Tropical deep convection, convective available potential energy and sea surface temperature

The convective available potential energy (CAFE) based on monthly mean sounding has been shown to be relevant to deep convection in the tropics. The variation of CAFE with SST has been found to be similar to the variation of the frequency of deep convection at one station each in the tropical Atlantic and W. Pacific oceans. This suggests a strong link between the frequency of tropical convection and CAFE. It has been shown that CAFE so derived can be interpreted as the work potential of the atmosphere above the boundary layer with ascent in the convective region and subsidence in the surrounding cloud-free region.

Variational principles in evolution

For a one-locus selection model, Svirezhev introduced an integral variational principle by defining a Lagrangian which remained stationary on the trajectory followed by the population undergoing selection. It is shown here (i) that this principle can be extended to multiple loci in some simple cases and (ii) that the Lagrangian is defined by a straightforward generalization of the one-locus case, but (iii) that in two-locus or more general models there is no straightforward extension of this principle if linkage and epistasis are present. The population trajectories can be constructed as trajectories of steepest ascent in a Riemannian metric space. A general method is formulated to find the metric tensor and the surface-in the metric space on which the trajectories, which characterize the variations in the gene structure of the population, lie. The local optimality principle holds good in such a space. In the special case when all possible linkage disequilibria are zero, the phase point of the n-locus genetic system moves on the surface of the product space of n higher dimensional unit spheres in a certain Riemannian metric space of gene frequencies so that the rate of change of mean fitness is maximum along the trajectory. In the two-locus case the corresponding surface is a hyper-torus.

Reverse flotation of silica from Kudremukh iron ore .2. Optimization of flotation process

An experimental programme based on statistical analysis was used for optimizing the reverse Rotation of silica from non-magnetic spiral preconcentrate of Kudremukh iron ore. Flotation of silica with amine and starch as the Rotation reagents was studied to estimate the optimum reagent levels at various mesh of grind. The experiments were first carried out using a two level three factor design. Analysis of the results showed that two parameters namely, the concentration level of the amine collector and the mesh of grind, were significant. Experiments based on an orthogonal design of the hexagonal type were then carried out to determine the effects of these two variables, on recovery and grade of the concentrate. Regression equations have been developed as models. Response contours have been plotted using the 'path of steepest ascent', maximum response has been optimized at 0.27 kg/ton of amine collector, 0.5 kg/ton of starch and mesh of grind of 48.7% passing 300 mesh to give a recovery of 83.43% of Fe in the concentrate containing 66.6% Fe and 2.17% SiO2.

Mechanical properties of Nylon-6/LDPE blends containing an epoxy resin compatibilizer

Binary and ternary blends of nylon-6/low density polyethylene (nylon-6/LDPE) and Nylon-6/LDPE/poly(ethylene-co-glycidyl methacrylate) were prepared by melt mixing. The blends exhibit two phase morphology with LDPE dispersed in the form of spherical domains in the nylon-6 matrix. The mechanical properties of the blends were measured by standard methods. It is shown that the use of the epoxy copolymer as a compatibilizer improves the impact strength of the blend as compared to nylon-6, which is attributed to better stress transfer across the interface due to the compatibilizer. The data for each mechanical property were also fitted into a best fit model equation and the method of steepest ascent was applied to arrive at the optimum composition of the blend for that property.

A Simultaneous Deterministic Perturbation Actor-Critic Algorithm with an Application to Optimal Mortgage Refinancing

We develop a simulation-based, two-timescale actor-critic algorithm for infinite horizon Markov decision processes with finite state and action spaces, with a discounted reward criterion. The algorithm is of the gradient ascent type and performs a search in the space of stationary randomized policies. The algorithm uses certain simultaneous deterministic perturbation stochastic approximation (SDPSA) gradient estimates for enhanced performance. We show an application of our algorithm on a problem of mortgage refinancing. Our algorithm obtains the optimal refinancing strategies in a computationally efficient manner

INST: An Integrated Steering Framework for Critical Weather Applications

Online remote visualization and steering of critical weather applications like cyclone tracking are essential for effective and timely analysis by geographically distributed climate science community. A steering framework for controlling the high-performance simulations of critical weather events needs to take into account both the steering inputs of the scientists and the criticality needs of the application including minimum progress rate of simulations and continuous visualization of significant events. In this work, we have developed an integrated user-driven and automated steering framework INST for simulations, online remote visualization, and analysis for critical weather applications. INST provides the user control over various application parameters including region of interest, resolution of simulation, and frequency of data for visualization. Unlike existing efforts, our framework considers both the steering inputs and the criticality of the application, namely, the minimum progress rate needed for the application, and various resource constraints including storage space and network bandwidth to decide the best possible parameter values for simulations and visualization.

Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

Stochastic optimization for adaptive labor staffing in service systems

Service systems are labor intensive. Further, the workload tends to vary greatly with time. Adapting the staffing levels to the workloads in such systems is nontrivial due to a large number of parameters and operational variations, but crucial for business objectives such as minimal labor inventory. One of the central challenges is to optimize the staffing while maintaining system steady-state and compliance to aggregate SLA constraints. We formulate this problem as a parametrized constrained Markov process and propose a novel stochastic optimization algorithm for solving it. Our algorithm is a multi-timescale stochastic approximation scheme that incorporates a SPSA based algorithm for ‘primal descent' and couples it with a ‘dual ascent' scheme for the Lagrange multipliers. We validate this optimization scheme on five real-life service systems and compare it with a state-of-the-art optimization tool-kit OptQuest. Being two orders of magnitude faster than OptQuest, our scheme is particularly suitable for adaptive labor staffing. Also, we observe that it guarantees convergence and finds better solutions than OptQuest in many cases.

Integration of speckle de-noising and image segmentation using synthetic aperture radar image for flood extent extraction

Flood is one of the detrimental hydro-meteorological threats to mankind. This compels very efficient flood assessment models. In this paper, we propose remote sensing based flood assessment using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image because of its imperviousness to unfavourable weather conditions. However, they suffer from the speckle noise. Hence, the processing of SAR image is applied in two stages: speckle removal filters and image segmentation methods for flood mapping. The speckle noise has been reduced with the help of Lee, Frost and Gamma MAP filters. A performance comparison of these speckle removal filters is presented. From the results obtained, we deduce that the Gamma MAP is reliable. The selected Gamma MAP filtered image is segmented using Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and Mean Shift Segmentation (MSS). The GLCM is a texture analysis method that separates the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral feature whereas MSS is a gradient ascent method, here segmentation is carried out using spectral and spatial information. As test case, Kosi river flood is considered in our study. From the segmentation result of both these methods are comprehensively analysed and concluded that the MSS is efficient for flood mapping.

Cooperative Particle Swarm Optimization Based Receiver for Large-Dimension MIMO-ZPSC Systems

In this paper, we propose a cooperative particle swarm optimization (CPSO) based channel estimation/equalization scheme for multiple-input multiple-output zero-padded single-carrier (MIMO-ZPSC) systems with large dimensions in frequency selective channels. We estimate the channel state information at the receiver in time domain using a PSO based algorithm during training phase. Using the estimated channel, we perform information symbol detection in the frequency domain using FFT based processing. For this detection, we use a low complexity OLA (OverLap Add) likelihood ascent search equalizer which uses minimum mean square (MMSE) equalizer solution as the initial solution. Multiple iterations between channel estimation and data detection are carried out which significantly improves the mean square error and bit error rate performance of the receiver.

Simultaneous perturbation methods for adaptive labor staffing in service systems

We consider the problem of optimizing the workforce of a service system. Adapting the staffing levels in such systems is non-trivial due to large variations in workload and the large number of system parameters do not allow for a brute force search. Further, because these parameters change on a weekly basis, the optimization should not take longer than a few hours. Our aim is to find the optimum staffing levels from a discrete high-dimensional parameter set, that minimizes the long run average of the single-stage cost function, while adhering to the constraints relating to queue stability and service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. The single-stage cost function balances the conflicting objectives of utilizing workers better and attaining the target SLAs. We formulate this problem as a constrained parameterized Markov cost process parameterized by the (discrete) staffing levels. We propose novel simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA)-based algorithms for solving the above problem. The algorithms include both first-order as well as second-order methods and incorporate SPSA-based gradient/Hessian estimates for primal descent, while performing dual ascent for the Lagrange multipliers. Both algorithms are online and update the staffing levels in an incremental fashion. Further, they involve a certain generalized smooth projection operator, which is essential to project the continuous-valued worker parameter tuned by our algorithms onto the discrete set. The smoothness is necessary to ensure that the underlying transition dynamics of the constrained Markov cost process is itself smooth (as a function of the continuous-valued parameter): a critical requirement to prove the convergence of both algorithms. We validate our algorithms via performance simulations based on data from five real-life service systems. For the sake of comparison, we also implement a scatter search based algorithm using state-of-the-art optimization tool-kit OptQuest. From the experiments, we observe that both our algorithms converge empirically and consistently outperform OptQuest in most of the settings considered. This finding coupled with the computational advantage of our algorithms make them amenable for adaptive labor staffing in real-life service systems.