17 resultados para time, team, task and context


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Research has been undertaken to ascertain the predictability of non-stationary time series using wavelet and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) based time series models. Methods have been developed in the past to decompose a time series into components. Forecasting of these components combined with random component could yield predictions. Using this ideology, wavelet and EMD analyses have been incorporated separately which decomposes a time series into independent orthogonal components with both time and frequency localizations. The component series are fit with specific auto-regressive models to obtain forecasts which are later combined to obtain the actual predictions. Four non-stationary streamflow sites (USGS data resources) of monthly total volumes and two non-stationary gridded rainfall sites (IMD) of monthly total rainfall are considered for the study. The predictability is checked for six and twelve months ahead forecasts across both the methodologies. Based on performance measures, it is observed that wavelet based method has better prediction capabilities over EMD based method despite some of the limitations of time series methods and the manner in which decomposition takes place. Finally, the study concludes that the wavelet based time series algorithm can be used to model events such as droughts with reasonable accuracy. Also, some modifications that can be made in the model have been discussed that could extend the scope of applicability to other areas in the field of hydrology. (C) 2013 Elesvier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Accurately characterizing the time-varying interference caused to the primary users is essential in ensuring a successful deployment of cognitive radios (CR). We show that the aggregate interference at the primary receiver (PU-Rx) from multiple, randomly located cognitive users (CUs) is well modeled as a shifted lognormal random process, which is more accurate than the lognormal and the Gaussian process models considered in the literature, even for a relatively dense deployment of CUs. It also compares favorably with the asymptotically exact stable and symmetric truncated stable distribution models, except at high CU densities. Our model accounts for the effect of imperfect spectrum sensing, which depends on path-loss, shadowing, and small-scale fading of the link from the primary transmitter to the CU; the interweave and underlay modes or CR operation, which determine the transmit powers of the CUs; and time-correlated shadowing and fading of the links from the CUs to the PU-Rx. It leads to expressions for the probability distribution function, level crossing rate, and average exceedance duration. The impact of cooperative spectrum sensing is also characterized. We validate the model by applying it to redesign the primary exclusive zone to account for the time-varying nature of interference.