The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

Ages and relative sizes of pre-2004 tsunamis in the Bay of Bengal inferred from geologic evidence in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Geologic evidence along the northern part of the 2004 Aceh-Andaman rupture suggests that this region generated as many as five tsunamis in the prior 2000years. We identify this evidence by drawing analogy with geologic records of land-level change and the tsunami in 2004 from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands (A&N). These analogs include subsided mangrove swamps, uplifted coral terraces, liquefaction, and organic soils coated by sand and coral rubble. The pre-2004 evidence varies in potency, and materials dated provide limiting ages on inferred tsunamis. The earliest tsunamis occurred between the second and sixth centuries A.D., evidenced by coral debris of the southern Car Nicobar Island. A subsequent tsunami, probably in the range A.D. 770-1040, is inferred from deposits both in A&N and on the Indian subcontinent. It is the strongest candidate for a 2004-caliber earthquake in the past 2000years. A&N also contain tsunami deposits from A.D. 1250 to 1450 that probably match those previously reported from Sumatra and Thailand, and which likely date to the 1390s or 1450s if correlated with well-dated coral uplift offshore Sumatra. Thus, age data from A&N suggest that within the uncertainties in estimating relative sizes of paleo-earthquakes and tsunamis, the 1000year interval can be divided in half by the earthquake or earthquakes of A.D. 1250-1450 of magnitude >8.0 and consequent tsunamis. Unlike the transoceanic tsunamis generated by full or partial rupture of the subduction interface, the A&N geology further provides evidence for the smaller-sized historical tsunamis of 1762 and 1881, which may have been damaging locally.

A Rodinian suture in western India: New insights on India-Madagascar correlations

We report detailed evidence for a new paleo-suture zone (the Kumta suture) on the western margin of southern India. The c. 15-km-wide, westward dipping suture zone contains garnet-biotite, fuchsite-haematite, chlorite-quartz, quartz-phengite schists, biotite augen gneiss, marble and amphibolite. The isochemical phase diagram estimations and the high-Si phengite composition of quartz-phengite schist suggest a near-peak condition of c. 18 kbar at c. 550 degrees C, followed by near-isothermal decompression. The detrital SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages from quartz-phengite schist give four age populations ranging from 3280 to 2993 Ma. Phengite from quartz-phengite schist and biotite from garnet-biotite schist have K-Ar metamorphic ages of ca. 1326 and ca. 1385 Ma respectively. Electron microprobe-CHIME ages of in situ zircons in quartz-phengite schist (ca. 3750 Ma and ca. 1697 Ma) are consistent with the above results. The Bondla ultramafic-gabbro complex in the west of the Kumta suture compositionally represents an arc with K-Ar biotite ages from gabbro in the range 1644-1536 Ma. On the eastern side of the suture are weakly deformed and unmetamorphosed shallow westward-dipping sedimentary rocks of the Sirsi shelf, which has the following upward stratigraphy: pebbly quartzite/sandstone, turbidite, magnetite iron formation, and limestone; farther east the lower lying quartzite has an unconformable contact with ca. 2571 Ma quartzo-feldspathic gneisses of the Dharwar block with a ca. 1733 Ma biotite cooling age. To the west of the suture is a c. 60-km-wide Karwar block mainly consisting of tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) and amphibolite. The TTGs have U-Pb zircon magmatic ages of ca. 3200 Ma with a rare inherited core age of ca. 3601 Ma. The K-Ar biotite cooling age from the TTGs (1746 Ma and 1796 Ma) and amphibolite (ca. 1697 Ma) represents late-stage uplift. Integration of geological, structural and geochronological data from western India and eastern Madagascar suggest diachronous ocean closure during the amalgamation of Rodinia; in the north at around ca. 1380 Ma, and a progression toward the south until ca. 750 Ma. Satellite imagery based regional structural lineaments suggests that the Betsimisaraka suture continues into western India as the Kumta suture and possibly farther south toward a suture in the Coorg area, representing in total a c. 1000 km long Rodinian suture. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geomorphology reveals active decollement geometry in the central Himalayan seismic gap

The similar to 700-km-long ``central seismic gap'' is the most prominent segment of the Himalayan front not to have ruptured in a major earthquake during the last 200-500 yr. This prolonged seismic quiescence has led to the proposition that this region, with a population >10 million, is overdue for a great earthquake. Despite the region's recognized seismic risk, the geometry of faults likely to host large earthquakes remains poorly understood. Here, we place new constraints on the spatial distribution of rock uplift within the western similar to 400 km of the central seismic gap using topographic and river profile analyses together with basinwide erosion rate estimates from cosmogenic Be-10. The data sets show a distinctive physiographic transition at the base of the high Himalaya in the state of Uttarakhand, India, characterized by abrupt strike-normal increases in channel steepness and a tenfold increase in erosion rates. When combined with previously published geophysical imaging and seismicity data sets, we interpret the observed spatial distribution of erosion rates and channel steepness to reflect the landscape response to spatially variable rock uplift due to a structurally coherent ramp-flat system of the Main Himalayan Thrust. Although it remains unresolved whether the kinematics of the Main Himalayan Thrust ramp involve an emergent fault or duplex, the landscape and erosion rate patterns suggest that the decollement beneath the state of Uttarakhand provides a sufficiently large and coherent fault segment capable of hosting a great earthquake.