evident from a 466% increase in built-up area from 1973 to 2007.

Community-based Natural Resource Management: Issues and Cases from South Asia

Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) is the joint management of natural resources by a community based on a community strategy, through a participatory mechanism involving all legitimate stakeholders. The approach is community-based in that the communities managing the resources have the legal rights, the local institutions and the economic incentives to take substantial responsibility for sustained use of these resources. This implies that the community plays an active role in the management of natural resources, not because it asserts sole ownership over them, but because it can claim participation in their management and benefits for practical and technical reasons1–4. This approach emerged as the dominant conservation concept in the late 1970s and early 1980s, of the disillusionment with the developmental state. Governments across South and South East Asia, Africa and Latin America have adopted and implemented CBNRM in various ways, viz. through sectoral programmes such as forestry, irrigation or wildlife management, multisectoral programmes such as watershed development and efforts towards political devolution. In India, the principle of decentralization through ‘gram swaraj’ was introduced by Mahatma Gandhi. The 73rd and 74th constitution amendments in 1992 gave impetus to the decentralized planning at panchayat levels through the creation of a statutory three-level local self-government structure5,6. The strength of this book is that it includes chapters by CBNRM advocates based on six seemingly innovative initiatives being implemented by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in ecologically vulnerable regions of South Asia: two in the Himalayas (watershed development programme in Lingmutechhu, Bhuthan and Thalisain tehsil, Paudi Grahwal District, Uttarakhand), three in semi-arid parts of western India (watershed development in Hivre Bazar, Maharashtra and Nathugadh village, Gujarat and water-harvesting structures in Gopalapura, Rajasthan) and one in the flood-plains of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna (Char land, Galibanda and Jamalpur districts, Bangladesh). Watersheds in semi-arid regions fall in the low-rainfall region (500–700 mm) and suffer the vagaries of drought 2–3 years in every five-year cycle. In all these locations, the major occupation is agriculture, most of which is rainfed or dry. The other two cases (in Uttarakhand) fall in the Himalayan region (temperate/sub-temperate climate), which has witnessed extensive deforestation in the last century and is now considered as one of the most vulnerable locations in South Asia. Terraced agriculture is being practised in these locations for a long time. The last case (Gono Chetona) falls in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna charlands which are the most ecologically vulnerable regions in the sub-continent with constantly changing landscape. Agriculture and livestock rearing are the main occupations, and there is substantial seasonal emigration for wage labour by the adult males. River erosion and floods force the people to adopt a semi-migratory lifestyle. The book attempts to analyse the potential as well as limitations of NGOdriven CBNRM endeavours across agroclimatic regions of South Asia with emphasis on four intrinsically linked normative concerns, namely sustainability, livelihood enhancement, equity and demographic decentralization in chapters 2–7. Comparative analysis of these case studies done in chapter 8, highlights the issues that require further research while portraying the strengths and limits of NGO-driven CBNRM. In Hivre Bazar, the post-watershed intervention scenario is such that farmers often grow three crops in a year – kharif bajra, rabi jowar and summer vegetable crops. Productivity has increased in the dry lands due to improvement in soil moisture levels. The revival of johads in Gopalpura has led to the proliferation of wheat and increased productivity. In Lingmuteychhu, productivity gains have also arisen, but more due to the introduction of both local and high-yielding, new varieties as opposed to increased water availability. In the case of Gono Chetona, improvements have come due to diversification of agriculture; for example, the promotion of vegetable gardens. CBNRM interventions in most cases have also led to new avenues of employment and income generation. The synthesis shows that CBNRM efforts have made significant contributions to livelihood enhancement and only limited gains in terms of collective action for sustainable and equitable access to benefits and continuing resource use, and in terms of democratic decentralization, contrary to the objectives of the programme. Livelihood benefits include improvements in availability of livelihood support resources (fuelwood, fodder, drinking water), increased productivity (including diversification of cropping pattern) in agriculture and allied activities, and new sources of livelihood. However, NGO-driven CBNRM has not met its goal of providing ‘alternative’ forms of ‘development’ due to impediments of state policy, short-sighted vision of implementers and confrontation with the socio-ecological reality of the region, which almost always are that of fragmented communities (or communities in flux) with unequal dependence and access to land and other natural resources along with great gender imbalances. Appalling, however, is the general absence of recognition of the importance of and the will to explore practical ways to bring about equitable resource transfer or benefit-sharing and the consequent innovations in this respect that are evident in the pioneering community initiatives such as pani panchayat, etc. Pertaining to the gains on the ecological sustainability front, Hivre Bazar and Thalisain initiatives through active participation of villagers have made significant regeneration of the water table within the village, and mechanisms such as ban on number of bore wells, the regulation of cropping pattern, restrictions on felling of trees and free grazing to ensure that in the future, the groundwater is neither over-exploited nor its recharge capability impaired. Nevertheless, the longterm sustainability of the interventions in the case of Ghoga and Gopalpura initiatives as the focus has been mostly on regeneration of resources, and less on regulating the use of regenerated resources. Further, in Lingmuteychhu and Gono Chetona, the interventions are mainly household-based and the focus has been less explicit on ecological components. The studies demonstrate the livelihood benefits to all of the interventions and significant variation in achievements with reference to sustainability, equity and democratic decentralization depending on the level and extent of community participation apart from the vision of implementers, strategy (or nature of intervention shaped by the question of community formation), the centrality of community formation and also the State policy. Case studies show that the influence of State policy is multi-faceted and often contradictory in nature. This necessitates NGOs to engage with the State in a much more purposeful way than in an ‘autonomous space’. Thus the role of NGOs in CBNRM is complementary, wherein they provide innovative experiments that the State can learn. This helps in achieving the goals of CBNRM through democratic decentralization. The book addresses the vital issues related to natural resource management and interests of the community. Key topics discussed throughout the book are still at the centre of the current debate. This compilation consists of well-written chapters based on rigorous synthesis of CBNRM case studies, which will serve as good references for students, researchers and practitioners in the years to come.

Multifaceted roles of curcumin: two sides of a coin!

Introduction: Curcumin has been a front-line topic of mainstream scientific research for a variety of diseases from cancer to Alzheimer's to infectious diseases. Curcumin suppresses the type 1 immune response, which might lead to alleviation of type 1 immune response disorders. However, the inhibition of type 1 immune response might invite infections with opportunistic pathogens. Considering its low bioavailability, several curcumin derivatives have been designed to improve its functionality. Areas covered: This is a consolidated review which aims to compare and contrast diverse aspects of curcumin in variety of diseases. The intricate underlying mechanisms and the functional determinants of curcumin are discussed. Expert opinion: Curcumin being considered as a spicy panacea, is not a remedy for all diseases. However, its ability to act differentially as an antioxidant or pro-oxidant akin to that of a double-edged sword/friend turning foe can be either beneficial or harmful for the host. It exhibits antioxidant properties at concentrations achievable in the body, making the host vulnerable to infections due to the suppression of innate immune responses. With the increase in knowledge of its functional groups, production of analogues of curcumin is underway to enhance its bioavailability and hence its therapeutic potency.

Macromolecular Transport Through Porous Arterial Walls

Arteries are heterogeneous, composite structures that undergo large cyclic deformations during blood transport. Presence, build-up and consequent rupture of blockages in blood vessels, called atherosclerotic plaques, lead to disruption in the blood flow that can eventually be fatal. Abnormal lipid profile and hypertension are the main risk factors for plaque progression. Treatments span from pharmacological methods, to minimally invasive balloon angioplasty and stent procedures, and finally to surgical alternatives. There is a need to understand arterial disease progression and devise methods to detect, control, treat and manage arterial disease through early intervention. Local delivery through drug eluting stents also provide an attractive option for maintaining vessel integrity and restoring blood flow while releasing controlled amount of drug to reduce and alleviate symptoms. Development of drug eluting stents is hence interesting albeit challenging because it requires an integration of knowledge of mechanical properties with material transport of drug through the arterial wall to produce a desired biochemical effect. Although experimental models are useful in studying such complex multivariate phenomena, numerical models of mass transport in the vessel have proved immensely useful to understand and delineate complex interactions between chemical species, physical parameters and biological variables. The goals of this review are to summarize literature based on studies of mass transport involving low density lipoproteins in the arterial wall. We also discuss numerical models of drug elution from stents in layered and porous arterial walls that provide a unique platform that can be exploited for the design of novel drug eluting stents.

Withania somnifera reverses Alzheimer's disease pathology by enhancing low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein in liver

A 30-d course of oral administration of a semipurified extract of the root of Withania somnifera consisting predominantly of withanolides and withanosides reversed behavioral deficits, plaque pathology, accumulation of beta-amyloid peptides (A beta) and oligomers in the brains of middle-aged and old APP/PS1 Alzheimer's disease transgenic mice. It was similarly effective in reversing behavioral deficits and plaque load in APPSwInd mice (line J20). The temporal sequence involved an increase in plasma A beta and a decrease in brain A beta monomer after 7 d, indicating increased transport of A beta from the brain to the periphery. Enhanced expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein (LRP) in brain microvessels and the A beta-degrading protease neprilysin (NEP) occurred 14-21 d after a substantial decrease in brain A beta levels. However, significant increase in liver LRP and NEP occurred much earlier, at 7 d, and were accompanied by a rise in plasma sLRP, a peripheral sink for brain A beta. In WT mice, the extract induced liver, but not brain, LRP and NEP and decreased plasma and brain A beta, indicating that increase in liver LRP and sLRP occurring independent of A beta concentration could result in clearance of A beta. Selective down-regulation of liver LRP, but not NEP, abrogated the therapeutic effects of the extract. The remarkable therapeutic effect of W. somnifera mediated through up-regulation of liver LRP indicates that targeting the periphery offers a unique mechanism for A beta clearance and reverses the behavioral deficits and pathology seen in Alzheimer's disease models.

Real-time monitoring of critical nodes with minimal number of Phasor Measurement Units

This paper presents a method for placement of Phasor Measurement Units, ensuring the monitoring of vulnerable buses which are obtained based on transient stability analysis of the overall system. Real-time monitoring of phase angles across different nodes, which indicates the proximity to instability, the very purpose will be well defined if the PMUs are placed at buses which are more vulnerable. The issue is to identify the key buses where the PMUs should be placed when the transient stability prediction is taken into account considering various disturbances. Integer Linear Programming technique with equality and inequality constraints is used to find out the optimal placement set with key buses identified from transient stability analysis. Results on IEEE-14 bus system are presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Parametric study of the behavior of double toggle switching mechanisms

The paper identified and characterized a special multi-degree of freedom toggle behavior, called double toggle, observed in a typical MCCB switching mechanism. For an idealized system, the condition of toggle sequence is derived geometrically. The existing tools available in a multi-body dynamics package are used for exploring the dynamic behavior of such systems parametrically. The double toggle mechanism is found to make the system insensitive to the operator's behavior; however, the system is vulnerable under extreme usage. The linkage kinematics and stopper locations are found to have dominant role on the behavior of the system. It is revealed that the operating time is immune to the inertial property of the input link and sensitive to that of the output link. Novel designs exploiting this observation, in terms of spring and toggle placements, to enhance switching performance have also been reported in the paper. Detailed study revealed that strategic placement of the spring helps in selective alteration of system performance. Thus, the study establishes the critical importance of the kinematic design of MCCB over the dynamic parameters. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microearthquake activity near the Idukki Reservoir, south India: A rare example of renewed triggered seismicity

Earthquakes triggered by artificial reservoirs have been documented for more than seven decades and the processes leading to this phenomenon are fairly well understood. Larger among such earthquakes are known to occur within a few years of reservoir impoundment and usually the activity decreases with time. A documented example of Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS), the Idukki Reservoir in Kerala, south India, impounded in 1975, is an exception wherein the triggered activity has been revived in 2011, nearly 35 years after the initial burst of activity in 1977, two years after the dam was filled. The magnitude of the largest shock in the 2011 sequence exceeded that of the previously documented largest microearthquake. Presence of faults that are close to failure and vulnerable to increase in pore pressure due to reservoir loading or increased rainfall, or a combination of both seems to trigger shocks in this area. The renewed burst of earthquakes after a prolonged period of reduced activity at the Idukki Reservoir is a rare example of RTS. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping joint ROM on a cube using electromagnetic trackers

This paper presents a unified framework using the unit cube for measurement, representation and usage of the range of motion (ROM) of body joints with multiple degrees of freedom (d.o.f) to be used for digital human models (DHM). Traditional goniometry needs skill and kn owledge; it is intrusive and has limited applicability for multi-d.o.f. joints. Measurements using motion capture systems often involve complicated mathematics which itself need validation. In this paper we use change of orientation as the measure of rotation; this definition does not require the identification of any fixed axis of rotation. A two-d.o.f. joint ROM can be represented as a Gaussian map. Spherical polygon representation of ROM, though popular, remains inaccurate, vulnerable due to singularities on parametric sphere and difficult to use for point classification. The unit cube representation overcomes these difficulties. In the work presented here, electromagnetic trackers have been effectively used for measuring the relative orientation of a body segment of interest with respect to another body segment. The orientation is then mapped on a surface gridded cube. As the body segment is moved, the grid cells visited are identified and visualized. Using the visual display as a feedback, the subject is instructed to cover as many grid cells as he can. In this way we get a connected patch of contiguous grid cells. The boundary of this patch represents the active ROM of the concerned joint. The tracker data is converted into the motion of a direction aligned with the axis of the segment and a rotation about this axis later on. The direction identifies the grid cells on the cube and rotation about the axis is represented as a range and visualized using color codes. Thus the present methodology provides a simple, intuitive and accura te determination and representation of up to 3 d.o.f. joints. Basic results are presented for the shoulder. The measurement scheme to be used for wrist and neck, and approach for estimation of the statistical distribution of ROM for a given population are also discussed.

Assessing Indian cities for vulnerability to climate change

This paper critically evaluates the vulnerability of Indian cities to climate change in the context of sustainable development. City-scale indicators are developed for multiple dimensions of security and vulnerability. Factor analysis is employed to construct a vulnerability ranking of 46 major Indian cities. The analysis reveals that high aggregate levels of wealth do not necessarily make a city less vulnerable. Two, cities with diversified economic opportunities could adapt better to the new risks posed by climate change, than cities with unipolar opportunities. Three, highly polluted cities are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and cities with severe groundwater depletion will find it difficult to cope with increased rainfall variability. Policy and sustainability issues are discussed for these results.

Estimation of design basis earthquake using region-specific M-max, for the NPP site at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

The objective of the paper is to estimate Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) and Operating/Design Basis Earthquake (OBE/DBE) for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site located at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India. The NPP is located at 12.558 degrees N, 80.175 degrees E and a 500 km circular area around NPP site is considered as `seismic study area' based on past regional earthquake damage distribution. The geology, seismicity and seismotectonics of the study area are studied and the seismotectonic map is prepared showing the seismic sources and the past earthquakes. Earthquake data gathered from many literatures are homogenized and declustered to form a complete earthquake catalogue for the seismic study area. The conventional maximum magnitude of each source is estimated considering the maximum observed magnitude (M-max(obs)) and/or the addition of 0.3 to 0.5 to M-max(obs). In this study maximum earthquake magnitude has been estimated by establishing a region's rupture character based on source length and associated M-max(obs). A final source-specific M-max is selected from the three M-max values by following the logical criteria. To estimate hazard at the NPP site, ten Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) valid for the study area are considered. These GMPEs are ranked based on Log-Likelihood (LLH) values. Top five GMPEs are considered to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the site. Maximum PGA is obtained from three faults and named as vulnerable sources to decide the magnitudes of OBE and SSE. The average and normalized site specific response spectrum is prepared considering three vulnerable sources and further used to establish site-specific design spectrum at NPP site.