Queuing Models for Estimating Aircraft Fleet Availability

The availability of a small fleet of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot combination is modeled and studied. First, a deterministic flow model relates parameters of interest and represents the state-of-the art in the planning of such systems. Second, a cyclic queue model shows the effect of the principal uncertainties in operation and repair and shows the consequent decrease in the availability of aircraft at the flying-base. Several options such as increasing fleet size, investments in additional repair facilities, or building reliability and maintainability into the individual aircraft during its life-cycle are open for increasing the availability. A life-cycle cost criterion brings out some of these features. Numerical results confirm Rose's prediction that there exists a minimal cost combination of end products and repair-depot capability to achieve a prescribed operational availability.

Negotiation schemes for multi-agent cooperative search

Because of limited sensor and communication ranges, designing efficient mechanisms for cooperative tasks is difficult. In this article, several negotiation schemes for multiple agents performing a cooperative task are presented. The negotiation schemes provide suboptimal solutions, but have attractive features of fast decision-making, and scalability to large number of agents without increasing the complexity of the algorithm. A software agent architecture of the decision-making process is also presented. The effect of the magnitude of information flow during the negotiation process is studied by using different models of the negotiation scheme. The performance of the various negotiation schemes, using different information structures, is studied based on the uncertainty reduction achieved for a specified number of search steps. The negotiation schemes perform comparable to that of optimal strategy in terms of uncertainty reduction and also require very low computational time, similar to 7 per cent to that of optimal strategy. Finally, analysis on computational and communication requirement for the negotiation schemes is carried out.

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

A fuzzy control for network overload alleviation

This paper presents a prototype of a fuzzy system for alleviation of network overloads in the day-to-day operation of power systems. The control used for overload alleviation is real power generation rescheduling. Generation Shift Sensitivity Factors (GSSF) are computed accurately, using a more realistic operational load flow model. Overloading of lines and sensitivity of controlling variables are translated into fuzzy set notations to formulate the relation between overloading of line and controlling ability of generation scheduling. A fuzzy rule based system is formed to select the controllers, their movement direction and step size. Overall sensitivity of line loading to each of the generation is also considered in selecting the controller. Results obtained for network overload alleviation of two modified Indian power networks of 24 bus and 82 bus with line outage contingencies are presented for illustration purposes.

Study of gas-fines in decreasing gas velocity in a packed bed

It has been well recognized now that the blast furnace aerodynamics can be represented more accurately under the decreasing gas velocity condition. Therefore, gas-fines study has been carried out in a packed bed under the decreasing gas velocity condition. Gas and fines flow equations have been developed and solved, for two-dimensional case using finite volume method. To take into account the turbulence, k-e turbulent flow model has also been developed in two-dimension. The model's predictions have been validated against the published experimental data for the increasing gas velocity case, as no experimental data are available in open literature for the decreasing gas velocity. This study shows the difference in the results for increasing and decreasing gas velocity cases under various conditions which have been reported here. Implication of the results to the blast furnace condition has also been discussed.

Laboratory simulations show diabatic heating drives cumulus-cloud evolution and entrainment

Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in climate science, and remain a weak link in modeling tropical circulation. A major challenge is to establish connections between particulate microphysics and macroscale turbulent dynamics in cumulus clouds. Here we address the issue from the latter standpoint. First we show how to create bench-scale flows that reproduce a variety of cumulus-cloud forms (including two genera and three species), and track complete cloud life cycles-e.g., from a ``cauliflower'' congestus to a dissipating fractus. The flow model used is a transient plume with volumetric diabatic heating scaled dynamically to simulate latent-heat release from phase changes in clouds. Laser-based diagnostics of steady plumes reveal Riehl-Malkus type protected cores. They also show that, unlike the constancy implied by early self-similar plume models, the diabatic heating raises the Taylor entrainment coefficient just above cloud base, depressing it at higher levels. This behavior is consistent with cloud-dilution rates found in recent numerical simulations of steady deep convection, and with aircraft-based observations of homogeneous mixing in clouds. In-cloud diabatic heating thus emerges as the key driver in cloud development, and could well provide a major link between microphysics and cloud- scale dynamics.

Andaman Postseismic Deformation Observations: Still Slipping after All These Years?

More than six years after the great (M-w 9.2) Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, postevent processes responsible for relaxation of the coseismic stress change remain controversial. Modeling of Andaman Islands Global Positioning System (GPS) displacements indicated early near-field motions were dominated by slip down-dip of the rupture, but various researchers ascribe elements of relaxation to dominantly poroelastic, dominantly viscoelastic, and dominantly fault slip processes, depending primarily on their measurement sampling and modeling tools used. After subtracting a pre-2004 interseismic velocity, significant transient motion during the 2008.5-2010.5 epoch confirms that postseismic relaxation processes continue in Andaman. Modeling three-component velocities as viscoelastic flow yields a weighted root-mean-square (wrms) misfit that always exceeds the wrms of the measured signal (26.3 mm/yr). The best-fitting models are those that yield negligible deformation, indicating the model parameters have no real physical meaning. GPS velocities are well fit (wrms 4.0 mm/yr) by combining a viscoelastic flow model that best fits the horizontal velocities with similar to 50 cm/yr thrust slip down-dip of the coseismic rupture. Both deep slip and flow respond to stress changes, and each can significantly change stress in the realm of the other; it therefore is reasonable to expect that both transient deep slip and viscoelastic flow will influence surface deformation long after a great earthquake.

Cumulus clouds and convective boundary layers: a tropical perspective on two turbulent shear flows

This paper is a review prepared for the second Marseille Colloquium on the mechanics of turbulence, held in 2011, 50 years after the first. The review covers recent developments in our understanding of the large-scale dynamics of cumulus cloud flows and of the atmospheric boundary layer in the low-wind convective regime that is often encountered in the tropics. It has recently been shown that a variety of cumulus cloud forms and life cycles can be experimentally realized in the laboratory, with the transient diabatic plume taken as the flow model for a cumulus cloud. The plume is subjected to diabatic heating scaled to be dynamically similar to heat release from phase changes in clouds. The experiments are complemented by exact numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes-Boussinesq equations for plumes with scaled off-source heating. The results show that the Taylor entrainment coefficient first increases with heating, reaches a positive maximum and then drops rapidly to zero or even negative values. This reduction in entrainment is a consequence of structural changes in the flow, smoothing out the convoluted boundaries in the non-diabatic plume, including the tongues engulfing the ambient flow. This is accompanied by a greater degree of mixedness in the core flow because of lower dilution by the ambient fluid. The cloud forms generated depend strongly on the history of the diabatic heating profile in the vertical direction. The striking effects of heating on the flow are attributable to the operation of the baroclinic torque due to the temperature field. The mean baroclinic torque is shown to peak around a quasi-cylindrical sheet situated midway between the axis of the flow and the edges. This torque is shear-enhancing and folds down the engulfment tongues. The increase in mixedness can be traced to an explosive growth in the enstrophy, triggered by a strong fluctuating baroclinic torque that acts as a source, especially at the higher wave numbers, thus enhancing the mixedness. In convective boundary layers field measurements show that, under conditions prevailing in the tropics, the eddy fluxes of momentum and energy do not follow the Monin-Obukhov similarity. Instead, the eddy momentum flux is found to be linear in the wind speed at low winds; and the eddy heat flux is, to a first approximation, governed by free convection laws, with wind acting as a small perturbation on a regime of free convection. A new boundary layer code, based on heat flux scaling rather than wall-stress scaling, shows promising improvements in predictive skills of a general circulation model.

Numerical analysis on thermoacoustic prime movers for development of pulse tube cryocoolers

Thermo Acoustic Prime Movers (TAPMs) are being considered as the ideal choice for driving the Pulse Tube Cryocoolers replacing the conventional compressors. The advantages are the absence of moving components and they can be driven by low grade energy as such as fuel, gas, solar energy, waste heat etc. While the development of such TAPMs is in progress in our laboratory, their design and fabrication should be guided by numerical modeling and this may be done by several methods such as solving the energy equation 1], enthalpy flow model 2], CFD 3], etc. We have used CFD technique, since it provides a better insight into the velocity and temperature profiles. The analysis is carried out by varying parameters such as (a) temperature difference across the stack, (b) stack and resonator lengths and (c) different working fluids such as air, nitrogen, argon etc. The theoretical results are compared with the experimental data wherever possible and they are in reasonably good agreement with each other. The analysis indicate that (i) larger temperature difference across the stack leads to increased acoustic amplitude, (ii) longer resonator leads to decrease in frequency with lesser amplitude and (iii) there exists an optimal stack length for the best performance of TAPM. These results are presented here.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization for the Management of Groundwater Resources

Ground management problems are typically solved by the simulation-optimization approach where complex numerical models are used to simulate the groundwater flow and/or contamination transport. These numerical models take a lot of time to solve the management problems and hence become computationally expensive. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) models were developed and coupled for the management of groundwater of Dore river basin in France. The Analytic Element Method (AEM) based flow model was developed and used to generate the dataset for the training and testing of the ANN model. This developed ANN-PSO model was applied to minimize the pumping cost of the wells, including cost of the pipe line. The discharge and location of the pumping wells were taken as the decision variable and the ANN-PSO model was applied to find out the optimal location of the wells. The results of the ANN-PSO model are found similar to the results obtained by AEM-PSO model. The results show that the ANN model can reduce the computational burden significantly as it is able to analyze different scenarios, and the ANN-PSO model is capable of identifying the optimal location of wells efficiently.

Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics

The way in which basal tractions, associated with mantle convection, couples with the lithosphere is a fundamental problem in geodynamics. A successful lithosphere-mantle coupling model for the Earth will satisfy observations of plate motions, intraplate stresses, and the plate boundary zone deformation. We solve the depth integrated three-dimensional force balance equations in a global finite element model that takes into account effects of both topography and shallow lithosphere structure as well as tractions originating from deeper mantle convection. The contribution from topography and lithosphere structure is estimated by calculating gravitational potential energy differences. The basal tractions are derived from a fully dynamic flow model with both radial and lateral viscosity variations. We simultaneously fit stresses and plate motions in order to delineate a best-fit lithosphere-mantle coupling model. We use both the World Stress Map and the Global Strain Rate Model to constrain the models. We find that a strongly coupled model with a stiff lithosphere and 3-4 orders of lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere are best able to match the observational constraints. Our predicted deviatoric stresses, which are dominated by contribution from mantle tractions, range between 20-70 MPa. The best-fitting coupled models predict strain rates that are consistent with observations. That is, the intraplate areas are nearly rigid whereas plate boundaries and some other continental deformation zones display high strain rates. Comparison of mantle tractions and surface velocities indicate that in most areas tractions are driving, although in a few regions, including western North America, tractions are resistive. Citation: Ghosh, A., W. E. Holt, and L. M. Wen (2013), Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics.

Study of dynamic behaviour of recession curves

Since Brutsaert and Neiber (1977), recession curves are widely used to analyse subsurface systems of river basins by expressing -dQ/dt as a function of Q, which typically take a power law form: -dQ/dt=kQ, where Q is the discharge at a basin outlet at time t. Traditionally recession flows are modelled by single reservoir models that assume a unique relationship between -dQ/dt and Q for a basin. However, recent observations indicate that -dQ/dt-Q relationship of a basin varies greatly across recession events, indicating the limitation of such models. In this study, the dynamic relationship between -dQ/dt and Q of a basin is investigated through the geomorphological recession flow model which models recession flows by considering the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (the part of the stream network of the basin draining water at time t). Two primary factors responsible for the dynamic relationship are identified: (i) degree of aquifer recharge (ii) spatial variation of rainfall. Degree of aquifer recharge, which is likely to be controlled by (effective) rainfall patterns, influences the power law coefficient, k. It is found that k has correlation with past average streamflow, which confirms the notion that dynamic -dQ/dt-Q relationship is caused by the degree of aquifer recharge. Spatial variation of rainfall is found to have control on both the exponent, , and the power law coefficient, k. It is noticed that that even with same and k, recession curves can be different, possibly due to their different (recession) peak values. This may also happen due to spatial variation of rainfall. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What mainly controls recession flows in river basins?

The ubiquity of the power law relationship between dQ/dt and Q for recession periods (-dQ/dt kQ(alpha); Q being discharge at the basin outlet at time t) clearly hints at the existence of a dominant recession flow process that is common to all real basins. It is commonly assumed that a basin, during recession events, functions as a single phreatic aquifer resting on a impermeable horizontal bed or the Dupuit-Boussinesq (DB) aquifer, and with time different aquifer geometric conditions arise that give different values of alpha and k. The recently proposed alternative model, geomorphological recession flow model, however, suggests that recession flows are controlled primarily by the dynamics of the active drainage network (ADN). In this study we use data for several basins and compare the above two contrasting recession flow models in order to understand which of the above two factors dominates during recession periods in steep basins. Particularly, we do the comparison by selecting three key recession flow properties: (1) power law exponent alpha, (2) dynamic dQ/dt-Q relationship (characterized by k) and (3) recession timescale (time period for which a recession event lasts). Our observations suggest that neither drainage from phreatic aquifers nor evapotranspiration significantly controls recession flows. Results show that the value of a and recession timescale are not modeled well by DB aquifer model. However, the above mentioned three recession curve properties can be captured satisfactorily by considering the dynamics of the ADN as described by geomorphological recession flow model, possibly indicating that the ADN represents not just phreatic aquifers but the organization of various sub-surface storage systems within the basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tonic current through GABAA receptors and hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated channels modulate resonance properties of rat subicular pyramidal neurons

The subiculum, considered to be the output structure of the hippocampus, modulates information flow from the hippocampus to various cortical and sub-cortical areas such as the nucleus accumbens, lateral septal region, thalamus, nucleus gelatinosus, medial nucleus and mammillary nuclei. Tonic inhibitory current plays an important role in neuronal physiology and pathophysiology by modulating the electrophysiological properties of neurons. While the alterations of various electrical properties due to tonic inhibition have been studied in neurons from different regions, its influence on intrinsic subthreshold resonance in pyramidal excitatory neurons expressing hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels is not known. Using pharmacological agents, we show the involvement of alpha 5 beta gamma GABA(A) receptors in the picrotoxin-sensitive tonic current in subicular pyramidal neurons. We further investigated the contribution of tonic conductance in regulating subthreshold electrophysiological properties using current clamp and dynamic clamp experiments. We demonstrate that tonic GABAergic inhibition can actively modulate subthreshold properties, including resonance due to HCN channels, which can potentially alter the response dynamics of subicular pyramidal neurons in an oscillating neuronal network.

Estimation of `drainable' storage - A geomorphological approach

Storage of water within a river basin is often estimated by analyzing recession flow curves as it cannot be `instantly' estimated with the aid of available technologies. In this study we explicitly deal with the issue of estimation of `drainable' storage, which is equal to the area under the `complete' recession flow curve (i.e. a discharge vs. time curve where discharge continuously decreases till it approaches zero). But a major challenge in this regard is that recession curves are rarely `complete' due to short inter-storm time intervals. Therefore, it is essential to analyze and model recession flows meaningfully. We adopt the wellknown Brutsaert and Nieber analytical method that expresses time derivative of discharge (dQ/dt) as a power law function of Q : -dQ/dt = kQ(alpha). However, the problem with dQ/dt-Q analysis is that it is not suitable for late recession flows. Traditional studies often compute alpha considering early recession flows and assume that its value is constant for the whole recession event. But this approach gives unrealistic results when alpha >= 2, a common case. We address this issue here by using the recently proposed geomorphological recession flow model (GRFM) that exploits the dynamics of active drainage networks. According to the model, alpha is close to 2 for early recession flows and 0 for late recession flows. We then derive a simple expression for drainable storage in terms the power law coefficient k, obtained by considering early recession flows only, and basin area. Using 121 complete recession curves from 27 USGS basins we show that predicted drainable storage matches well with observed drainable storage, indicating that the model can also reliably estimate drainable storage for `incomplete' recession events to address many challenges related to water resources. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.