The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Use of climate information for farm-level decision making: rainfed groundnut in southern India

The production of rainfed crops in semi-arid tropics exhibits large variation in response to the variation in seasonal rainfall. There are several farm-level decisions such as the choice of cropping pattern, whether to invest in fertilizers, pesticides etc., the choice of the period for planting, plant population density etc. for which the appropriate choice (associated with maximum production or minimum risk) depends upon the nature of the rainfall variability or the prediction for a specific year. In this paper, we have addressed the problem of identifying the appropriate strategies for cultivation of rainfed groundnut in the Anantapur region in a semi-arid part of the Indian peninsula. The approach developed involves participatory research with active collaboration with farmers, so that the problems with perceived need are addressed with the modern tools and data sets available. Given the large spatial variation of climate and soil, the appropriate strategies are necessarily location specific. With the approach adopted, it is possible to tap the detailed location specific knowledge of the complex rainfed ecosystem and gain an insight into the variety of options of land use and management practices available to each category of stakeholders. We believe such a participatory approach is essential for identifying strategies that have a favourable cost-benefit ratio over the region considered and hence are associated with a high chance of acceptance by the stakeholders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative Assessment of Techniques for Bioresource Monitoring Using GIS and Remote Sensing

Growing concern over the status of global and regional bioenergy resources has necessitated the analysis and monitoring of land cover and land use parameters on spatial and temporal scales. The knowledge of land cover and land use is very important in understanding natural resources utilization, conversion and management. Land cover, land use intensity and land use diversity are land quality indicators for sustainable land management. Optimal management of resources aids in maintaining the ecosystem balance and thereby ensures the sustainable development of a region. Thus sustainable development of a region requires a synoptic ecosystem approach in the management of natural resources that relates to the dynamics of natural variability and the effects of human intervention on key indicators of biodiversity and productivity. Spatial and temporal tools such as remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS) and global positioning system (GPS) provide spatial and attribute data at regular intervals with functionalities of a decision support system aid in visualisation, querying, analysis, etc., which would aid in sustainable management of natural resources. Remote sensing data and GIS technologies play an important role in spatially evaluating bioresource availability and demand. This paper explores various land cover and land use techniques that could be used for bioresources monitoring considering the spatial data of Kolar district, Karnataka state, India. Slope and distance based vegetation indices are computed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of land cover using remote spectral measurements. Differentscale mapping of land use pattern in Kolar district is done using supervised classification approaches. Slope based vegetation indices show area under vegetation range from 47.65 % to 49.05% while distance based vegetation indices shoes its range from 40.40% to 47.41%. Land use analyses using maximum likelihood classifier indicate that 46.69% is agricultural land, 42.33% is wasteland (barren land), 4.62% is built up, 3.07% of plantation, 2.77% natural forest and 0.53% water bodies. The comparative analysis of various classifiers, indicate that the Gaussian maximum likelihood classifier has least errors. The computation of talukwise bioresource status shows that Chikballapur Taluk has better availability of resources compared to other taluks in the district.

Vegetation Status in Uttara Kannada District

Uttara Kannada is the only district in Karnataka, which has a forested area of about 80% and falls in the region of the Western Ghats. It is considered to be a very resourceful in terms of abundant natural resources and constitutes an important district in Karnataka. The forest resources of the district are under pressure as a large portion of the forested area has been converted to non-forestry activities since independence owing to the increased demands from human and animal population resulting in degradation of the forest ecosystem. This has led to poor productivity and regenerative capacity which is evident in the form of barren hill tops, etc in Coastal taluks of Uttara Kannada, entailing regular monitoring of the forest resources very essential. The classification of forest is a prerequisite for managing forest resources. Geographical Information System (GIS), allows the spatial and temporal analysis of the features of interest, and helps in solving the problem of deforestation and associated environmental and ecological problems. Spatial and temporal tools such as GIS and remotely sensed data helps the planners and decision makers in evolving the sustainable strategies for management and conservation of natural resources. Uttara Kannada district was classified on the basis of the land-use using supervised hard classifiers. The land use categories identified were urban area, water bodies, agricultural land, forest cover, and waste land. Further classification was carried out on the basis of forest type. The types of forest categorised were semi-evergreen, evergreen, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, plantations and scrub, thorny and non-forested area. The identified classes were correlated with the ground data collected during field visits. The observed results were compared with the historic data and the changes in the forest cover were analysed. From the assessment made it was clear that there has been a considerable degree of forest loss in certain areas of the district. It was also observed that plantations and social forests have increased drastically over the last fifteen years, and natural forests have declined.

Present status of Gottigere Tank : Indicator of Decision maker’s apathy

Gottigere lake with a water spread area of about 14.98 ha is located in the Bellandur Lake catchment of the South Pennar River basin. In recent years, this lake catchment has been subjected to environmental stress mainly due to the rampant unplanned developmental activities in the catchment. The functional ability of the ecosystem is impaired due to structural changes in the ecosystem. This is evident from poor water quality, breeding of disease vectors, contamination of groundwater in the catchment, frequent flooding in the catchment due to topography alteration, decline in groundwater table, erosion in lake bed, etc. The development plans of the region (current as well as the proposed) ignore the integrated planning approaches considering all components of the ecosystem. Serious threats to the sustainability of the region due to lack of holistic approaches in aquatic resources management are land use changes (removal of vegetation cover, etc.), point and non-point sources of pollution impairing water quality, dumping of solid waste (building waste, etc.). Conservation of lake ecosystem is possible only when the physical and chemical integrity of its catchment is maintained. Alteration in the catchment either due to land use changes (leading to paved surface area from vegetation cover), alteration in topography, construction of roads in the immediate vicinity are detrimental to water yield in the catchment and hence, the sustenance of the lake. Open spaces in the form of lakes and parks aid as kidney and lung in an urban ecosystem, which maintain the health of the people residing in the locality. Identification of core buffer zones and conservation of buffer zones (500 to 1000 m from shore) is to be taken up on priority for conservation and sustainable management of Bangalore lakes. Bangalore is located over a ridge delineating four watersheds, viz. Hebbal, Koramangala, Challaghatta and Vrishabhavathi. Lakes and tanks are an integral part of natural drainage and help in retaining water during rainfall, which otherwise get drained off as flash floods. Each lake harvests rainwater from its catchment and surplus flows downstream spilling into the next lake in the chain. The topography of Bangalore has uniquely supported the creation of a large number of lakes. These lakes form chains, being a series of impoundments across streams. This emphasises the interconnectivity among Bangalore lakes, which has to be retained to prevent Bangalore from flooding or from water scarcity. The main source of replenishment of groundwater is the rainfall. The slope of the terrain allows most of the rainwater to flow as run-off. With the steep gradients available in the major valleys of Bangalore, the rainwater will flow out of the city within four to five hours. Only a small fraction of the rainwater infiltrates into the soil. The infiltration of water into the subsoil has declined with more and more buildings and paved road being constructed in the city. Thus the natural drainage of Bangalore is governed by flows from the central ridge to all lower contours and is connected with various tanks and ponds. There are no major rivers flowing in Bangalore and there is an urgent need to sustain these vital ecosystems through proper conservation and management measures. The proposed peripheral ring road connecting Hosur Road (NH 7) and Mysore Road (SH 17) at Gottigere lake falls within the buffer zone of the lake. This would alter the catchment integrity and hence water yield affecting flora, fauna and local people, and ultimately lead to the disappearance of Gottigere lake. Developmental activities in lake catchments, which has altered lake’s ecological integrity is in violation of the Indian Fisheries Act – 1857, the Indian Forest Act – 1927, Wildlife (Protection) Act – 1972, Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act – 1974, Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act – 1977, Forest (Conservation Act) – 1980, Environmental (Protection) Act – 1986, Wildlife (Protection) Amendment Act – 1991 and National Conservation Strategy and Policy Statement on Environment and Development – 1992. Considering 65% decline of waterbodies in Bangalore (during last three decades), decision makers should immediately take preventive measures to ensure that lake ecosystems are not affected. This report discusses the impacts due to the proposed infrastructure developmental activities in the vicinity of Gottigere tank.

Vegetation Analysis in Uttara Kannada District Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques

Uttara Kannada is the only district in Karnataka, which has a forested area of about 80% and falls in the region of the Western Ghats. It is considered to be a very resourceful in terms of abundant natural resources and constitutes an important district in Karnataka. The forest resources of the district are under pressure as a large portion of the forested area has been converted to non-forestry activities since independence owing to the increased demands from human and animal population resulting in degradation of the forest ecosystem. This has led to poor productivity and regenerative capacity which is evident in the form of barren hill tops, etc in Coastal taluks of Uttara Kannada, entailing regular monitoring of the forest resources very essential. The classification of forest is a prerequisite for managing forest resources. Geographical Information System (GIS), allows the spatial and temporal analysis of the features of interest, and helps in solving the problem of deforestation and associated environmental and ecological problems. Spatial and temporal tools such as GIS and remotely sensed data helps the planners and decision makers in evolving the sustainable strategies for management and conservation of natural resources. Uttara Kannada district was classified on the basis of the land-use using supervised hard classifiers. The land use categories identified were urban area, water bodies, agricultural land, forest cover, and waste land. Further classification was carried out on the basis of forest type. The types of forest categorised were semi-evergreen, evergreen, moist deciduous, dry deciduous, plantations and scrub, thorny and non-forested area. The identified classes were correlated with the ground data collected during field visits. The observed results were compared with the historic data and the changes in the forest cover were analysed. From the assessment made it was clear that there has been a considerable degree of forest loss in certain areas of the district. It was also observed that plantations and social forests have increased drastically over the last fifteen years,and natural forests have declined.

Landslide Susceptible Locations in Western Ghats: Prediction through openModeller

Many shallow landslides are triggered by heavy rainfall on hill slopes resulting in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. Hill slope failure usually occurs as soil resistance deteriorates in the presence of the acting stress developed due to a number of reasons such as increased soil moisture content, change in land use causing slope instability, etc. Landslides triggered by rainfall can possibly be foreseen in real time by jointly using rainfall intensity-duration and information related to land surface susceptibility. Terrain analysis applications using spatial data such as aspect, slope, flow direction, compound topographic index, etc. along with information derived from remotely sensed data such as land cover / land use maps permit us to quantify and characterise the physical processes governing the landslide occurrence phenomenon. In this work, the probable landslide prone areas are predicted using two different algorithms – GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in a free and open source software package - openModeller. Several environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation data, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index, and precipitation data were used in modelling. A comparison of the simulated outputs, validated by overlaying the actual landslide occurrence points showed 92% accuracy with GARP and 96% accuracy with SVM in predicting landslide prone areas considering precipitation in the wettest month whereas 91% and 94% accuracy were obtained from GARP and SVM considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.

Geoinformatics for Urbanisation and Urban Sprawl Pattern Analysis

Urbanisation is the increase in the population of cities in proportion to the region's rural population. Urbanisation in India is very rapid with urban population growing at around 2.3 percent per annum. Urban sprawl refers to the dispersed development along highways or surrounding the city and in rural countryside with implications such as loss of agricultural land, open space and ecologically sensitive habitats. Sprawl is thus a pattern and pace of land use in which the rate of land consumed for urban purposes exceeds the rate of population growth resulting in an inefficient and consumptive use of land and its associated resources. This unprecedented urbanisation trend due to burgeoning population has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in the city planning and management process involving plethora of issues like infrastructure development, traffic congestion, and basic amenities (electricity, water, and sanitation), etc. In this context, to aid the decision makers in following the holistic approaches in the city and urban planning, the pattern, analysis, visualization of urban growth and its impact on natural resources has gained importance. This communication, analyses the urbanisation pattern and trends using temporal remote sensing data based on supervised learning using maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate normal density parameters and Bayesian classification approach. The technique is implemented for Greater Bangalore – one of the fastest growing city in the World, with Landsat data of 1973, 1992 and 2000, IRS LISS-3 data of 1999, 2006 and MODIS data of 2002 and 2007. The study shows that there has been a growth of 466% in urban areas of Greater Bangalore across 35 years (1973 to 2007). The study unravels the pattern of growth in Greater Bangalore and its implication on local climate and also on the natural resources, necessitating appropriate strategies for the sustainable management.

Fusion of multi resolution remote sensing data for urban sprawl analysis

Urban population is growing at around 2.3 percent per annum in India. This is leading to urbanisation and often fuelling the dispersed development in the outskirts of urban and village centres with impacts such as loss of agricultural land, open space, and ecologically sensitive habitats. This type of upsurge is very much prevalent and persistent in most places, often inferred as sprawl. The direct implication of such urban sprawl is the change in land use and land cover of the region and lack of basic amenities, since planners are unable to visualise this type of growth patterns. This growth is normally left out in all government surveys (even in national population census), as this cannot be grouped under either urban or rural centre. The investigation of patterns of growth is very crucial from regional planning point of view to provide basic amenities in the region. The growth patterns of urban sprawl can be analysed and understood with the availability of temporal multi-sensor, multi-resolution spatial data. In order to optimise these spectral and spatial resolutions, image fusion techniques are required. This aids in integrating a lower spatial resolution multispectral (MSS) image (for example, IKONOS MSS bands of 4m spatial resolution) with a higher spatial resolution panchromatic (PAN) image (IKONOS PAN band of 1m spatial resolution) based on a simple spectral preservation fusion technique - the Smoothing Filter-based Intensity Modulation (SFIM). Spatial details are modulated to a co-registered lower resolution MSS image without altering its spectral properties and contrast by using a ratio between a higher resolution image and its low pass filtered (smoothing filter) image. The visual evaluation and statistical analysis confirms that SFIM is a superior fusion technique for improving spatial detail of MSS images with the preservation of spectral properties.

Spatial Data Mining and Modeling for visualisation of Rapid Urbanisation

Rapid urbanisation in India has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in regional planning involving plethora of issues including provision of basic amenities (like electricity, water, sanitation, transport, etc.). Urban planning entails an understanding of landscape and urban dynamics with causal factors. Identifying, delineating and mapping landscapes on temporal scale provide an opportunity to monitor the changes, which is important for natural resource management and sustainable planning activities. Multi-source, multi-sensor, multi-temporal, multi-frequency or multi-polarization remote sensing data with efficient classification algorithms and pattern recognition techniques aid in capturing these dynamics. This paper analyses the landscape dynamics of Greater Bangalore by: (i) characterisation of direct impervious surface, (ii) computation of forest fragmentation indices and (iii) modeling to quantify and categorise urban changes. Linear unmixing is used for solving the mixed pixel problem of coarse resolution super spectral MODIS data for impervious surface characterisation. Fragmentation indices were used to classify forests – interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch and undetermined. Based on this, urban growth model was developed to determine the type of urban growth – Infill, Expansion and Outlying growth. This helped in visualising urban growth poles and consequence of earlier policy decisions that can help in evolving strategies for effective land use policies.

Spatial Decision Support System for Assessing Micro, Mini and Small Hydel Potential

This study describes the design and implementation of DSS for assessment of Mini, Micro and Small Schemes. The design links a set of modelling, manipulation, spatial analyses and display tools to a structured database that has the facility to store both observed and simulated data. The main hypothesis is that this tool can be used to form a core of practical methodology that will result in more resilient in less time and can be used by decision-making bodies to assess the impacts of various scenarios (e.g.: changes in land use pattern) and to review, cost and benefits of decisions to be made. It also offers means of entering, accessing and interpreting the information for the purpose of sound decision making. Thus, the overall objective of this DSS is the development of set of tools aimed at transforming data into information and aid decisions at different scales.

Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis

Urbanisation is a dynamic complex phenomenon involving large scale changes in the land uses at local levels. Analyses of changes in land uses in urban environments provide a historical perspective of land use and give an opportunity to assess the spatial patterns, correlation, trends, rate and impacts of the change, which would help in better regional planning and good governance of the region. Main objective of this research is to quantify the urban dynamics using temporal remote sensing data with the help of well-established landscape metrics. Bangalore being one of the rapidly urbanising landscapes in India has been chosen for this investigation. Complex process of urban sprawl was modelled using spatio temporal analysis. Land use analyses show 584% growth in built-up area during the last four decades with the decline of vegetation by 66% and water bodies by 74%. Analyses of the temporal data reveals an increase in urban built up area of 342.83% (during 1973-1992), 129.56% (during 1992-1999), 106.7% (1999-2002), 114.51% (2002-2006) and 126.19% from 2006 to 2010. The Study area was divided into four zones and each zone is further divided into 17 concentric circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand the patterns and extent of the urbanisation at local levels. The urban density gradient illustrates radial pattern of urbanisation for the period 1973-2010. Bangalore grew radially from 1973 to 2010 indicating that the urbanisation is intensifying from the central core and has reached the periphery of the Greater Bangalore. Shannon's entropy, alpha and beta population densities were computed to understand the level of urbanisation at local levels. Shannon's entropy values of recent time confirms dispersed haphazard urban growth in the city, particularly in the outskirts of the city. This also illustrates the extent of influence of drivers of urbanisation in various directions. Landscape metrics provided in depth knowledge about the sprawl. Principal component analysis helped in prioritizing the metrics for detailed analyses. The results clearly indicates that whole landscape is aggregating to a large patch in 2010 as compared to earlier years which was dominated by several small patches. The large scale conversion of small patches to large single patch can be seen from 2006 to 2010. In the year 2010 patches are maximally aggregated indicating that the city is becoming more compact and more urbanised in recent years. Bangalore was the most sought after destination for its climatic condition and the availability of various facilities (land availability, economy, political factors) compared to other cities. The growth into a single urban patch can be attributed to rapid urbanisation coupled with the industrialisation. Monitoring of growth through landscape metrics helps to maintain and manage the natural resources. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is land really a constraint for the utilization of solar energy in India?

This article compares the land use in solar energy technologies with conventional energy sources. This has been done by introducing two parameters called land transformation and land occupation. It has been shown that the land area transformed by solar energy power generation is small compared to hydroelectric power generation, and is comparable with coal and nuclear energy power generation when life-cycle transformations are considered. We estimate that 0.97% of total land area or 3.1% of the total uncultivable land area of India would be required to generate 3400 TWh/yr from solar energy power systems in conjunction with other renewable energy sources.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS ALONG THE TERRAIN GRADIENT OF DIVERSE LANDSCAPE

Land use (LU) land cover (LC) information at a temporal scale illustrates the physical coverage of the Earth's terrestrial surface according to its use and provides the intricate information for effective planning and management activities. LULC changes are stated as local and location specific, collectively they act as drivers of global environmental changes. Understanding and predicting the impact of LULC change processes requires long term historical restorations and projecting into the future of land cover changes at regional to global scales. The present study aims at quantifying spatio temporal landscape dynamics along the gradient of varying terrains presented in the landscape by multi-data approach (MDA). MDA incorporates multi temporal satellite imagery with demographic data and other additional relevant data sets. The gradient covers three different types of topographic features, planes; hilly terrain and coastal region to account the significant role of elevation in land cover change. The seasonality is another aspect to be considered in the vegetation dominated landscapes; variations are accounted using multi seasonal data. Spatial patterns of the various patches are identified and analysed using landscape metrics to understand the forest fragmentation. The prediction of likely changes in 2020 through scenario analysis has been done to account for the changes, considering the present growth rates and due to the proposed developmental projects. This work summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization as the causal factors for LULC change.