Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Sleep-Wake Control using Reinforcement Learning in Sensor Networks

The aim in this paper is to allocate the `sleep time' of the individual sensors in an intrusion detection application so that the energy consumption from the sensors is reduced, while keeping the tracking error to a minimum. We propose two novel reinforcement learning (RL) based algorithms that attempt to minimize a certain long-run average cost objective. Both our algorithms incorporate feature-based representations to handle the curse of dimensionality associated with the underlying partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Further, the feature selection scheme used in our algorithms intelligently manages the energy cost and tracking cost factors, which in turn assists the search for the optimal sleeping policy. We also extend these algorithms to a setting where the intruder's mobility model is not known by incorporating a stochastic iterative scheme for estimating the mobility model. The simulation results on a synthetic 2-d network setting are encouraging.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Relay Selection with Channel Probing in Sleep-Wake Cycling Wireless Sensor Networks

In geographical forwarding of packets in a large wireless sensor network (WSN) with sleep-wake cycling nodes, we are interested in the local decision problem faced by a node that has ``custody'' of a packet and has to choose one among a set of next-hop relay nodes to forward the packet toward the sink. Each relay is associated with a ``reward'' that summarizes the benefit of forwarding the packet through that relay. We seek a solution to this local problem, the idea being that such a solution, if adopted by every node, could provide a reasonable heuristic for the end-to-end forwarding problem. Toward this end, we propose a local relay selection problem consisting of a forwarding node and a collection of relay nodes, with the relays waking up sequentially at random times. At each relay wake-up instant, the forwarder can choose to probe a relay to learn its reward value, based on which the forwarder can then decide whether to stop (and forward its packet to the chosen relay) or to continue to wait for further relays to wake up. The forwarder's objective is to select a relay so as to minimize a combination of waiting delay, reward, and probing cost. The local decision problem can be considered as a variant of the asset selling problem studied in the operations research literature. We formulate the local problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and characterize the solution in terms of stopping sets and probing sets. We provide results illustrating the structure of the stopping sets, namely, the (lower bound) threshold and the stage independence properties. Regarding the probing sets, we make an interesting conjecture that these sets are characterized by upper bounds. Through simulation experiments, we provide valuable insights into the performance of the optimal local forwarding and its use as an end-to-end forwarding heuristic.

A sleep-inducing peptide from the venom of the Indian cone snail Conus araneosus

The marine snail Conus araneosus has unusual significance due to its confined distribution to coastal regions of southeast India and Sri Lanka. Due to its relative scarceness, this species has been poorly studied. In this work, we characterized the venom of C. araneosus to identify new venom peptides. We identified 14 novel compounds. We determined amino acid sequences from chemically-modified and unmodified crude venom using liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry and matrix assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Ten sequences showed six Cys residues arranged in a pattern that is most commonly associated with the M-superfamily of conotoxins. Four other sequences had four Cys residues in a pattern that is most commonly associated with the T-superfamily of conotoxins. The post-translationally modified residue (pyroglutamate) was determined at the N-terminus of two sequences, ar3h and ar3i respectively. In addition, two sequences, ar3g and ar3h were C-terminally amidated. At a dose of 2 nmol, peptide ar3j elicited sleep when injected intraperitoneally into mice. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a peptide from a molluscivorous cone snail with sleep-inducing effects in mice. The novel peptides characterized herein extend the repertoire of unique peptides derived from cone snails and may add value to the therapeutic promise of conotoxins. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social Experience Is Sufficient to Modulate Sleep Need of Drosophila without Increasing Wakefulness

Organisms quickly learn about their surroundings and display synaptic plasticity which is thought to be critical for their survival. For example, fruit flies Drosophila melanogaster exposed to highly enriched social environment are found to show increased synaptic connections and a corresponding increase in sleep. Here we asked if social environment comprising a pair of same-sex individuals could enhance sleep in the participating individuals. To study this, we maintained individuals of D. melanogaster in same-sex pairs for a period of 1 to 4 days, and after separation, monitored sleep of the previously socialized and solitary individuals under similar conditions. Males maintained in pairs for 3 or more days were found to sleep significantly more during daytime and showed a tendency to fall asleep sooner as compared to solitary controls (both measures together are henceforth referred to as ``sleep-enhancement''). This sleep phenotype is not strain-specific as it is observed in males from three different ``wild type'' strains of D. melanogaster. Previous studies on social interaction mediated sleep-enhancement presumed `waking experience' during the interaction to be the primary underlying cause; however, we found sleep-enhancement to occur without any significant increase in wakefulness. Furthermore, while sleep-enhancement due to group-wise social interaction requires Pigment Dispersing Factor (PDF) positive neurons; PDF positive and CRYPTOCHROME (CRY) positive circadian clock neurons and the core circadian clock genes are not required for sleep-enhancement to occur when males interact in pairs. Pair-wise social interaction mediated sleep-enhancement requires dopamine and olfactory signaling, while visual and gustatory signaling systems seem to be dispensable. These results suggest that socialization alone (without any change in wakefulness) is sufficient to cause sleep-enhancement in fruit fly D. melanogaster males, and that its neuronal control is context-specific.