Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Long term monitering of vegetation in a tropical deciduous forest in Mudumalai,southern India

As part of an international network of large plots to study tropical vegetation dynamics on a long-term basis, a 50-hectare permanent plot was set up during 1988-89 in the deciduous forests of Mudumalai, southern India. Within this plot 25,929 living woody plants (71 species) above 1 cm DBH (diameter at breast height) were identified, measured, tagged and mapped. Species abundances corresponded to the characteristic log-normal distribution. The four most abundant species (Kydia calycina, Lagerstroemia microcarpa, Terminalia crenulata and Helicteres isora) constituted nearly 56% of total stems, while seven species were represented by only one individual each in the plot. Variance/mean ratios of density showed most species to have clumped distributions. The population declined overall by 14% during the first two years, largely due to elephant and fire-mediated damage to Kydia calycina and Helicteres isora. In this article we discuss the need for large plots to study vegetation dynamics.

Parasite abundance and diversity in mammals: correlates with host ecology

Fecally dispersed parasites of 12 wild mammal species in Mudumalai Sanctuary, southern India, were studied, Fecal propagule densities and parasite diversity measures were correlated with host ecological variables. Host species with higher predatory pressure had lower parasite loads and parasite diversity. Host body weight, home range, population density, gregariousness, and diet did not show predicted effects on parasite loads. Measures of a! diversity were positively correlated with parasite abundance and were negatively correlated with beta diversity, Based on these data, hypotheses regarding determinants of parasite community are discussed.

The foraging ecology of dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Mudumalai Sanctuary, southern India

Two dhole (Cuon alpinus) packs were monitored in Mudumalai Sanctuary, southern India, during 1989-93 to look at population dynamics, movement pattern, and foraging strategy and their inter-relationship with the maintenance of social groups. Pack size fluctuated substantially (4-18 and 4-25 in the two packs) owing to dispersal and demographic factors such as females not breeding in a given year. Both packs killed a much higher proportion of chital (Axis axis) and sambar (Cervus unicolor) fawns (< one year old) than their availability in the population. There was no correlation between pack size and body weight of prey killed, while per capita consumption of meat declined with increasing pack size. Home-range area (83.3 km(2) and 54.2 km(2) for the two packs) was not correlated with pack size. Pack movement from one resource patch (consisting of resting sites and aggregations of prey species) to another was not random or based on factors such as inter-patch distance or relative prey densities. There was no difference in mean residence time of the pack across the four resource patches; the pack moved across these in a sequential manner in one direction. We conclude that dholes live in groups not because of any advantages accruing from enhanced group sizes through increased per capita yield of food, but as a consequence of the dispersion of resources.

Nature's Swiss Army Knives: Ovipositor Structure Mirrors Ecology in a Multitrophic Fig Wasp Community

Background: Resource partitioning is facilitated by adaptations along niche dimensions that range from morphology to behaviour. The exploitation of hidden resources may require specially adapted morphological or sensory tools for resource location and utilisation. Differences in tool diversity and complexity can determine not only how many species can utilize these hidden resources but also how they do so. Methodology and Principal Findings: The sclerotisation, gross morphology and ultrastructure of the ovipositors of a seven-member community of parasitic wasps comprising of gallers and parasitoids developing within the globular syconia (closed inflorescences) of Ficus racemosa (Moraceae) was investigated. These wasps also differ in their parasitism mode (external versus internal oviposition) and their timing of oviposition into the expanding syconium during its development. The number and diversity of sensilla, as well as ovipositor teeth, increased from internally ovipositing to externally ovipositing species and from gallers to parasitoids. The extent of sclerotisation of the ovipositor tip matched the force required to penetrate the syconium at the time of oviposition of each species. The internally ovipositing pollinator had only one type of sensillum and a single notch on the ovipositor tip. Externally ovipositing species had multiple sensilla types and teeth on their ovipositors. Chemosensilla were most concentrated at ovipositor tips while mechanoreceptors were more widely distributed, facilitating the precise location of hidden hosts in these wasps which lack larval host-seeking behaviour. Ovipositor traits of one parasitoid differed from those of its syntopic galler congeners and clustered with those of parasitoids within a different wasp subfamily. Thus ovipositor tools can show lability based on adaptive necessity, and are not constrained by phylogeny. Conclusions/Significance: Ovipositor structure mirrored the increasingly complex trophic ecology and requirements for host accessibility in this parasite community. Ovipositor structure could be a useful surrogate for predicting the biology of parasites in other communities.

Vegetation Status in Uttara Kannada District

Uttara Kannada is the only district in Karnataka, which has a forested area of about 80% and falls in the region of the Western Ghats. It is considered to be a very resourceful in terms of abundant natural resources and constitutes an important district in Karnataka. The forest resources of the district are under pressure as a large portion of the forested area has been converted to non-forestry activities since independence owing to the increased demands from human and animal population resulting in degradation of the forest ecosystem. This has led to poor productivity and regenerative capacity which is evident in the form of barren hill tops, etc in Coastal taluks of Uttara Kannada, entailing regular monitoring of the forest resources very essential. The classification of forest is a prerequisite for managing forest resources. Geographical Information System (GIS), allows the spatial and temporal analysis of the features of interest, and helps in solving the problem of deforestation and associated environmental and ecological problems. Spatial and temporal tools such as GIS and remotely sensed data helps the planners and decision makers in evolving the sustainable strategies for management and conservation of natural resources. Uttara Kannada district was classified on the basis of the land-use using supervised hard classifiers. The land use categories identified were urban area, water bodies, agricultural land, forest cover, and waste land. Further classification was carried out on the basis of forest type. The types of forest categorised were semi-evergreen, evergreen, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, plantations and scrub, thorny and non-forested area. The identified classes were correlated with the ground data collected during field visits. The observed results were compared with the historic data and the changes in the forest cover were analysed. From the assessment made it was clear that there has been a considerable degree of forest loss in certain areas of the district. It was also observed that plantations and social forests have increased drastically over the last fifteen years, and natural forests have declined.

Vegetation Analysis in Uttara Kannada District Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques

Uttara Kannada is the only district in Karnataka, which has a forested area of about 80% and falls in the region of the Western Ghats. It is considered to be a very resourceful in terms of abundant natural resources and constitutes an important district in Karnataka. The forest resources of the district are under pressure as a large portion of the forested area has been converted to non-forestry activities since independence owing to the increased demands from human and animal population resulting in degradation of the forest ecosystem. This has led to poor productivity and regenerative capacity which is evident in the form of barren hill tops, etc in Coastal taluks of Uttara Kannada, entailing regular monitoring of the forest resources very essential. The classification of forest is a prerequisite for managing forest resources. Geographical Information System (GIS), allows the spatial and temporal analysis of the features of interest, and helps in solving the problem of deforestation and associated environmental and ecological problems. Spatial and temporal tools such as GIS and remotely sensed data helps the planners and decision makers in evolving the sustainable strategies for management and conservation of natural resources. Uttara Kannada district was classified on the basis of the land-use using supervised hard classifiers. The land use categories identified were urban area, water bodies, agricultural land, forest cover, and waste land. Further classification was carried out on the basis of forest type. The types of forest categorised were semi-evergreen, evergreen, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, plantations and scrub, thorny and non-forested area. The identified classes were correlated with the ground data collected during field visits. The observed results were compared with the historic data and the changes in the forest cover were analysed. From the assessment made it was clear that there has been a considerable degree of forest loss in certain areas of the district. It was also observed that plantations and social forests have increased drastically over the last fifteen years,and natural forests have declined.

Remote detection and distinction of ants using nest-site specific LISS-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

This study in Western Ghats, India, investigates the relation between nesting sites of ants and a single remotely sensed variable: the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We carried out sampling in 60 plots each measuring 30 x 30 m and recorded nest sites of 13 ant species. We found that NDVI values at the nesting sites varied considerably between individual species and also between the six functional groups the ants belong to. The functional groups Cryptic Species, Tropical Climate Specialists and Specialist Predators were present in regions with high NDVI whereas Hot Climate Specialists and Opportunists were found in sites with low NDVI. As expected we found that low NDVI values were associated with scrub jungles and high NDVI values with evergreen forests. Interestingly, we found that Pachycondyla rufipes, an ant species found only in deciduous and evergreen forests, established nests only in sites with low NDVI (range = 0.015 - 0.1779). Our results show that these low NDVI values in deciduous and evergreen forests correspond to canopy gaps in otherwise closed deciduous and evergreen forests. Subsequent fieldwork confirmed the observed high prevalence of P. rufipes in these NDVI-constrained areas. We discuss the value of using NDVI for the remote detection and distinction of ant nest sites.

A model investigation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions on a millennial timescale

A terrestrial biosphere model with dynamic vegetation capability, Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS2), coupled to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) is used to investigate the multiple climate-forest equilibrium states of the climate system. A 1000-year control simulation and another 1000-year land cover change simulation that consisted of global deforestation for 100 years followed by re-growth of forests for the subsequent 900 years were performed. After several centuries of interactive climate-vegetation dynamics, the land cover change simulation converged to essentially the same climate state as the control simulation. However, the climate system takes about a millennium to reach the control forest state. In the absence of deep ocean feedbacks in our model, the millennial time scale for converging to the original climate state is dictated by long time scales of the vegetation dynamics in the northern high latitudes. Our idealized modeling study suggests that the equilibrium state reached after complete global deforestation followed by re-growth of forests is unlikely to be distinguishable from the control climate. The real world, however, could have multiple climate-forest states since our modeling study is unlikely to have represented all the essential ecological processes (e. g. altered fire regimes, seed sources and seedling establishment dynamics) for the reestablishment of major biomes.

Cannibalism can drive the evolution of behavioural phase polyphenism in locusts

During outbreaks, locust swarms can contain millions of insects travelling thousands of kilometers while devastating vegetation and crops. Such large-scale spatial organization is preceded locally by a dramatic density-dependent phenotypic transition in multiple traits. Behaviourally, low-density solitarious individuals avoid contact with one another; above a critical local density, they undergo a rapid behavioural transition to the gregarious phase whereby they exhibit mutual attraction. Although proximate causes of this phase polyphenism have been widely studied, the ultimate driving factors remain unclear. Using an individual-based evolutionary model, we reveal that cannibalism, a striking feature of locust ecology, could lead to the evolution of density-dependent behavioural phase-change in juvenile locusts. We show that this behavioural strategy minimizes risk associated with cannibalistic interactions and may account for the empirically observed persistence of locust groups during outbreaks. Our results provide a parsimonious explanation for the evolution of behavioural plasticity in locusts.

Assessing resilience and state-transition models with historical records of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in North American sagebrush-steppe

1. Resilience-based approaches are increasingly being called upon to inform ecosystem management, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This requires management frameworks that can assess ecosystem dynamics, both within and between alternative states, at relevant time scales. 2. We analysed long-term vegetation records from two representative sites in the North American sagebrush-steppe ecosystem, spanning nine decades, to determine if empirical patterns were consistent with resilience theory, and to determine if cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion led to thresholds as currently envisioned by expert-based state-and-transition models (STM). These data span the entire history of cheatgrass invasion at these sites and provide a unique opportunity to assess the impacts of biotic invasion on ecosystem resilience. 3. We used univariate and multivariate statistical tools to identify unique plant communities and document the magnitude, frequency and directionality of community transitions through time. Community transitions were characterized by 37-47% dissimilarity in species composition, they were not evenly distributed through time, their frequency was not correlated with precipitation, and they could not be readily attributed to fire or grazing. Instead, at both sites, the majority of community transitions occurred within an 8-10year period of increasing cheatgrass density, became infrequent after cheatgrass density peaked, and thereafter transition frequency declined. 4. Greater cheatgrass density, replacement of native species and indication of asymmetry in community transitions suggest that thresholds may have been exceeded in response to cheatgrass invasion at one site (more arid), but not at the other site (less arid). Asymmetry in the direction of community transitions also identified communities that were at-risk' of cheatgrass invasion, as well as potential restoration pathways for recovery of pre-invasion states. 5. Synthesis and applications. These results illustrate the complexities associated with threshold identification, and indicate that criteria describing the frequency, magnitude, directionality and temporal scale of community transitions may provide greater insight into resilience theory and its application for ecosystem management. These criteria are likely to vary across biogeographic regions that are susceptible to cheatgrass invasion, and necessitate more in-depth assessments of thresholds and alternative states, than currently available.

Integrating biodiversity and conservation with modern agricultural landscapes

To achieve food security and meet the demands of the ever-growing human populations, farming systems have assumed unsustainable practices to produce more from a finite land area. This has been cause for concern mainly due to the often-irreversible damage done to the otherwise productive agricultural landscapes. Agro-ecology is proclaimed to be deteriorating due to eroding integrity of connected ecological mosaics and vulnerability to climate change. This has contributed to declining species diversity, loss of buffer vegetation, fragmentation of habitats, and loss of natural pollinators or predators, which eventually leads to decline in ecosystem services. Currently, a hierarchy of conservation initiatives is being considered to restore ecological integrity of agricultural landscapes. However, the challenge of identifying a suitable conservation strategy is a daunting task in view of socio-ecological factors that may constrain the choice of available strategies. One way to mitigate this situation and integrate biodiversity with agricultural landscapes is to implement offset mechanisms, which are compensatory and balancing approaches to restore the ecological health and function of an ecosystem. This needs to be tailored to the history of location specific agricultural practices, and the social, ecological and environmental conditions. The offset mechanisms can complement other initiatives through which farmers are insured against landscape-level risks such as droughts, fire and floods. For countries in the developing world with significant biodiversity and extensive agriculture, we should promote a comprehensive model of sustainable agricultural landscapes and ecosystem services, replicable at landscape to regional scales. Arguably, the model can be a potential option to sustain the integrity of biodiversity mosaic in agricultural landscapes.