Multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction of daily chaotic rainfall with climate inputs

The basic characteristic of a chaotic system is its sensitivity to the infinitesimal changes in its initial conditions. A limit to predictability in chaotic system arises mainly due to this sensitivity and also due to the ineffectiveness of the model to reveal the underlying dynamics of the system. In the present study, an attempt is made to quantify these uncertainties involved and thereby improve the predictability by adopting a multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. Daily rainfall data of Malaprabha basin, India for the period 1955-2000 is used for the study. It is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with the dimension varying from 5 to 7. A multivariate phase space is generated, considering a climate data set of 16 variables. The chaotic nature of each of these variables is confirmed using false nearest neighbor method. The redundancy, if any, of this atmospheric data set is further removed by employing principal component analysis (PCA) method and thereby reducing it to eight principal components (PCs). This multivariate series (rainfall along with eight PCs) is found to exhibit a low dimensional chaotic nature with dimension 10. Nonlinear prediction employing local approximation method is done using univariate series (rainfall alone) and multivariate series for different combinations of embedding dimensions and delay times. The uncertainty in initial conditions is thus addressed by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of parameters. The ensembles generated from multivariate predictions are found to be better than those from univariate predictions. The uncertainty in predictions is decreased or in other words predictability is increased by adopting multivariate nonlinear ensemble prediction. The restriction on predictability of a chaotic series can thus be altered by quantifying the uncertainty in the initial conditions and also by including other possible variables, which may influence the system. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear measures of QT interval series: novel indices of cardiac repolarization lability: MEDqthr and LLEqthr

In this study, we investigated nonlinear measures of chaos of QT interval time series in 28 normal control subjects, 36 patients with panic disorder and 18 patients with major depression in supine and standing postures. We obtained the minimum embedding dimension (MED) and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) of instantaneous heart rate (HR) and QT interval series. MED quantifies the system's complexity and LLE predictability. There was a significantly lower MED and a significantly increased LLE of QT interval time series in patients. Most importantly, nonlinear indices of QT/HR time series, MEDqthr (MED of QT/HR) and LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR), were highly significantly different between controls and both patient groups in either posture. Results remained the same even after adjusting for age. The increased LLE of QT interval time, series in patients with anxiety and depression is in line with our previous findings of higher QTvi (QT variability index, a log ratio of QT variability corrected for mean QT squared divided by heart rate variability corrected for mean heart rate squared) in these patients, using linear techniques. Increased LLEqthr (LLE of QT/HR) may be a more sensitive tool to study cardiac repolarization and a valuable addition to the time domain measures such as QTvi. This is especially important in light of the finding that LLEqthr correlated poorly and nonsignificantly with QTvi. These findings suggest an increase in relative cardiac sympathetic activity and a decrease in certain aspects of cardiac vagal function in patients with anxiety as well as depression. The lack of correlation between QTvi and LLEqthr suggests that this nonlinear index is a valuable addition to the linear measures. These findings may also help to explain the higher incidence of cardiovascular mortality in patients with anxiety and depressive disorders. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Molecular to Supramolecular: An Exploration into the Modes of Self-assembly in Conformationally Locked Polycyclitols

This brief account highlights the notable findings of our investigation into the supramolecular chemistry of conformationally locked polycyclitols in the solid state. The study was aimed at analyzing the crystal packing and unraveling the modalities of non-covalent interactions (particularly, intramolecular vis-a-vis intermolecular OH center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds) in polyols. The know-how obtained thereof, was successfully utilized to engineer self-assemblies of designer polycyclitols, having hydrogen bond donors and acceptors fettered onto a trans-decalin scaffold. The results seek to draw particular attention to the intrinsic attribute of this rigid carbocyclic framework to lock functional groups into spatially invariant positions and bring potential intramolecular hydrogen bonding partners into favorable interaction geometry to engender predictability in the self-assembly patterns.

Discrete Vortex Method-Based Model for Ground-Effect Studies

A discrete vortex method-based model has been proposed for two-dimensional/three-dimensional ground-effect prediction. The model merely requires two-dimensional sectional aerodynamics in free flight. This free-flight data can be obtained either from experiments or a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics solver. The first step of this two-step model involves a constrained optimization procedure that modifies the vortex distribution on the camber line as obtained from a discrete vortex method to match the free-flight data from experiments/computational fluid dynamics. In the second step, the vortex distribution thus obtained is further modified to account for the presence of the ground plane within a discrete vortex method-based framework. Whereas the predictability of the lift appears as a natural extension, the drag predictability within a potential flow framework is achieved through the introduction of what are referred to as drag panels. The need for the use of the generalized Kutta-Joukowski theorem is emphasized. The extension of the model to three dimensions is by the way of using the numerical lifting-line theory that allows for wing sweep. The model is extensively validated for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional ground-effect studies. The work also demonstrates the ability of the model to predict lift and drag coefficients of a high-lift wing in ground effect to about 2 and 8% accuracy, respectively, as compared to the results obtained using a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver involving grids with several million volumes. The model shows a lot of promise in design, particularly during the early phase.

Estimation of nonlinearities from pseudodynamic and dynamic responses of bridge structures using the Delay Vector Variance method

Analysis of the variability in the responses of large structural systems and quantification of their linearity or nonlinearity as a potential non-invasive means of structural system assessment from output-only condition remains a challenging problem. In this study, the Delay Vector Variance (DVV) method is used for full scale testing of both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic responses of two bridges, in order to study the degree of nonlinearity of their measured response signals. The DVV detects the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series and is based upon the examination of local predictability of a signal. The pseudo-dynamic data is obtained from a concrete bridge during repair while the dynamic data is obtained from a steel railway bridge traversed by a train. We show that DVV is promising as a marker in establishing the degree to which a change in the signal nonlinearity reflects the change in the real behaviour of a structure. It is also useful in establishing the sensitivity of instruments or sensors deployed to monitor such changes. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.